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Analysing the Relationship between Risk and Trust

Analysing the Relationship between Risk and Trust. By Audun Jøsang and Stéphzne Lo Presti. Roadmap. Risk-Trust in Literature Measuring Risk-Trust Decision via Risk Balancing Trust and Risk Conclusion. Risk-Trust in Literature. subjectivity. uncertainty. Concept of Trust

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Analysing the Relationship between Risk and Trust

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  1. Analysing the Relationship between Risk and Trust By AudunJøsang and Stéphzne Lo Presti

  2. Roadmap • Risk-Trust in Literature • Measuring Risk-Trust • Decision via Risk • Balancing Trust and Risk • Conclusion

  3. Risk-Trust in Literature subjectivity uncertainty • Concept of Trust • Trust is the extent to which one party is willing to depend on somebody, or something, in a given situation with a feeling of relative security, even though negative consequences are possible. • Concept of Risk • Anticipated hazard, measurable • Trust vs. Risk • Both difficult to scale • Both upon uncertainty and unpredictability • Relationship between them (antecedent, alternative, outcome)? risk

  4. Risk-Trust in Literature • A risk-trust model by fuzzy logic [Manchala1998] • (trans_history, cost) -> trust

  5. Measuring Risk-Trust : Decision via Risk • Expected Utility (EU) • : non-linear utility function of monetary value • : risk averse • : risk seeking • : risk-neutral • Expected Monetary Value (EV) • : the monetary investment/bet • : the probability of the th outcome • : the gain factor of the outcome, given • Risk-Neutral Case () Expected Gain

  6. Measuring Risk-Trust : Decision via Risk • For Decision • : probability of successful transaction • : gain factor to a successful transaction • : loss factor to a failed transaction

  7. Measuring Risk-Trust : Decision via Risk • For Decision • : the total capital • : fraction of the total capital • varies in the same direction of and • E.g. • : factor moderating the influence of , or risk attitude • Low – risk-taking; high – risk-aversion;

  8. Measuring Risk-Trust : Balancing Trust- Risk • “The outcome of the transaction depends on somebody or something and that the relying party is uncertain about the outcome of the transaction.” • Paraphrase : the reliability of for producing a successful outcome • Reliability Trust: the trusting party’s probability estimate of success of the transaction

  9. Measuring Risk-Trust : Balancing Trust - Risk • Decision Trust • to normalize different between ’s reliability and the cut-off probability on an agent’s decision surface (risk attitude), given (1) risk attitude defined by a decision surface, and (2) transaction outcome upon and • : decision surface • : probability producing a successful outcome, given and • : cut-off probability on for the same and

  10. Measuring Risk-Trust : Balancing Trust - Risk • Decision Trust • (0,-1), (,0), and (1,1) • Decision trust depended on a distance between and • , trusting for the transaction • , undecided • , not trusting

  11. Conclusion Summary Shortcomings: Success of an operation is more complex than reliability of Behavior modelling • To derive a computational model for risk-trust • Reliability trust: probability of success of the transaction • Decision trust: considering risk attitude, complete the notion of trust

  12. Thank You

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