Housing Studies Association conference paper

1. Housing Studies Association conference paper Assessing the growth of the private rented sector: choice versus constraints Paul Sissons and Donald Houston 16th April 2014

2. Outline • Aims and research questions • The scale of growth in the PRS • Perspectives on PRS growth • Tenure transitions • A changing PRS? • Tenant satisfaction in the PRS • Next steps

3. Research questions • Significant growth of the PRS raises a number of questions about the drivers of growth, experiences of the tenure and policy for the sector. Our focus includes: • How have the characteristics of tenants in the sector changed? • How have tenants’ experiences of the sector changed? • Does the growth of the sector appear to be driven by choice or constraint?

4. A growing private rented sector Source: Office for National Statistics reporting of Labour Force Survey 1980-2008; English Housing Survey 2008-9 onwards

5. Characteristics of the PRS • PRS plays a number of different roles: • Relatively affordable • Immediate access • Rent/partial rent covered by state benefit for tenants on low income • Facilitates spatial mobility • People: Students; Mobile workers; Aspiring homeowners; Older people • Places: Cities; Remoter rural districts

6. Perspectives on PRS growth in 1990s • 1991-2001 PRS growth in… • Districts: Cities; Mining & Manufacturing • Regions: Northwest; West Midlands; Wales • Economic position: Permanently sick; Students • Household types: Lone parents; Multifamily households • Cities, south and east: • Substituting for homeownership • Mobile workers and students • Less prosperous districts • Substituting for social renting • Economically inactive

7. The geography of the PRS: I

8. The geography of the PRS: II

9. Flows out of the PRS by destination: 1991-2008 (Source: Tenure moves - three-year rolling average from BHPS. House prices - ONS reporting of Regulated Mortgage Survey. Adjusted using RPI)

10. Characteristics of PRS growth: 1991-2008

11. Characteristics of PRS – age: 1991-2008

12. Characteristics of PRS – household type: 1991-2008

13. Characteristics of PRS – finances: 1991-2008

14. Characteristics of PRS – satisfaction: 1991-2008

15. Emerging Findings and Conclusions • Rapid growth in the PRS – now larger than the social rented sector • Flows from PRS- SRS decline consistently since the early 1990s • Flows to owner-occupation decline from circa 2000 onwards • Characteristics of growth in the PRS from 2001-2008 appears less distinct than that observed in the 1990s. • The profile is less disadvantaged and most of the growth is among those in employment • But tenants are on average getting older • Some evidence suggests dilution of dominant tenure role in facilitating labour mobility • Satisfaction rising; financial stress falling; move aspiration falling • Change from short to longer-term tenure?

16. Next steps – exploring choice/constraint • Extension to post-recession (Understanding Society) • Comparison of short versus long-term renters • Examine the role of geography/area type post-2001 • Modelling of tenure choice: • How are inherent tenure preferences changing over time? • Does the PRS comprise two (or more) segments within it?

17. Thank you

18. References • Ferrari, E. (2014) The Social Value of Housing in Straitened Times: the View from England. Housing Studies, in press. • Houston, D. and Sissons, P. (2011) The Changing Geography of Privately Rented Housing in England and Wales. Urban Studies, 49(4), p.795-819. • Hulse, K., Jones, C. and Pawson, H. (2010) Tenurial ‘competition’, tenure dynamics and the private rented sector: an international reappraisal. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 3(2), p.138-156. • Kemp, P.A. (2011) Low-income tenants in the Private Rental Housing Market. Housing Studies, 26(7-8), p.1019-1034.