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Climate Research in the Caribbean

Climate Research in the Caribbean. Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM) Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona. Caribbean Climate Research. Task Quick idea of some of the climate research being done in the Caribbean. Why Research supports the delivery of services.

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Climate Research in the Caribbean

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  1. Climate Research in the Caribbean Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM) Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona

  2. Caribbean Climate Research • Task Quick idea of some of the climate research being done in the Caribbean. • Why Research supports the delivery of services. • Validation of service (e.g. forecasts) • Establishing linkages especially for socio-economic impacts • Providing justifications and explanations • Assisting in the development and targeting of service • Understanding and helping to express uncertainties and limitations

  3. Caribbean Climate Research “It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…” • Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean. • Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean within the Caribbean. Existing Knowledge Generation Capacity to build on in underpinning the provision of climate services – institutes, personnel… Existing Knowledge Base to underpin the provision of climate services – databases, theories, approaches, questions, limitations…

  4. Caribbean Climate Research What is some of the Research? Research that is trying to at least answer 4 questions (being asked of climate researchers…)

  5. Caribbean Climate Research questions What? 1 2 3 4

  6. What You Mean By Caribbean Climate? 1 2 3 4 Interest: Defining it and its drivers

  7. Caribbean Climatology 1 Rainfall Climatology 1. Dry Season December - April 3 2 2. Rainfall Season May - November Peaks in September/October 3 2 1 3. Bimodal - MSD Early season - May-July Late Season - Aug –Nov 4 Ashby et al. (2004)

  8. Caribbean Climatology High Pressure 1 SSTs 2 3 Easterly Waves 4 Trade Wind Strength + vertical shear Ashby et al. (2004)

  9. Caribbean Climate Research questions What? …is climate? 1 Well What? 2 3 4

  10. Well What About Last Year? 1 2 3 4 Interest: Explaining modes of variability and manifestation of those modes.

  11. Modes of Variability El Niño 1 2 2. Dry season drier in south Caribbean 3 4 1. Late wet season drier in most of the Caribbean 3. Early Wet season drier in most of the Caribbean

  12. Modes of Variability El Niño 1 2 2. Dry season drier in south Caribbean 3 Changes large scale circulations 4 1. Late wet season drier in most of the Caribbean 3. Early Wet season drier in most of the Caribbean Increases shear Warms Caribbean Sea

  13. Modes of Variability • NAO+ ENSO 1 +50% a 3-5 yrs +15-30% a 5-10 yrs 20% a >10 yrs <50% a 3-5 yrs 15-30% a 5-10 yrs 16-33% a >10 yrs 2 3 +60% a 3-5 yrs 15-30% a 5-10 yrs 4 • Combinations of Patterns of variability Gouirand et al. (2011)

  14. Modes of Variability • Gradient Indices 1 Low level wind strengths (CLLJ) 2 3 Gradients in SSTs between Equatorial Pacific and Tropical Atlantic 4 Drier than normal Caribbean basin during midsummer drought Fig. 1 Heterogeneous correlation maps for CCA mode 1 for Jan-Feb.

  15. Modes of Variability Caribbean Rain/Drought Models 1 R2 = 0.76 MJJ RAIN = – 0.0610 +0.3111 NINO3(FMA) – 0.0675 SLP2(FMA) – 0.0299 SLP4(FMA) +0.1187 VSH4(FMA) 2 3 ASON RAIN = –0.0280 + 1.5822 CSST(MJJ) – 0.7227 PACEq(MJJ) – 0.5739 PACTNA(MJJ) R2 = 0.70 4 Fig. 1 Heterogeneous correlation maps for CCA mode 1 for Jan-Feb.

  16. Caribbean Climate Research questions What? …is climate? 1 …about deviations? Well What? 2 So What? 3 4

  17. So What About That Big Drought in 2010? Indices of Extremes 1 3 month SPI Jamaica 2 3 6 month SPI Jamaica 4 Walters et al. (2011)

  18. Climate Extremes Interest: Manifestation and Influences 1 2 3 4 12 month SPI Jamaica

  19. Climate Extremes Interest: Manifestation and Influences 1 2 3 4 SST composite: Flood minus Drought

  20. Caribbean Climate Research questions What? …is climate? 1 …about deviations? Well What? 2 …about extremes? So What? 3 What Next? 4

  21. What about the Next 50 years? 1 2 3 4 Interest: Historical and Future Climate Change and Impacts

  22. Climate Change Historical Change 1 Total rainfall 2 3 Intense rainfall 4 1961-2010 1986-2010 Stephenson et al (2013)

  23. Climate Change Tools RainSiM LARS WG Aqua Crop FutureChange 1 2 3 4

  24. Climate Change General tendency for drying (main Caribbean basin) by end of the century.Drying between 25% and 30% Possibly wetter far north Caribbean NDJ and FMA. Drying exceeds natural variability June-October – wet season dryer! 1 2 3 Mean changes in the annual rainfall for 2071-2099 with respect to 1961-1989, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2. 4 Campbell et al. (2010)

  25. Climate Change Irrespective of scenario the Caribbean expected to warm.Warming between 1 and 5oC Warming greater under A2 scenario. Warming consistent with projections for other parts of globe. Warming far exceeds natural variability 1 2 3 4 Mean changes in the annual mean surface temperature for 2071-2099 with respect to 1961-1989, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2. Campbell et al. (2010)

  26. Climate Change 1 2 • Why? hot hotter 3 4 Taylor et al. (2011)

  27. 27 Climate Change Modeling the impact of climate change on the hydropower potential of Suriname – A study of the Kabalebo river basin HYDRO model, GIS, PRECIS (25 km) 1 2 3 4 Nurmohamed et al. (201`3)

  28. Caribbean Climate Research What? Climatology 1 Variability Well What? 2 So What? Extremes 3 What Next? Climate Change 4

  29. Caribbean Climate Research “It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…” • Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean. • Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean within the Caribbean. Existing Knowledge Generation Capacity to build on in underpinning the provision of climate services – institutes, personnel… Existing Knowledge Base to underpin the provision of climate services – databases, theories, approaches, questions, limitations…

  30. Caribbean Climate Research “It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…” Still many limitations… • Capacity – Technical and Human • Recognition versus support dilemma • Questions outpace capacity • Need to deliver the end before the beginning

  31. Institutions of Climate Research UWI (CSGM and other Campuses, Departments and Institutes) CIMH INSMET 5 C’s Antom De Kom (University of Suriname) Meteorological Services Research arms or Regional and National Sectoral Institutions

  32. Thank You

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