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SOME VIEWS ON THE LINKS BETWEEN GEWEX AND (US) CLIVAR

SOME VIEWS ON THE LINKS BETWEEN GEWEX AND (US) CLIVAR. US CLIVAR SUMMIT August 16, 2005. Rick Lawford Keystone, Colorado. THE GLOBAL ENERGY AND WATER CYCLE EXPERIMENT (GEWEX) INVOLVES “THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF PLANETARY EARTH SCIENCE, OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS TO THE

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SOME VIEWS ON THE LINKS BETWEEN GEWEX AND (US) CLIVAR

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  1. SOME VIEWS ON THE LINKS BETWEEN GEWEX AND (US) CLIVAR US CLIVAR SUMMIT August 16, 2005 Rick Lawford Keystone, Colorado

  2. THE GLOBAL ENERGY AND WATER CYCLE EXPERIMENT (GEWEX) INVOLVES “THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF PLANETARY EARTH SCIENCE, OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS TO THE PROBLEMS OF CLIMATE AND WATER RESOURCES” • THE PROGRAM ENTAILS: • - GLOBAL DATA SETS DERIVED FROM SATELLITE DATA, IN SITU • DATA AND DATA ASSIMILATION CAPABILITIES, • - MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND PREDICTABILITY STUDIES • FIELD AND PROCESS STUDIES • APPLICATIONS

  3. GEWEX Phase II Objectives (2003-2012): • Produce consistent research quality data sets complete with error descriptions of the Earth's energy budget and water cycle and their variability and trends on inter-annual to decadal time scales, and for use in climate system analysis and model development and validation • 2) Enhance the understanding of how energy and water cycle processes • function and quantify their contribution to climate feedbacks • 3) Determine the geographical and seasonal characteristics of the predictability • of key water and energy cycle variables over land areas and through collaborations with the wider WCRP community determine the predictabilityof energy and water cycles on a global basis. • 4) Develop better seasonal predictions of water and energy cycle variability • through improved parameterisations encapsulating hydro-meteorological • processes and feedbacks for atmospheric circulation models • 5) Undertake joint activities with operational hydro-meteorological services and • hydrological research programmes to demonstrate the value of new GEWEX • prediction capabilities, data sets and tools for assessing the consequences • of climate predictions and global change.

  4. WHO FUNDS GEWEX? USA:GERMANY: BALTEX, GPCC. GRDC GAPP, GPCP, ISCCP, JAPAN:CEOP, GAME FOLLOWON SRB, GACP, GVaP? AUSTRALIA: MDB FRANCE, EU:AMMA JOINT: US/JAPAN: GLASS GEF/ ARGENTINA:LPB US/AUSTRALIA: GCSS CANADA: MAGS US/THE NETHERLANDS: GABLS * - some US research dollars US/ BRAZIL: LBA ONE CLIVAR/ GEWEX DIFFERENCE: ALTHOUGH A LARGE NUMBER OF GEWEX PROJECTS TAKE PLACE IN THE USA OR WITH USA FUNDING, THE PROGRAM HAS NEVER HAD A US PROGRAM COORDINATED THROUGH A PANEL AND PROJECT OFFICE. (HOWEVER, BETWEEN 1995 AND 2000 NOAA DID FUND A GCIP PROJECT OFFICE AND NRC/NAS HAD A US GEWEX REVIEW PANEL.) PROBABLY, GEWEX WOULD BE LARGER AND MORE VIBRANT IF IT HAD A US GEWEX PROJECT OFFICE AND A US PROGRAM STRUCTURE.

  5. CEOP IAEA HYDROMETEOROLOGY PANEL CSEs Data Management Water and Energy Budget Studies Stable Water Isotope Intercomparison Group Worldwide Integrated Study of Extremes Transferability Water Resource Applications Project

  6. ISLSCP sponsors large-scale field experiments to develop and test satellite algorithms and associated climate and ecosystem models. ISLSCP promotes the development of global, interdisciplinary data collections, including satellite-generated data series to investigate the impact of land surface change on climate. ISLSCP initiated the Global Soil Wetness Project to produce large-scale data sets of soil moisture, temperature, runoff, and surface fluxes. GEWEX HYDROMETEOROLOGY PANEL ACTIVITIES WATER AND ENERGY BUDGETS ARE BEING CLOSED (AND THE ERRORS ESTIMATED) FOR VARIOUS CSEs. MC P E N W A PROJECT HAS BEEN LAUNCHED TO LOOK AT PROCESSES THAT CONTROL EXTREME EVENTS A 10-YEAR (1986-1995) DATA SET OF SATELLITE DERIVED LAND SURFACE DATA WAS COMPLETED AND THE DATA SETS ARE BEING EVALUATED BEFORE FULL PUBLIC RELEASE

  7. GEWEX/ CLIVAR COLLABORATIONIN THE GAPP CSE CPPA US CLIVAR Pan-America (PACS) GEWEX Americas Prediction Project Science Advisory Groups Science and Implementation Plans Funding Funding Agency Implementation -ATM -OCE CPPA -Hydro -GEWEC GEWEX GREATLY VALUES THE CONTRIBUTIONS THAT CPPA AND NASA NEWS EFFORTS MAKE TO THE GAPP CSE. WILL THERE BE A FOLLOW-ON?

  8. Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models Mesoscale Models E P Hydrologic/Routing Models Qs D Ss Qg D Sg Ig SVATs WATER RESOURCES APPLICATION PROJECT http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/projects/ghp/Wrap_web/ • Working group of GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel (GHP) • Representatives from all CSE/CSAs, ISLSCP, HELP, WWAP, IAHS, WMO • Mandate: • Collaborate with water resources agencies to develop better hydrometeorological predictions using GEWEX models and data • A paper summarizing past accomplishments and future opportunities is in progress. Water Resources Applications cf. Sorooshian

  9. PREDICTED OBSERVED Climate Model vs Observed Precipitation Global Intensification of the hydrological cycle? Models indicate trend -- observations don’t confirm Errors don’t allow proof

  10. GEWEX RADIATION PANEL DATA SETS DERIVED FROM LONG-TERM SATELLITE RECORDS ARE BEING USED IN CLIMATE STUDIES (E.G. GEWEX/ IGWCO/UNESCO WORKSHOP ON TRENDS IN WATER CYCLE VARIABLES) SATELLITE DATA (BUT CARE IS ADVISED WHEN USING DATA SETS WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN DEVELOPED FOR TREND ANALYSIS) GRP HAS BEEN LEADING ASSESSMENTS OF RADIATIVE FLUXES AND OTHER SATELLITE PRODUCTS FOR CLIMATE TREND ANALYSIS. GEWEX IS HELPING TO BUILD THE GLOBAL CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM BY PROVIDING THE BASELINE SURFACE RADIATION NETWORK. Now Available: Implementation Plan for theGlobal Observing Systems for Climate GCOS welcomes the WCRP/GEWEXBaseline Surface Radiation Network Also available:Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate (April 2003):

  11. GRP HAS DEVELOPED GLOBAL SCALE PERSPECTIVES AND DATA SETS FROM OPERATIONAL SATELLITES FOR AEROSOLS AEROSOLS SATELLITE DATA CLOUDS CLOUDS WATER VAPOR WATER VAPOR PRECIPITATION PRECIPITATION While global trends do not appear to exist for precipitation GPCP products indicate that regional trends do occur.

  12. GEWEX MODELING AND PREDICTION PANEL KAIN-FRITSCH (15 km) CSRM (2 km) GCSS STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THE EFFECTS OF MODEL RESOLUTION ON SIMULATED CLOUD FIELDS. GLASS (GSWP2) HAS PRODUCED TEN-YEAR SIMULATIONS (1986- 1995) OF SOIL WETNESS AND OTHER WATER CYCLE VARIABLES BASED ON A NUMBER OF MODELS. GABLS ADDRESSES ISSUES RELATED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER

  13. Multi-Model Analysis A major product of GSWP2 is a multi-model land surface analysis for the ISLSCP II period. There is a climatological annual cycle data set, and a larger data set for the entire series. Compiling the results of multiple LSSs to produce a single analysis provides a model-independent result. Of particular value : uncertainty estimates can be put on all of the fields, based on the inter-model spread. Example of the multi-model mean and spread in evapotranspiration over North America from GSWP1. Over some regions the models are in good agreement, but in others the spread among models exceeds the mean of the models (color scale is the same for both plots).

  14. Future Plans An Element of WCRP initiated by GEWEX • Part-II(2007-2010) • Implement the CEOP-II Enhanced Observation • Improve the CEOP Data Integration Systems • Water and Energy Simulation and Prediction Extension • Transferability and Down-scaling • Extreme Events • Cold Region • Semi-arid Region • Monsoon Studies Extension • Closely related with the pan WCRP Monsoon Study • Intra-seasonal Variation • Aerosol-Monsoon interaction

  15. “End-to-End” Prediction is a Joint CLIVAR/ GEWEX Challenge From climate prediction To Weather predic: the actual event To impact on water resources El Nino Prediction Wetter than average winter Hurricane Nora Early Releases Water Saved Decisions Source: S. Sorooshian GEWEX-SSG

  16. AREAS OF CLIVAR/ GEWEX COLLABORATION • SOME COMMON AREAS OF INTEREST: • DIURNAL CYCLE • SURFACE FLUXES (E.G.SEAFLUX) • PRECIPITATION PROCESSES • SEASONAL PREDICTIONS • PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH • LAND STATES (E.G. GLACE) • JOINT PROJECTS; • NAME (AND CPPA) • LPB • AMMA • GAME FOLLOWON? • PRIORITIES FROM THE PAN-WCRP MONSOON WORKSHOP: • (HELD IN JUNE 2005 AT UCI): • DIURNAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION • MODELING OF SURFACE FLUXES, PBL AND CLOUDS • INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION • ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION AND TRANSPORT • PROCESS STUDIES OF THE MARITIME CONTINENT AND THE INDIAN OCEAN • SENSITIVITY OF MODELS WHEN SIMULATING MULTISCALE INTERACTIONS • IN MONSOON SYSTEMS.

  17. GEWEX Contributes Towards a Global Observing System of Systems GEO IS DEVELOPING A PLAN FOR AN INTEGRATED GLOBAL EARTH OBSERVING SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS (GEOSS) IGOS-P IS DEVELOPING THE STRATEGY FOR INTEGRATING OBSERVATIONAL SYSTEMS GEWEX, ESSP, ETC ARE CARRYING OUT THE RESEARCH NEEDED TO DEVELOP A PREDICTION AND INFORMATION SYSTEM

  18. GEWEX ROLE IN COORDINATING SATELLITE ACTIVITIES • GILLES SOMMERIA (JPS OF WCRP) HAS PROVIDED INPUT TO THE • WMO HIGH LEVEL SATELLITE COMMITTEE AND GEOSS. • 2. IGPO HAS LED THE INTEGRATED GLOBAL WATER CYCLE OBSERVATIONS • (IGWCO) SINCE ITS INCEPTION (THE PLAN IS TO TRANSITION • FROM WCRP/GEWEX TO WMO IN APRIL 2006) • 3. GEWES HAS PROVIDED • LEADERSHIP FOR THE WATER • RESOURCES SOCIETAL BENEFIT • AREA TEAM LEADER (NOW BEING • COORDINATED THROUGH IGWCO) • 4. GEWEX (AND IGWCO) ON BEHALF • OF WCRP ARE HELPING TO • IMPLEMENT ELEMENTS OF THE • GCOS IMPLEMENTATION PLAN.

  19. SOME THINGS CLIVAR COULD DO FOR GEWEX • GEWEX DOES NOT HAVE A COUPLED GLOBAL MODEL FOR • TESTING THE SENSITIVITY OF GCMS TO ITS NEW PARAMETERIZATIONS. • COULD US CLIVAR PROVIDE THIS PLATFORM? • 2. CLIVAR COULD HELP ADDRESS THE QUESTION OF A TRUE GLOBAL • WATER AND ENERGY BUDGET BY PROVIDING THE WATER AND • ENERGY FLUXES AND STORES OVER OCEANS. • 3. GEWEX INTERESTS IN WATER RESOURCE APPLICATIONS AND • ITS STUDIES OF EXTREMES WOULD BENEFIT FROM ACCESS TO • EXPERIMENTAL CLIMATE PREDICTIONS AND CLIVAR COLLABORATION. • 4. CLIVAR COULD PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON THE WEAKNESSES AND • LIMITATIONS OF GEWEX DATA SETS.

  20. SOME THINGS GEWEX COULD DO FOR US CLIVAR • WITH ITS HYDROLOGICAL EXPERTISE, GEWEX COULD • PROVIDE AN APPLICATIONS RESEARCH ARM FOR CLIVAR • PRODUCTS IN THE WATER RESOURCES SECTOR. • 2. THROUGH ITS LINKS WITH SPACE PROGRAMS GEWEX COULD • PROVIDE A VOICE FOR CLIVAR REMOTE SENSING NEEDS • RELATED TO THE WATER CYCLE. IT CAN ALSO PROVIDE • LINKAGES TO iLEAPS AND GWSP. • 3. THROUGH A JOINT INITIATIVE, CLIVAR AND GEWEX (WITH • THORPEX COLLABORATION) COULD ADDRESS THE • WEATHER IN CLIMATE ISSUE. • 4. THE GEWEX PLATFORM (E.G. THE GAPP CORE PROJECT) FOR • TRANSFERING RESEARCH RESULTS (IMPROVED • PARAMETERIZATIONS) TO OPERATIONS COULD SERVE AS A • MECHANISM FOR CLIVAR PROCESS PARAMETERIZATIONS.

  21. OTHER CHALLENGES THE INCLUSION OF COMPLEX TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN PROCESSES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS THE PREDICTION OF PRECIPITATION ON ALL TIME SCALES. THE TECHNIQUES AND LIMITATIONS OF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION TECHNIQUES IN CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC MODELING. QUANTIFICATION OF THE FLUXES AND STORES IN WATER AND ENERGY BUDGETS FOR THE GLOBE.

  22. PRECIPITATION CHALLENGES PRECIPITATION IS NEITHER PREDICTED NOR OBSERVED AT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH RESOLUTION TO MEET THE NEEDS OF THE HYDROLOGIC AND WATER RESOURCES COMMUNITIES. EXTREMES IN PRECIPITATION EVENTS (OR THE ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS) NEED TO BE UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF THEIR CAUSES, TERMINATION AND IMPACTS. THE ROLE OF AEROSOLS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. Smoky (Andreae et al., 2004) Pristine

  23. SOME POTENTIAL AREAS FOR COLLABORATION • GLOBAL WATER AND ENERGY BUDGETS (NEED A TRULY GLOBAL • BALANCE) • MONSOONS • REGIONAL MODELING FOR DOWNSCALING • DEVELOPMENT OF A JOINT STRATEGY FOR APPLICATIONS • PREDICTION OF PRECIPITATION AT CLIMATE TIME SCALES • REPRESENTATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE IN GLOBAL MODELS • DEVELOPMENT OF HARMONIZED DATA POLICIES • SOURCES OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. CAUTION: WE CAN’T DO IT ALL AT ONCE – WE NEED TO AGREE ON PRIORITIES. POSSIBLE ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION: 1. WOULD A US GEWEX OFFICE/ COORDINATOR FACILITATE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN US CLIVAR AND GEWEX (AND COULD WE CONVINCE AGENCIES THAT THE INVESTMENT IS WORTH IT?) 2. WHAT IS THE BEST WAY TO PROMOTE COLLABORATION? 3. IN ADDITION TO CONTRIBUTIONS TO GEWEX, WHAT CONTRIBUTIONS CAN US CLIVAR MAKE TO CEOP AND IGWCO?

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