Scope of e valuation

1. The effect of cohesion policy on the level and quality of employment in Hungary (TÁRKI- Kopint-Tárki- PPH consortium) Ex-post and midterm evaluation of EU developments in point of view of European Commission and Visegrad countries International evaluation conference Budapest, 6th May 2010 Peter Vakhal research associate, KOPINT-TÁRKI

2. Scope of evaluation • Which interventions increase more efficiently the level of employment? • The effect of structural interventions on • Job creation • Employment stability • Quality of created / safeguarded jobs • Duration of created / safeguarded jobs

3. The focus of evaluation • The operative programmes of economic competitiveness and human resource (between 2004 and 2008) The effect of interventions in case of • Enterprise subsidies • Subsidies on education

4. The methodology of evaluation • Questionnaire distribution among the subsidized enterprises • Focus groups interviews with educational institutions • Secondary research by descriptive statistics and econometrics (PPH) • Case studies on best practices

5. Focus of questionnaires • Number of created or safeguarded jobs by • Industrial sectors, • skill of employees, • age, gender, • special groups (handicap persons, long-term unemployment)

6. Focus groups • Current trainings • Success or non-success trainings • Distribution of trainings by interests • New, not satisfied demands • One group in a well developed and one from a developing region • Trainings for employees with higher and lower educational level

7. Secondary research (PPH) • Based on international literature • Separation of subsidies for employment and for other purposes • Dispersion of subsidies by descriptive statistics: which regions, areas, sectors and enterprises are subsidized? • Econometrics: analysis of the effect of employment subsidies by regressions

8. Hypothesises • 15 hypotheses • Based on international literature • Not finished yet!

9. 1. Hypothesis • The jobs would not be created without subsidies (thus, no deadweight-loss)

10. 2. Hypothesis • Subsidies paid for enterprises have pseudo-employment effect only. Enterprises created only formal jobs.

11. 3. Hypothesis • If subsidies aim SMEs, the effect of job creation is relatively higher than in case of transnational companies

12. 4. Hypothesis • The main beneficiaries of the subsidies are employees with lower educational level.

13. 5. Hypothesis • The effect of subsidies paid for the education of unemployed persons is lower than in case subsidies for safeguarding jobs.

14. Instead of conclusion: some preliminary results I. • Number of questionnaires: cca. 150 • Number of safeguarded jobs: 5-10 on average • Number of created jobs: 3-4 on average • Educational level of safeguarded jobs: almost the entire is secondary • Educational level of created jobs: mainly primary • Public opinion: the subsidies do not contribute to the creation of a knowledge-base economy

15. Instead of conclusion: some preliminary results of the secondary research (PPH) • The labour-intensive companies get higher subsidies in the programmes • Companies positioned in areas with worse labour market get higher subsidies in the programmes • The employment effect of the programs differs from zero

16. Thank you for your attention! Kopint-Tárki – PPH - TÁRKI Budapest, 6th May 2010.