Regionalism in Asia

1. Regionalism in Asia April 27, 2006 Regional Anatomy I Ken JIMBO

2. Mid-term Report • Select One from following Five Topics on ‘Regionalism’ • ‘Regionalism and Regionalization in Asia (or in certain region)’ • ‘Open-Regionalism’ vs. ‘Bilateral Networks’: Comparative Analysis • Rise of FTA/EPA in World Economy • Economic Integration and Regionalism • Security Interdependence and Regionalism • Socio-Cultural Interaction and Regionalism • Essay Guidance • Essay Length: 1200 words (minimum)　⇒　academic format • Essay Deadline: 31st March, 2006 • Software: Microsoft Word (Attached File) • To be Submitted to: kenj@sfc.keio.ac.jp

3. Review 1)Three Waves of Regionalism • The First Wave (1950-60s) • Between small and medium States • Failure in achieving economic development • The Second Wave (1980-90s) • ‘Open Regionalism’‘Inclusive (nested) Mechanism’ • Stunted Progress (early marginalization) • The Third Wave (2000s-?) • Bundle of ‘bilateral networks’ • Regional endorsement of ‘ad-hoc mechanisms’

4. Review 2)Rise of the Third Wave of Regionalism? Level of Cooperation/ Integration Third Wave Regionalism ? Second Wave Regionalism Timelines

5. Review 3)Globalism / Regionalism / Bilateralism and the ‘Recursion’ of the Region Economic Sphere Security Sphere Global FrameworkGATT / IMF UN / Multinational Mega-Regionalism APEC ARF / OSCE Regionalism EU / ASEAN +3 EU / ASEAN Coalition Multilateral FTAs Anti-Terrorism Bilateralism Bilateral FTAs Bilateral Alliance

6. Evolution of Regional Integration State Integration Degree of Integration Economic Union EU Common Market euro(2002) F Affairs &Defense C. Economic Policies C. Market & Infra FTA(1958- ) BENELUX Tariff U (’55) Free Trade Area: FTA MERCOSUR Tariff Union NAFTA Free Inv. & Service C.Economic Policies C. Tariff Custom Union(‘86- ) AFTA Free Inv. & Services FTA(1989- ) FTA(1992- ) ASEAN-6(’67) ASEAN-10(’99) + China (2010?） USA+Canada(’92) +Mexico(’94) B&A + P&U(’95) EEC-6(’58) EU-12(’86) EU-15(’95) EU-27 ? FTAA-34 ? (2005?) ASEAN=21% 54% 21% 62% East Asia=40% ------ INTRA-REGIONAL TRADE SHARE (%) OUT OF TOTAL TRADE -------- Source: Kakazu + TY

7. Regionalism in AsiaGeneral Perspective • Cultural Diversity • Language • Religion • Historical Backgrounds • Pre-Modern Asia (-1840?) • China-centric (tributary) regional order • Modern Asia • Great power imperialism (1840-1945) • Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere (1920-1945)

8. Post-WWII and Asia • Decolonization and Nation Building • Sovereignty and Nation Building • Economic Re-construction • Cold War Fragmentation • China Civil War (1947-49) • Korean War (1950-53) • Vietnam War (1965-74)

9. Post-Cold War ExperienceEurope and Asia Compared • In Europe, both the security (NATO) and economic structures (EEC→EC) created the basis for subsequent institutionalization of intra-European ties • Many of America’s Asian allies had far stronger ties across the Pacific than they had among themselves

10. Cold War Structure and Asia • Alliance Structure • Europe: NATO • Asia: Bilateral Alliances (San Francisco System) plus SEATO and ANZUS • Threat Perception • Europe: USSR + Eastern Europe • Asia: USSR / China / North Korea / North Vietnam

11. US-led Alliance System (Cold War) Warsaw Pact NATO European Theater (Regional Approach) Asian Theater (Bilateral Approach) Bilateral (Hub-Spokes) Alliances

12. Major Conflicts in Asia • Northeast Asia • Divided Korea • Divided China • Sino-USSR Confrontation • Southeast Asia • Sino-Vietnam Confrontation • Sino-India Confrontation • Internal Revolt (communism, fundamentalism)

13. Wake of ‘Regionalization’ in Asia • ‘De Facto’ Economic Integration • Japan’s Economic Success • Foreign aid, trade, investment and technology transfe • ‘Flying Geese’ Model (Kojima, 2001) • Production Networks • Fragmentation Model • Production Cycle Model (R. Vernon, 1966) • Benefit of export-oriented ‘late comer’ • ASEAN Integration (Political/Economic) • Bali Concord / TAC • AFTA / ASEAN 10 • ASEAN Community (economic/security/socio-cultural)

14. Flying Geese Model (1) Source: http://www.grips.ac.jp/module/prsp/FGeese.htm

15. Flying Geese Model (2) Source: http://www.grips.ac.jp/module/prsp/FGeese.htm

16. Product Cycle Model (1)

17. Product Cycle Model (2)

18. Product Cycle Model (3)

19. De Facto Economic Integration (1980) ３１９．１ ２０７．９ ４０９．１ ２７６．７ ６１５．９ ４２８．５ ３６６．９ ７２．８ １９８．０ ３６６．６ ２３９．１ Asia Europe ２７４．０ （unit：onehundredmilliondollars）

20. De Facto Economic Integration (2000) 　　１４４０．１ （４．５times） ６４５．１ （３．１times） 　　　　　２１４０．９ 　（５．２times） 　　１３３３．１ 　　（４．８times） 　　１６４５．９ （２．７times） ３１１４．２ （７．３times） １９７３．１ （５．４times） ７２．８ 　　１２４９．２ 　（５．２times） 　　　４８４．６ （４．０）times １６８４．３ （４．６times） Asia ２１９３．１ （８．０times） （unit：onehundredmilliondollars）

22. ASEAN’s Regionalization Process • Chronology • 1967: Bangkok Declaration • 1971: Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) • 1976: Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) • 1976: ASEAN Concord I • 1992: ASEAN Declaration on the South China Sea • 1995: Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone • 1997: ASEAN Vision 2020 • 2003: ASEAN Concord II • ASEAN (Bali) Concord II and ASEAN Community • ASEAN Economic Community • ASEAN Security Community • ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community

23. APEC Process(Rise of Second Wave)

24. ARF Process(Rise of Second Wave) Mechanism for Conflict Resolution Preventive Diplomacy (PD) Confidence Building (CBM)

25. Four Drivers of East Asian Linkages • Governments • In European regionalism, the focus on national governments is a given. Multinational governmental cooperation results in formal regional organizations. • In Asia, although governments have been key players, regional integration were not always driven by formal process. • Corporations • Regional trade, investment and cross-national production networks.

26. Four Drivers of East Asian Linkages (contd.) • Functional Cooperation • Ad-hoc Problem-oriented Bodies • Growing Middle-class Networks • Similar Life-style • Common Social Security Concerns • Middle Class Culture Sharing • “Standard Package” (car, TV, video, PC, cosmetics…etc)

27. Middle Class in China

28. Reference • T.J. Pempel, “Introduction: Emerging Webs of Regional Connectedness” T.J. Pempel ed., Remapping East Asia: The Construction of a Region (Cornell University Press, 2005) • Etel Solingen “East Asian Regional Institutions: Characteristics, Sources, Distinctiveness” T.J. Pempel Ed., op.cit. • Paul Evans, “Between Regionalism and Regionalization: Policy Networks and the Nascent East Asian Institutional Identity” T.J. Pempel ed., op.cit. • Edward Lincoln, East Asian Economic Regionalism (Brookings Institution Press, 2004) • Peter J. Katzenstein, World of Regions: Asia and Europe in the American Imperium (Cornell University Press, 2005) Ch.2,3,4 • Kiyoshi Kojima, The 'flying geese' model of Asian economic development: origin, theoretical extensions, and regional policy implications. Journal of Asian Economics 11, 2000, pp.375-401. • Raymond Vernon, "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle." Quarterly Journal of Economics 80 (May 1966), pp.190-207. • Takashi Shiraishi, “The Third Wave: Southeast Asia and Middle-Class Formation in the Making of Region” Peter Katzenstein and Takashi Shiraishi eds., Beyond Japan: The Dynamics of East Asian Regionalism (Cornell University Press, 2006)