研究背景說明

1. 擘劃台灣次世代產業發展之策略思維Strategic Thinking for Taiwan’s Next Generation Industry Development杜紫宸 主任工研院 產業經濟與趨勢研究中心中華民國 九十五 年 八 月 三 日

2. 研究背景說明 國內整體產業發展近年來遇到了極大之瓶頸 產官學研對於產業發展方向與策略出現嚴重分歧 經續會將於本週召開，應廣納產業智庫之建言 應以未來十年產業發展願景回推今日該有之策略

3. 高 2015 經濟成長 弱 環境永續 低 強 弱 強 社會公義 台灣經濟均衡發展理念與共識 Q1：我們要發展的究竟是等邊矩形，還是最佳不對稱 Q2：環境永續  優質生活?

4. 軟性經濟創意者 Innovator of Soft Economy 產業技術領導者 Value Initiator and Champion 生活形態先驅者 Pioneer of New Lift Style 全球資源整合者 Hub of International Network 台灣產業發展的四種願景角色定位

5. 往整合全球資源移動 2006 vs 2015 理想定位：國際價值鏈 填答者明日-今日位移比較

6. 2006 vs 2015 理想定位：產業驅動引擎 往軟性知識服務移動 填答者明日-今日位移比較

7. 往國際市場考量移動 2006 vs 2015 理想定位：創新驅動來源 填答者明日-今日位移比較

8. 實現願景所需之條件 溫和的兩岸關係 政策即時反應需求 具備研發科技能力之人才 具國際觀與外語能力的人民 發達的資通訊設施 未來產業應具備特質 提高國際競爭力 具高附加價值 建立獨特優勢的可能技術 改善國人生活品質 有助國家在區域中的發展與地位 資料來源： 工研院產業經濟與趨勢研究中心( IEK )今年七月針對國內前五百大製造業、前五百大服務業、與五百位社會各階層意見領袖所做意見調查結果，最終問卷回收率約 23%

9. 策略一 產業組合 優化與均衡 策略二 產業價值鏈結構調整 策略八 國家創新系統效能強化 策略三 積極發展區域策略定位 產業結構 與組合調整 策略七 高質人力 開發與運用 策略四 發展具本土特色之應用 基礎要素 強化 市場擴張 與創造 策略六 優質產業與資源競爭機制之建構 策略五 強化台商海外投資與國內產業連結 未來十年台灣產業發展之八大策略構面

10. 以科技整合觀點建構次世代產業群組 ── Smart Materials Integrated Microsystems Information Technology GeneticManipulation 體型 奈米技術 概念 處理 仿生體 智慧系統 材料應用 機能 生醫材料學 生體模仿學 生物有機體

11. 以資源效用觀點建構次世代產業群組 Renewing products and business concepts Modern process and production technologies in business applications Environment and energy Sustainable and eco-efficient solutions Health and well-being Human approach, quality and productivity in health care Services Quality and productivity New service businesses Security and safety Security at work and in systems Information security Work and leisure Productive, creative andmotivating Enjoyment and experiencesin leisure ICT Mobility、Broadband communications、Software-intensive products and systems、 Knowledge and content management、Test environments for newservices & applications... Biotechnology Systems biology Bioprocess technology Combining biosciences with ICT Nanotechnology Innovative nano-structured materials New structures for nano-electronics Nano-sensors and actuators Materials technology Interdependencies between properties, structures and production Surface phenomena Materials design 應 用 焦 點 科 技 焦 點 Business Competence & Development

12. 產業科技組合平衡分析暨策略意涵 金礦 民間企業的衝刺機會 寶山 政府資源的聚焦點 虎穴 觀望或強化避險措施 雞肋 民間企業的利基市場 陷阱 重新配置資源

13. 以全球化思維重新檢視科技產業發展機會 • 由於技術資訊透通、要素流通性提高，全球重要科技產業 (資訊、半導體、汽車、生物科技) 依其價值鏈垂直分工、水平整合之態勢，日益明顯，非單一國家所能抗衡 • 因應開發中國家製造優勢崛起之威脅，台商最佳策略實為進入當地、掌控資源要素，進而有效阻斷潛在競爭者援引國際資源之可能。中國大陸因台籍廠商生產市佔率益大，迄今無法建立自主筆記本電腦產業，即為策略明証 • 荷蘭以全球資源做為後盾，發展出 Shell、Philips、 ING、Unilever等世界級企業集團，長期揚名取利於全球市場

14. 以策略觀點精選次世代科技產業發展重點 • 科技產業過去五年結構產生重大變化，挑戰與機會兼出 • 製造型科技產業呈現微利現象，如筆記本電腦、主機板 • 破壞性科技帶動嶄新產業契機，如生物科技、無線通訊 • 知識型加值服務產業漸露生機，如RFID 之用於物流產業 • 智慧資本創新經營模式興起，智慧資源規劃觀念日趨重要 • 半導體及顯示面板已成台灣產業主要基石，國際競爭門檻 日益提升，設備及材料將成為繼續向上發展之關鍵 • 替代能源科技如太陽光電，基礎整合應用如智慧機器人， 發展時機及經濟外溢性恐將超越生物科技及數位內容

15. 發展服務業與製造業相互扶持之雙引擎科技 • 醫療器材產業藉助資通訊/生物偵測技術演進，未來可開發居家及行動型健康照護產品，除可提高國民健康照護程度，並降低健保醫療浪費外，且為電子通訊產業高值化覓尋絕佳出路 • 整合性通訊服務與應用，如數位家庭科技，更可兼顧設計生產與加值服務業雙重利益，適合精緻型社會之未來發展 • 過去四十年台商於製造業之表現勇冠國際，如今更是縱橫全球，台灣若發展供應鏈專業服務 (建廠規劃、倉儲物流服務、自動化工作流程設計) ，既能自給，亦可圖利 • 觀光為所有先進國家之共通性產業，其發展除應注重行銷創意及服務落實外，科技加值性亦成為晚近勝出之成功關鍵要素。如何整合觀光交通體系及科技產業資源，實為發展之關鍵

16. 發展台灣成為創新與創造力之島 ( InnoIsland ) • 創新與創造力為一切科技與產業發展之本，強化其基礎發展應以國家政策訂之，並從教育與科技發展機制著手改革 • 台灣若向國際社會宣示發展創新與創造力，必將吸引世界級企業及研究機構之注目，促成合作，有效平衡韓國大型企業及中國大陸廉價勞工在亞洲地區資源磁吸效應之優勢 • 與國際機構合作，設定具公信力指標，並積極規劃 2016 年台灣成為亞太地區 ”國民創新及創造力指數” 最高之國家， • 鼓勵獨立性思考與建立異質交流環境，實為創新與創造力之基礎所在，政府機構及研發單位均應制定績效指標，以強化跨領域整合、增加探索性研究與論述之相關資源投資

17. Strategic Thinking for Taiwan’s Next Generation Industry DevelopmentT.C TuGeneral Director Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center, ITRIAugust 3, 2006

18. Background Bottlenecks encountered in Taiwan’s industrial development Discord persists among the business community, government, academics and research institutes in regard to directions and strategies Take advices from the industrial think tanks Ten-year visions decide today’s strategies 8-2

19. Idea and Consensus of A Balanced Economy High 2015 Economic Growth Weak Sustainable Environment Low Strong Weak Strong Social Justice Q1: Do we want an equilateral rectangle or optimum asymmetry? Q2: Sustainable environment  Quality life?

20. Innovator of Soft Economy Value Initiator and Champion Pioneer of New Lift Style Hub of International Network What could we possibly be?

21. Ideal Positions for Today vs. 2015: International Value Chain (A). Development key technologies vs (B). Integrating global resources Taiwan Today Taiwan 2015 (A). Developing key technologies vs (B). integrating global resources Moving Toward Global resource integration Respondents to Positioning Displacement

22. Ideal Positioning for Today vs. 2015: Industry Driver (A). Knowledgeable services vs (B). Physical product Manufacturing Taiwan Today Taiwan 2015 (A). Knowledgeable services vs (B). Physical product Manufacturing Moving toward Soft Economy Respondents to Positioning Displacement

23. Ideal Positioning for Today vs. 2015: Innovation Trigger (A). Initiated by global market vs (B). Triggered by domestic Demand Today’s Taiwan Tomorrow’s Taiwan Taiwan Today Taiwan 2015 (A). Initiated by global market vs (B). Triggered by domestic Demand Moving toward Global Market Initiation Respondents to Positioning Displacement

24. Prerequisites to realize vision Moderate cross-Strait relationship Real-time responsive policy Technology R&D talents People with commanding foreign languages and with international perspective Good ICT infrastructure Characteristics required by future Industries Improved international competitiveness High value-added Developing unique technology Helping improving living qualify Escalating a nation’s development and status in its region Source: IEK survey result of Taiwan’s top 500 MFG firms, top 500 service firms and 500 social opinion leaders, in July 2006. Respondent rate was about 23%.

25. Eight Strategic Aspects for Taiwan’s Industrial Development Over The Next Ten Years Aspect 1 Optimizing and balancing industry’s portfolio Aspect 2 Restructuring Industrial value chain Aspect 8 Consolidating nation’s innovation system Aspect 3 Developing strategies for regional repositioning Industry Restructuring Aspect 7 Developing and utilizing high quality manpower Aspect 4 Developing applications enriched with local ingredients Fundamental elements enhancement Market expansion and creation Aspect 6 Instituting mechanisms for establishing high-quality industries and for competing for resources Aspect 5 Increasing Taiwan businesses’ overseas investment and their links to domestic industries

26. Constructing Clusters of Next Generation Industry from a Technological Integration Perspective Smart Materials Information Technology GeneticManipulation Integrated Microsystems Body Nano-technology Artificial Intelligent System Conception Biomechatronics Process Material applications Functions Biomedical materials Biomimetics Organism Sources: RAND, Taiwan 2015 Industrial Development and Technology Integration Project

27. Constructing Clusters of Next Generation Industry from a Perspective of Resource Effectiveness Renewing products and business concepts Modern process and production technologies in business applications Environment and energy Sustainable and eco-efficient solutions Health and well-being Human approach, quality and productivity in health care Services Quality and productivity New service businesses Security and safety Security at work and in systems Information security Work and leisure Productive, creative andmotivating Enjoyment and experiencesin leisure ICT Mobility、Broadband communications、Software-intensive products and systems、 Knowledge and content management、Test environments for newservices & applications... Biotechnology Systems biology Bioprocess technology Combining biosciences with ICT Nanotechnology Innovative nano-structured materials New structures for nano-electronics Nano-sensors and actuators Materials technology Interdependencies between properties, structures and production Surface phenomena Materials design Application Focus Technology Focus Business Competence & Development

28. Analysis and Implication of Balancing Portfolio of Industrial Technology Treasury Focus of governmental resources Gold Mine Sprinting opportunity for private enterprise Risk Low (++) High (-) Importance Important(++) Dangerous area Sideline or hedge Unimportant(-) Insignificance Niche market for private enterprise Pitfall Resource reallocation

29. Reviewing Opportunities for Development of Technology Industry with Globalization Thinking Given quick circulation of technology information and most production factors, global key technology industries such as information, semi-conductor, automobile and bio-technology ones are making vertical collaboration and horizontal integration according to their value chains. No single country may resist this trend. In response to threats from newly developing countries with advantages of low-cost production, Taiwanese businesses best strategy is to go localization, control resources, and block potential competitors from leveraging international resources. This strategy is best evidenced by Taiwanese laptop PC manufacturers in China who have stopped China from establishing the industry of its own. Taking advantages of global resources and international markets, the Netherlands has been envied to have world-class conglomerates like Shell, Philips, ING and Unilever, to name a few

30. Selecting Strategic Sectors for Next Generation Technology Industry • The technology industry has over the past five years witnessed great change in its structure. Such changes bring both challenges and opportunities: • Profit margins minimized in manufacturing, as shown in laptop PC and motherboard manufacturers. • Disruptive technologies, such as bio-technology and wireless communications, are creating new opportunities. • Knowledge-enabled service, such as the application of RFID on logistics industry, is emerging. • The emergence of innovative business models driven by intellectual capital has made intellectual resource planning even more important. Semiconductor and panel display industries have become the cornerstone of Taiwan’s industry. As entry barrier for international competition is getting higher, production equipment and materials will become the key to continuous development. The timing for development and economic spillover effects of alternative energy such as photovoltaics, and basic integrated applications such as robots, may be more important than those of biotechnology and digital contents.

31. Service and Manufacturing Industries As Twin Engines With infusion of ICT and biosensor technologies, the medical equipment industry can further develop home and mobile healthcare products. This will not only improve domestic healthcare quality but also lower waste of resources in national health insurance system. Furthermore, it will help ICT industry to move toward higher value-added. Integrated communication service and application, such as digital home technology, will serve Taiwan to benefit from designing, manufacturing and high value services, ideal for the development of a quality-pursuing society. Over the past four decades, Taiwan has been unrivalled in low cost and flexible manufacturing. If Taiwan is able to further develop professional services for supply chain such as turnkey planning, warehousing and logistics service, automatic production design and so on, it should enjoy both better self sufficiency and promising profits. Developed countries, without exception, place emphasis on tourism industry. In addition to creativity in marketing and service, how to utilize technology to add value has become a key successful factor nowadays. Integration of tourism and traffic system with technology industrial resources is crucial to future development.

32. Developing Taiwan as an InnoIsland Innovation and creativity are the root of technology and industry development. Government policy should be brought to strengthen technology industry’s basic development, which may start from education and technology development reforms. By pronouncing to the world its determination to stress innovation and creativity, Taiwan should be able to draw attention from world class enterprises and research institutes, thus fostering international cooperation to counter-balance the threat brought forth by Korea giant enterprises and China’s cheap labors. Taiwan can cooperate with international institutions to design a commonly recognized indicator, for example, the National Index for Innovation And Creativity, and Taiwan should aim to score the highest in Asia Pacific region in 2016. Encouraging independent thinking and creating heterogeneous exchange environment are indeed the soil for innovation and creativity. Government agencies and R&D institutes should set performance index, using it as a tool to enhance multi-domain integration, and increase investment on relevant resources for exploratory researches and studies.