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The Sea Level Rise Story

The Sea Level Rise Story. Bruno Tremblay McGill University. bruno.tremblay@mcgill.ca. Slide from Steven Nerem – University of Colorado. Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures. [ Hansen et al ., 2005]. Observed Sea Level Rise. Observed Sea Level Rise Last 20 Kyr BP.

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The Sea Level Rise Story

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  1. The Sea Level Rise Story Bruno Tremblay McGill University bruno.tremblay@mcgill.ca Slide from Steven Nerem – University of Colorado

  2. Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures [Hansen et al., 2005]

  3. Observed Sea Level Rise

  4. Observed Sea Level RiseLast 20 Kyr BP

  5. Measuring sea level height Radar altimetry Tidal gauge

  6. Cause of Sea Level Rise Eustatic: Water mass added. Steric: Salinity or temperature change Isostatic: Change in the level of land (e.g. thermal effect, plate tectonic, compaction effect) Withdrawal of ground water  land subsidence. Cooling of volcanic island  land subsidence.

  7. Short Term Changes in Sea Level Diurnal-semidiurnal tides Atmospheric pressure – Winds - Evaporation- precipitations  Water density and currents El Niño/southern oscillation Water mass exchange between Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific, Indian Oceans River runoff/floods Seiches Tsunamis Abrupt change in land level

  8. Potential Sea Level Rise Glaciers: 0.5 m Greenland: 6m Antarctica West: 6m East: 51m

  9. Potential Sea Level Change Contributions Thermal Expansion: ~1 meter Mountain Glaciers: 0.5 meters Greenland Ice Melt: 7 meters Antarctic Ice Melt: 60 meters Land Water Storage: < 0.5 meters

  10. Recent contribution to observed sea level rise

  11. Rhone Glacier 2008 1900

  12. Alaska Mass Change from Grace

  13. Ice Sheet Mass Balance 8 mm/yr of precip and calving at equilibrium

  14. Greenland Ice Mass Loss from GRACE 362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL -210 Gt/year = 0.6 mm/year GMSL Credit: Roger Braithwaite

  15. Antarctic Ice Mass Flux from InSAR SLR 0.4 to 0.6 mm/yr -4 km3/yr -2 km3/yr -2 km3/yr +5 km3/yr -37±20 km3/yr -2 km3/yr -3 km3/yr -49±20 km3/yr +48 km3/yr -38 km3/yr -4 km3/yr -114 km3/yr -22 km3/yr -56 km3/yr +33 km3/yr -33 km3/yr +21 km3/yr +5 km3/yr [Rignot, 2005] GRACE

  16. Ice Sheet - Ice Shelf

  17. Wilkins Ice Shelf Larsen B Ice Shelf

  18. Antarctica Without Ice

  19. Recent contribution to observed sea level rise

  20. Sea Level Observations versus Predictions Satellite Observations Tide Gauge Observations Climate Model Predictions (IPCC 3rd Assessment, 2001) [Rahmstorf et al., 2007]

  21. What to Expect in the Future The IPCC 4th Assessment: 0.28 - 0.59 m by 2100 Recent study suggests higher rates (0.5 - 1.4 m by 2100). 5.8° 1.4° [Rahmstorf, 2007]

  22. Greenland Ice Mass Loss Estimates 362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL Luthcke et al. [2006] Krabill et al. [2004] Zwally et al. [2005] Rignot et al. [2006] Velicogna and Wahr [2005] Ramillien et al. [2006] Chen et al. [2006] Velicogna and Wahr [2006] [Cazenave, 2006]

  23. Antarctic Ice Mass Loss Estimates Rignot and Thomas [2002] Zwally et al. [2005] Davis et al. [2005] Velicogna and Wahr [2006] Chen et al. [2006] Ramillien et al. [2006] 362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL [Cazenave, 2006]

  24. Effects of Sea Level Rise 2 meters 1 meter 8 meters 4 meters GFDL

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