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Outlook for Wool

Outlook for Wool. Jammie Penm Chief Commodity Analyst ABARE. Outline. World demand and supply trends Australian sheep flock and wool production Implications and price projections. World demand and supply trends. World wool consumption has declined

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Outlook for Wool

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  1. Outlook for Wool Jammie Penm Chief Commodity Analyst ABARE

  2. Outline World demand and supply trends Australian sheep flock and wool production Implications and price projections

  3. World demand and supply trends World wool consumption has declined But sheep numbers and wool production also declined More sheep meat production led to lower supplies of fine wool

  4. World fibre consumption all fibres wool Wool (right axis) All fibres (left axis) Mt Mt clean equivalent Source: International Wool Textile Organisation

  5. Sheep numbers, by country million head Source: International Wool Textile Organisation

  6. Wool production, by country production on a seasonal basis (e.g. 2008 = 2007-08) kt clean equivalent Source: International Wool Textile Organisation

  7. World wool production, by IWTO grade production on a seasonal basis (e.g. 2008 = 2007-08) kt clean equivalent 24.6 – 32.5µm > 32.5µm ≤ 24.5µm Source: International Wool Textile Organisation

  8. Australian sheep industry Australian lamb slaughters are up Wool producers focus more on fine wool production Developments in China important to Australian wool industry

  9. Wool production & lamb slaughterings Australia lamb slaughterings greasy wool production index 1990-91=100 Source: ABARE

  10. Micron profile of Australian wool clip 24.6+µm 22.6-24.5µm 19.6-22.5µm kt greasy weight 0.0-19.5µm 2008-09 Source: Australian Wool Testing Authority

  11. Australian wool export destinations 2008/09 439 kt greasy equivalent* *includes greasy, semi-processed and wool on skins Source: ABARE

  12. A few observations China’s wool demand is projected to rise as growth in demand for textiles & clothing continues Competition from other low cost countries will increase over time China needs to produce high-quality woollen textiles & clothing to compete To achieve that China will have to import more fine wool

  13. Chinese exports of woollen textiles and clothing kt Source: International Wool Textile Organisation

  14. Chinese wool production coarse 40.1 μm semi-fine 25.1- 40 μm fine ≤25 μm kt 2008 Source: China Statistical Yearbook

  15. Implications for the future Australia will be a major world supplier of fine wool Australian sheep flock will rebuild only gradually Fine wool prices to be supported by limited supply

  16. Summary of ABARE’s wool outlook for 2010-11 EMI to average 920 c/kg clean Export volume to fall 4% to 385 kt greasy equivalent Export value: $2.06 billion Sheep flock to increase gradually from 2011-12

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