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PERFECT STORM To Hit Job Markets!

The convergence of the Great Recession, an aging population, unprepared workforce, and the upskilling of jobs creates a perfect storm in the job market. Find out the implications and solutions to the impending labor crisis.

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PERFECT STORM To Hit Job Markets!

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  1. PERFECT STORM To Hit Job Markets!

  2. 2 Aging Population 1 Great Recession 4 Unprepared Workforce 3Upskilling of Jobs Storm Warnings 4 Converging Megatrends

  3. Megatrend 1: The Great Recession • Global economy in the throes of the • worst economic storm in a century • Jobs in jeopardy • Recovery slow and faltering • Governments in record debt

  4. Megatrend 2: Aging Population Predictable Demographics • Birth rate in decline since 1967 • Marriage & childbirth later, fewer children • Boomers retiring (1947-64) • Labour force participation rate declining • Immigration can’t offset natural decline

  5. Percent of Canadian Population 15-64 Years of Age

  6. Projected Worker Shortfall 2012 420,000 2016 950,000 2021 1,550,000 2026 2,080,000 2031 2,760,000 Rick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People [Figures projected nationally from Miner’s Ontario (38%) medium growth estimates] • Vast majority of 2031 work force has already been born • Immigration – 280,000 (family, credentials, competition) • Under-represented - poor, aboriginals, women, disabled

  7. Megatrend 3: Upskilling of Jobs Accelerating Knowledge Economy Rick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People

  8. Businesses Can’t Find Talent • Overall, 52% of businesses surveyed are having a difficult time recruiting for specific jobs. • 71% of high-tech companies • 68% of manufacturers • 49% of financial firms • 59% of professional services firms • 51% of construction, mining, oil and gas companies • 33% of state and local governments • 31% of federal government agencies • Society for Human Resources Managers (SHRM), Leading Indicators of National Employment Survey, November, 2011

  9. Frustrating Paradox • In a period of high unemployment, 600,000 jobs remain unfilled because manufacturers cannot find skilled workers. • 52% report lack of problem solving skills • 43% report lack of industry certification or vocational training • 40% report lack of basic employability (soft) skills • 36% report lack of technology or computer skills • Notably, inadequate math, reading, and writing skills weren't seen as being as serious as other concerns. • Manufacturing Institute Fall, October 2011

  10. Income Inequality Grows With the double shock we're experiencing now - globalization and computer-aided industrial productivity - income inequality is growing, as the rewards for being skilled grow and the opportunities for the unskilled diminish. Adam Davidson, Making It in America, the Atlantic, Jan/Feb 2012

  11. New & Changing Jobs There’s never been a better time to imagine career prospects! • Nano-mechanic • Old age wellness manager • Memory augmentation surgeon • Weather modification police • Waste data handler • Social networking worker • Personal brander/communications advisor • Stem cell bank manager • Adam Gordon, August 2009, Jobs of the Future, Science and Technology Enabled Employment 2020-2030

  12. Megatrend 4: Unprepared Workforce Education System and Employers The Talent Pipeline

  13. The Pipeline Leaks • National HS graduation rate 79% (Education Indicators 2011, Statistics Canada & Council of Ministers of Education Canada) • 60% of HS grads (47%) register immediately for post-secondary programs (King, 2009, Who Doesn’t Go To Post-Secondary Education?) • 25% of post-secondary students dropout by the end of the first year. A similar percent change programs or majors (Miner, 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People)

  14. End of the Pipeline • Of 100 students in the educational pipeline in grade 9 each year … • 29 will graduate on schedule with a post-secondary degree, diploma or certificate • 50% will not be in jobs directly related to their majors 2 years after graduation (Statistics Canada and Human Resources & Skills Development Canada, School Leavers Survey) • Many carry heavy student loan debt with unclear employment prospects

  15. More Demanding Labour Market (Upskilling) “Over the past third of a century all net job growth has been generated by positions requiring some post-secondary education.” Pathways to Prosperity, February 2011, Harvard Graduate School of Education “Only 14% of undergrads enroll in STEM subjects. Only 2 in 5 will graduate with a STEM degree or certification within 6 years. We must do better.” President Obama, June 2011

  16. Potential Labour Crisis “Canada is already facing a labour crunch as baby boomers retire. It could turn into a labour crisis if the education system is not fixed.” Dr. Paul Cappon Canadian Council on Learning

  17. Bottom Line Requirement • Implement in all education and training sites the best available: • experiential career learning programs for all primary, middle, secondary and post-secondary students • career exploration and planning system • electronic portfolio system (all levels plus adults) • course planning system (ILP for every student) • online networking system to connect students with informed dreams to employers seeking talent

  18. The Perfect Talent Storm makes a harmonized, whole-community commitment to career and workforce development an economic imperative.

  19. Economic Imperative? Businesses drive economic prosperity Good employees power successful businesses 30% of employees are fully engaged (productivity) 25% of students are fully engaged (achievement) The majority graduate without clear career goals (Harvard) Students need to be ready to step into success when they graduate. Companies need to identify future talent earlier (ccInspire).

  20. What is the purpose of K-12 education? • To qualify for university entrance? • To qualify for employment? • To prepare for success in life?

  21. Life typically now involves more working hours than anything but sleep for 40 years or more. (Better be emotionally engaged and enjoy it) Image from The Real Game for middle school students

  22. Sports Analogy We discover hockey potential at a very young age Most others must find their way through the educational maze then see if anyone wants them.

  23. Career and Workforce Development Paradigm Shift Learning Skills Life Imagination Introductions Choosing Occupation Work Information Lists

  24. Helping students imagine the future they want to create “Your imagination is a preview of life’s coming attractions.” Albert Einstein “I wish The Real Game was MANDATORY for all students. The information and life experience it provides are more valuable than some required coursework. Giving our students the tools they need to be successful in “the real world” should be our first priority.” Tanya McKay, First Northern Bank, Woodland, CA, April 2011

  25. Case Study • 9th grade NC student - bright, but hated school • Couldn’t wait for school day to end to drop • another transmission • Exposed to F4K, Career Cruising, Real Game • Passion and talents for things mechanical • becomes evident • Receives invitation from companies • John Deere relationship evolves (mentorship, • job shadowing, summer jobs)

  26. Case Study • 9th grade NC student - bright, but hated school • Couldn’t wait for school day to end to drop • another transmission • Exposed to F4K, Career Cruising, Real Game • Passion and talents for things mechanical • becomes evident • Receives invitation from companies • John Deere relationship evolves (mentorship, • job shadowing, summer jobs) • Outcome • John Deere paid tuition for 2-year Community College • Small Engine Repair course then hired at $50K, loan free.

  27. Expected Results To be measured • More informed, purposeful, engaged, and higher • achieving students - happier teachers and • parents • Reduced truancy and bullying • Higher productivity for employers with reduced • recruiting and retention costs • Reduced costs for support programs (alternative • education, drug and substance abuse, social • assistance, welfare, corrections) • More engaged, self-reliant, resilient citizens • Pride of accomplishment shared by community

  28. Consequences of staying the course • Ongoing unacceptable levels of student • underachievement and disengagement • Continued faltering in school to work transitions • Continued out-migration of talent • Increasing recruitment challenges for employers • More storm victims in future job markets • Reduced community prosperity • Government Budget Impact: Revenues • (personal income, business and consumption • taxes, G/HST), education, social assistance, • corrections, health

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