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Attribution of Responsibility in Java Climate Model climate.be/jcm SB-24 , 17 May 2006

Attribution of Responsibility in Java Climate Model www.climate.be/jcm SB-24 , 17 May 2006. Ben Matthews (UCL- ASTR, Belgium) matthews@climate.be with Jean-Pascal vanYpersele (UCL- ASTR, Belgium) LUC module of JCM developed by: Christiano Pires de Campos (UFRJ-IVIG, Brazil)

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Attribution of Responsibility in Java Climate Model climate.be/jcm SB-24 , 17 May 2006

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  1. Attribution of Responsibility in Java Climate Modelwww.climate.be/jcmSB-24 , 17 May 2006 Ben Matthews (UCL- ASTR, Belgium) matthews@climate.be with Jean-Pascal vanYpersele (UCL- ASTR, Belgium) LUC module of JCM developed by: Christiano Pires de Campos (UFRJ-IVIG, Brazil) development of JCM for this topic also inspired by Jesper Gunderman (DEA-CCAT, Denmark)

  2. Attribution of Responsibility in Java Climate Modelwww.climate.be/jcm • JCM contributed to ACCC / MATCH since 2002 • Core science based on IPCC-TAR methods • Includes all TAR gases (>30) • IVIG flexible model for Land-Use-Change Emissions • Climate-Carbon and chemistry feedbacks • Individual Countries or various Region-Sets • Efficient “Tracer” attribution method (also “Timeslice”) • Interactive model on web enables user to explore sensitivity to assumptions / uncertainties • Also useful for probabilistic analysis • Documentation update in progress. Open-source code. Note: following slides are snapshots from interactive demonstration at SBSTA side-event

  3. JCM5 Demo 1: Core science components. JCM5 core science modules are based on IPCC-TAR methods, including Bern Carbon Cycle model and UDEB climate model calibrated to GCMs, and some feedbacks. Radiative Forcing includes all TAR gases (>30). The fit to measured concentrations and temperatures may be analysed.

  4. JCM5 Demo 2: Regional Emissions. Regional emissions data for fossil and landuse CO2, CH4 and N2O are the input to calculating contributions to temperature. JCM5 can interpolate from various datasets to individual countries or region-sets (25 here as map)

  5. JCM5 Demo 3: Contributions to Temperature. Absolute contributions (top left), include unattributed effect of other gases (grey), aerosols (cyan) and solar/volcanos (yellow), which are excluded from relative shares (top right). Attributed concentrations (below left) fall soon after the final attribution year (2002), as do temperatures, but attributed sea-level rise (below right) continues rising.

  6. JCM5 Demo 4: Effect of Land-Use-Change: Changing parameters of the LUC Emissions module (from IVIG), such as the biome classification map, significantly changes both absolute and relative contributions

  7. JCM5 Demo 5: Effect of Carbon-Climate feedbacks. Temperature feedbacks on ocean chemistry and soil respiration have a large effect on absolute contributions but not on relative, even with high climate sensitivity (see also results in MATCH paper1).

  8. JCM5 Demo 6: Policy relevance? Regional contributions to temperature change are policy relevant if their distribution is significantly different from that of current emissions. Top right: attributed temperature rise / current emissions (CO2 equivalent using GWP). Below left: contributions to temperature per capita, below right – one variant of applying Brazilian proposal

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