Global Environment Post-bipolarity, one superpower emerged: The USA

1. Global Environment • Post-bipolarity, one superpower emerged: The USA • No balance in system anymore • Redefining NATO • Emerging supranational entity of the EU • A new “enemy” – false notion of “clash of civilisations” • Role of Non-State actors increasingly important.

2. Post-9/11 these trends further intensified Terrorism became one of two central points of Global politics The other central point was AC & D, with a focus on nuclear proliferation – but a shift in the nuance Role of NSAs gained more prominence asymmetric warfare

3. Targeting of Muslim states – GMEI & BMEI – and Islam in guise of “freedom of speech” Undermining of UN collective security system with creation of Coalitions of the Willing – US and its Core States framework

4. US NSSP in which preemption is the key at Political, Military and Economic Levels So now two contrary pulls on global system: one is the US-centric pull and the other is the economic interdependence of global economy PLUS emerging principles like Right to Humanitarian Intervention & the ICC

5. GENESIS OF TERRORISM • Separating pathological violence from terrorism which has a political dimension • Difficult to define terrorism but increasingly a consensus has evolved whereby targeting of civilians regardless of political aspects involved is regarded as terrorism

6. One basic definition of terrorism: • “terrorism involves the use of violence or the threat of violence by the perpetrators against an instrumental target in order to communicate to a primary target a threat of future violence”. • 3 dimensions • the act or threat of violence; the emotional reaction; the social effects.

7. 3 actors involved: the perpetrator of the violence – the victim and the target. But two other issues remain: One: principle of self determination as inscribed in UN Charter Two: state terrorism

8. 3 types of terrorism can be identified: One: International terrorism Two: local, sub national armed groups using violence and terror tactics Three: State terrorism

9. Causes of Terrorism Terrorism is to a large extent a symptom of deep seated political and economic problems, unresolved conflicts Framing the issue in religious terms at the global level has also indirectly led to a rise in extremist mindset Globalisation itself has created violent reactions

10. Economic globalisaton Cultural globalisation Political globalisation And just as mainstream international system has become more globalised so has terrorism Notion of “netwar” used by Bruce Hoffman

11. Combating Terrorism in Pakistan: Nature of the threat and strategic planning at national level

12. Operational environment: The security situation in Pakistan has and continues to be a major source of concern. Pakistan has suffered on all fronts, politically, socially, economically. The GWOT has had tremendous economic costs - Loss of markets and the increase in price of exports due to rising costs of insurance etc. - Travel advisories have undermined FDI and tourism

13. The overall distrust in the US of Muslims; most US firms and businesses treated Pakistanis with distrust if not with contempt. • - Other costs included internally the increasing targeted killings of the military & security forces; continuing socio-economic damage through the continuing presence of Afghan refugees; • - Resurgence of the weapons and drug fallout

14. One can identify two main strands of terrorism that have their origins in Pakistan, but which also have linkages externally.

15. a) sub-nationalists Confined largely to Balochistan The present violence began in 2003-2004 and the main organisations are the BLA and the BSO – although now there is also the BRA (Baloch Republican Army). Targeting has focused on vital installations, LEAs (law enforcement agencies) and military installations and personnel, Non-Balochis and foreigners employed in Gwadar.

16. - Primarily, these terrorists use IEDs, targeted kidnappings and rockets. The funding for these groups comes primarily from abroad which is why the GoP feels they have evidence to connect India to some of the acts of terror. Also, with the US attempting to destabilise Iranian Balochistan covertly, some funding may be coming in from US sources also.

17. b) Religious extremists of two types Sectarian – The targets were in the main sectarian leaders as well as known professionals/bureaucrats and police officers belonging to the rival sectarian groups. Sectarian terrorism was less sensitive to collateral damage in terms of indiscriminate killing of the rival sect. Primarily, these terrorists used IEDs, hit and run tactics as well as suicide bombings. Weapons and explosives tended to and still come from Afghanistan and the tribal areas.

18. Political – which started primarily around 2002, in the wake of the fall of the Taliban and was a new dimension of religious terrorism in Pakistan. Amongst this group of terrorists are elements of ex JCOs and a terrorist nexus between Al-Qaeda/Taliban/Lashkar-i-Jhangvi/Dissident “Jehadi” elements/Afghan Trained Boys (1979 onwards)/Returnees from Afghan Prisons/Afghan Refugees/Guantanamo Bay Returnees. Main weapon is the suicide bomber.

19. Counter Terror Strategy Holistic approach needed – with different strands to deal with differing dimensions of the problem. Military action and military courts only deal with the immediate problem There is also the long term issue of altering mindsets Also winning over people – 3 diff categories

21. Foundations for a counter terrorism policy will have to have a strategy premised on: a) Disengagement from the US War on Terror as that will deprive the militants of their distorted narrative of jehad. This will immediately create a positive environment for Pakistan to deal with its problem of militancy and terrorism.

22. b) Isolating the hard core terrorists from their supporters and the fence sitters. For Balochistan, laying down of arms amnesty offer along with economic development and political empowerment are needed For Karachi and its mafia terrorism, where elements of TTP may also be enmeshed, deweaponisation & depoliticisation of police needed. The military cannot be used to fight mafia terrorism as it is not geared for fighting street crime.

23. c) Madrassahs Madrassah reform – including public-private partnership idea Registration Hate speech/literature issue Illegal constructions – law must apply equally to all

24. d) Foreign funding From Madrassahs to NGOs – transparency and accountability CASE OF FATA Mainstreaming Economic development