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Economic Recovery Plan

Economic Recovery Plan. Mogadishu, 13 th June 2013. Overview. Outline Key linkages Organizing the process Key development partners Possible WB support I-PRSP? Key questions Timelines. ERP Outline. Stage 1: Socio-Economic Recovery Strategy (ready for Brussels conference)

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Economic Recovery Plan

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  1. Economic Recovery Plan Mogadishu, 13th June 2013

  2. Overview • Outline • Key linkages • Organizing the process • Key development partners • Possible WB support • I-PRSP? • Key questions • Timelines

  3. ERP Outline Stage 1: Socio-Economic Recovery Strategy (ready for Brussels conference) • Short vision statement on Economic and Social Recovery (agreed at top level) • Guiding principles and policy framework (including overview of economy) • Outline macroeconomic and fiscal framework • Priorities for quick socio-economic recovery with provisional flagship intervention areas Products: • Socio-Economic Recovery Strategy report (20 pages), in English & Somali • Broad Outline of the ERP and Roadmap for completion of the Plan (key steps with dates and deliverables) • Roadmap to I-PRSP, based on he one-plan principle

  4. ERP Outline contd Stage 2: Full Economic Recovery Plan (ready by the end of the year) • Stage 1 Strategy report (some Sections expanded/updated) • Expanded macroeconomic and fiscal framework • Revenue mobilization strategy • Priority sectors for quick economic recovery, including some flagship projects, agreed through regional consultations and line ministries and within well-defined financial resource scenarios (i.e. not an un-prioritized and un-costed wish list) • Intergovernmental implementation: framework for implementing the ERP country-wide • 2014 Budget documents reflect the report (Macro-fiscal framework etc.) Products: • Full Economic Recovery Plan (40 pages plus annexes), in English & Somali • More detailed reports/annexes on: revenue strategy and regional linkages • Annual planning and budget guidelines for 2015 and beyond • (If necessary) Supplementary Budget to accommodate funded priority projects

  5. ERP Main Objectives • Develop common vision among leadership for FGS pathway to economic recovery • Possibly including Economic committee in parliament? • Set out principles to guide this transition • Role of FGS in promoting economic recovery? • Role of FGS in service delivery? • Role of FGS with respect to regions/districts? Functions ass. • Role of development partners? • Roadmap for implementation through annual planning and budgeting – guidelines as an Annex • Identify priority sectors for a quick economic recovery • Lay foundations for simple macroeconomic framework (including database) • Identify options for improved revenue mobilization

  6. ERP Objectives contd • Some ideas to bear in mind: • Keep it simple • One plan/process: avoid multiple planning exercises • Manage expectations • Be inclusive (sectors, regions, parliament, civil society, donors etc) • Remain focused on objectives

  7. Key Linkages • New Deal • Involve New Deal Desk team, key development partners (UN) • One vision, one plan • Economic Foundations • Revenue and Services • Compact • Annual budget – involve DG Budget and team • PFM Reform Strategy & Action Plan • Aid strategy development process • Aid financing principles & architecture • Brussels conference (September)

  8. Key Linkages contdone possible approach to consider…

  9. Organizing the process • Ministerial Task Force (can we use existing body such as New Deal high-level taskforce?) • Members: Minister of Finance and Economic Planning (chair TBD?), other key ministries, OoP, OPM • Role: Strategic direction for the process, keep Cabinet informed, approve key decisions • Technical working group • Members: MoFEP, other key ministries relevant NGO’s and the private sector, OoP, OPM, CBS, development partners • Role: Draft the plan • New Deal/Compact groups (especially Economic Foundations and Revenue and Services), leading to… • …Sector working groups • Members: sector line ministries, development partners • Role: Draft sector inputs to the plan

  10. Organizing the process contd Ministerial taskforce (New Deal?) New Deal High-Level Taskforce Technical working group New Deal Groups [To start before Brussels] Economic Foundations Revenue & Services

  11. Key development partners • Based on PFM donor coordination matrix, the following development partners could be involved in direct support to MoFEP: • AfDB • EU • IMF • Sweden • UNDP • World Bank • Other development partners supporting relevant sector ministries may also contribute support

  12. WB Support to MoFEP • PREM team (overall support): Geoff Handley, Ian Mills, AlirezaZadeh • Specific additional consultancy inputs support: • Revenue mobilization • Macro-fiscal framework • Planning & budgeting guidelines • Macroeconomic database & statistical capacity • Inter-governmental linkages

  13. Interim-PRSP? • This is required to qualify for debt relief • Usually comprises: • Simple macro-fiscal framework • Summary of available evidence on poverty • Roadmap towards a more comprehensive & participatory plan

  14. Key questions • Should the plan cover all sector ministries or primary economic ones? • How can MoFEP build a consensus with OoP and OPM? • Proliferation of plans – what are we adding? Mapping?

  15. Tentative Timeline

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