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APEC Climate Center (APCC) Climate Outlook for AMJ 2010

This report presents the APEC Climate Center's climate outlook for the Asia-Pacific region for the months of April, May, and June 2010. It includes information on trade and investment, economic cooperation, seasonal forecast procedures, participating institutions, forecast verification, and dissemination.

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APEC Climate Center (APCC) Climate Outlook for AMJ 2010

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  1. APEC Climate Center (APCC) Climate Outlook for AMJ 2010 Presented by : R. H. Kripalani Investigators : Soo-Jin Sohn, Young-Mi Min

  2. Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) To meet the Bogor Goals of free and open trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region • Trade and Investment Liberalization • Business Facilitation • Economic and Technical Cooperation

  3. Procedure of Seasonal Forecast APEC Member Economics Participating Institutions APEC Climate Center (APCC) MME Seasonal Production Data Collection Quality Check Decision on the official APCC forecasts Deterministic Forecasts (4 DMMEs) Probabilistic Forecast (PMME) • 17 models • Hindcast • Forecast • Historical • Observation Communication with model holders Outlook Verification (Previous forecast, Hindcast) Graphics (Individual models, DMMEs, PMME, verification) Dissemination Decision on the model set Pre- processing Application (Index forecast, statistical downscaling) 20th 10th 15th

  4. Participating Institutes

  5. Participating Models

  6. Methodology: Deterministic MME Schemes Simple Composite Method : SCM Simple composite of individual forecast with equal weighting. Step-wise Pattern Projection Method : Simple composite of individual forecasts, after correction by statistical downscaling using SPPM. SPM Multiple Regression Method: Optimally weighted composite of individual forecasts. The weighting coefficient is obtained by SVD based regression. MRG Synthetic Multi-Model Super Ensemble Method: SSE Weighted combination of statistically corrected multi model output.

  7. 2010 AMJ Forecast (PREC)

  8. 2010 AMJ Forecast (T850)

  9. Updated Participating Models in MME * GCPS: Global Climate Prediction System

  10. 2010 AMJ Forecast (PREC)

  11. 2010 AMJ Forecast (T850)

  12. Hindcast Verification: Deterministic MME (60E-130E, 10S-30N)

  13. The APEC Climate Center Experimental climate Outlook for Mar-Aug 2010 based on 6-month 1-tier MME Forecasts Investigators : Doo Young Lee and Hye-In Jeong

  14. Experimental 6-month 1-tier MME Forecast • Launched semi-operationally since late 2008.

  15. Model description CGCM (Tier-1) Models (seasonal 6-month Experimental system)

  16. Simple Composite Method (SCM): Simple composite of individual forecast with equal weighting. Experimental Designs and Data set Hindcast Periods & Target Season • APCC 6-month climate forecasts are based on 1-tier predictions from 6 institutions in the APEC region • 6-month Integration during the period of1983-2005 (23 years) • SCM (6month MME) : MAMJJA (spring, summer) season started from Feb 1st using CGCM

  17. Predicted Niño3 Index • Indian Ocean Dipole mode index • Spatial distributions of forecasted SST Anomalies (SCM) over the tropical Indo-Pacific

  18. Hindcast Verification (Niño3 and IOD indices for MAMJJA)

  19. APCC MAM

  20. APCC JJA

  21. NCEP MAM

  22. NCEP JJA

  23. POAMA MAM

  24. POAMA JJA

  25. SINT MAM

  26. SINT JJA

  27. SUT1 MAM

  28. SUT1 JJA

  29. UHT1 MAM

  30. UHT1 JJA

  31. SCM (Simple Composite Method) MAM

  32. SCM (Simple Composite Method) JJA

  33. Hindcast Verification (Precipitation, Globe)

  34. Thank You.

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