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Spatial Indices of Upwelling

Spatial Indices of Upwelling. 1) Coastal Topography. Premise. Average spatial patterns of coastal ocean processes are strongly influenced by topography and bathymetry. How to quantify coastal topography?. ‘Coastal Anomaly’. Broitman and Kinlan 2006 MEPS, In press. Bays. Headlands.

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Spatial Indices of Upwelling

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  1. Spatial Indices of Upwelling 1) Coastal Topography

  2. Premise • Average spatial patterns of coastal ocean processes are strongly influenced by topography and bathymetry

  3. How to quantify coastal topography?

  4. ‘Coastal Anomaly’ Broitman and Kinlan 2006 MEPS, In press

  5. Bays Headlands

  6. COASTAL STRUCTURE -1.0 (Embayments) Along-coast Distance (km) Normalized residual from smoothed coast 0 (Headlands) +1.0 Scale of Smoothing (km)

  7. COASTAL STRUCTURE Smoothing Scale=1000 km

  8. COASTAL STRUCTURE Smoothing Scale=50 km

  9. Coastal Topographic Index Chile WNA S. Africa

  10. Cons Pros • Easily calculated • Data readily available • Arbitrarily high resolution • Can index processes at multiple scales • Indirect index; index of upwelling or any other process depends on nature of coupling • Not dynamic (no time component) • Oversimplified?

  11. SST

  12. Spatial Indices of Upwelling 2) SST-derived indices

  13. Coastal SST latitude time longitude

  14. Latitudinal mean at each pixel

  15. Topographic Index and dSST Spatial Series

  16. Correlation between Topo and dSST indices C) Topo vs. Δ SST

  17. Correlation with Bakun Regional Index

  18. Ecosystem Structure

  19. Spatial patterns of kelp and phytoplankton Areal cover Biomass

  20. Spatial Cross-Correlations chl-a vs. kelp

  21. Spatial Cross-Correlations A) Topo vs. kelp B) Topo vs. chl-a C) Topo vs. Δ SST

  22. Jones et al 1988, Cont Shelf Res

  23. Alongcoast scales: Variogram Analysis Approximately the same characteristic scale

  24. Variable Nugget (SE) Sill (SE) Range (SE) (km) Kelp 0.35 (0.09) 0.65 (0.09) 188 (100) Chl-a 0.13 (0.08) 0.87 (0.08) 178 (34) ΔSST† 0.008 (0.007) 0.992 (0.007) 151 (18) Coast Anomaly 0.04 (0.03) 0.96 (0.03) 161 (40) Alongcoast scales: Variogram Analysis

  25. Onshore Community Patterns

  26. WNA 73 sites along 6000 km of coast South Africa 58 sites along 2000 km of coast Chile 26 sites 1000 km of coast

  27. What scale of coastal features matter to the process you’re interested in? Correlation between variable of interest and topographic index at each smoothing scale

  28. 0.6 0.4 0.2 Cross-Correlation 0 -0.2 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Along-coast Lag Distance (km) Scale of pattern is just part of the question Peak @ 15 km in the poleward direction

  29. Correlations with Coastal Anomaly – South Africa

  30. Correlation with Coastal Anomaly – Mussels CHILE SOUTH AFRICA

  31. Chile – Upwelling-Recruitment Dynamics Seen in Bare Space?

  32. Coastal Topography and Physical Forcing CHILE SOUTH AFRICA

  33. Correlation with Coastal Anomaly: Mussels CHILE SOUTH AFRICA

  34. Correlation with Coastal Anomaly: Trophic Grps SOUTH AFRICA CHILE

  35. Long-term Average Recruitment vs. Topography at 21 Coastal Sites Green=Chthamalus Black=Balanus

  36. Multiple regression with: Topo10km, Topo150km, Coastal Coordinate (linear latitudinal trend) Balanus r2=0.84, p<0.0001

  37. Other processes correlated with topography

  38. Aside… Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Data Integration & Complex Hypothesis Testing

  39. Site 1 Santa Barbara Site 2 Site 3 Site 4 Offshore Larval Pool Nearshore Ocean Offshore Ocean

  40. Sea Temp (SST) Recruitment Santa Barbara Recruitment Current ChlorophyllA Recruitment Current Current Recruitment Current Offshore Larval Pool 16 points in time, each describing previous month Offshore Ocean Nearshore Ocean

  41. i = space index , t = time index 2  TS=0 Onshore Delivery Offshore Larval Pool Combine these to get Recruitment Data: SSTt-TS Rit Git Rit~Poisson(FtHitei) Likelihood: i~N(0,2) Logit(Hit)= 0+1Git+g g~N(0,m2) Links: Ft = k + STS*SSTt-TS k,S 2 0, 1, m2 Parameters: N(0,10-3) vague IG(10-3,10-3) vague IG(2,10) informative N(0,10-3) vague Priors:

  42. Chl , gate+errror, Gamma SST , gate+errror, Gamma SST , gate+errror, Poisson SST , gate+errror, Poisson, site effects

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