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OOPC to WOAP-II

OOPC to WOAP-II. D. E. Harrison Ocean Observations Panel for Climate (WCRP, GOOS, GCOS). Ocean Observations Panel for Climate - Terms of Reference.

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OOPC to WOAP-II

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  1. OOPC to WOAP-II D. E. Harrison Ocean Observations Panel for Climate (WCRP, GOOS, GCOS)

  2. Ocean Observations Panel for Climate - Terms of Reference • Develop recommendations for a sustained global ocean observing system, in support of WCRP, GOOS and GCOS climate objectives, including phased implementation. • Help develop a process for ongoing evaluation and evolution of system and recommendations. • Support global ocean observing activities by involved parties, via liaison and advocacy for agreed observing plans

  3. Outline • Status of global ocean OS • Some ocean sampling issues/results • Documents/Reviews • Some continuing big issues • Some new activities/issues • Some relevant workshops/meetings since WOAP-I • Some workshops/meetings in prospect • WOAP issues to be taken up

  4. Status of Ocean O.S. - 1 • Agreed need (5/06) for enhanced Observing Program Support (OPS) • Argo ~2500/3000. Most national efforts to be re- competed. O2 & other sensors? • Surface Drifters ~1250. ‘hourly’ SST coming. Improve global distribution. • Tide gauge progress. Tsunami warning • OceanSites progress, but most transport efforts to be re-competed

  5. GTS Surface Data Buoys FEB 2004 FEB 2005 JUL 2006 Gold – SST Blue – SST & SLP Dot - mooring

  6. GTS Temperature Profiles: FEB 2004 FEB 2005 JUL 2006

  7. Status of Ocean O.S. - 2 • Tropical Mooring expansion in Atlantic and Indian • Improving attitudes toward Real Time data sharing & cruise info sharing • Ocean Carbon progress, pCO2 & sections, but plans needs revision • Continuing VOS issues • Repeat line Ship of Opportunity issues • Uncertainty about satellite continuity

  8. Multi-year Phased Implementation Plan (International) (representative milestones) 2001 2002 2010 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 170 Real-time Stations, Initial GCOS Subset 51 56 67 67 69 126 148 79 91 106 Tide Gauge Stations 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250 1250 975 Number of buoys 807 671 779 787 Surface Drifting Buoys 119 97 104 115 Number of moorings 83 86 91 77 77 79 79 Tropical Moored Buoys 200 200 200 200 Number of ships recruited 180 0 0 150 108 112 VOS Clim Ships 60 51 51 51 High resolution & frequently repeated lines occupied 23 24 49 39 40 Ships of Opportunity 26 26 27 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 20 31 544 2300 Number of floats 1572 Argo Floats 923 89 Observatories, flux, and ocean transport stations 15 29 35 37 78 49 54 60 41 42 Reference Stations 31 Repeat Sections Completed, One inventory per 10 years 28 0 0 1 4 20 23 15 17 Ocean Carbon Network 9 Initial Ocean Observing System Milestones JCOMM-I JCOMM-II 99 88 77 66 60 48 55 System % Complete Total System 40 45 30 34 If funded asrequested 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

  9. Funding History $ Million Original target: $141 M by 2010 130 System % complete [NOAA Contribution] 120 110 90 100 80 90 70 80 Maximum executable ramp = $17 M/yr 60 70 50 60 40 50 30 40 20 30 10 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year

  10. Some Ocean Sampling Issues • Complex patterns of interannual to decadal subsurface variability • How representative is satellite era? • MBT/XBT/Argo transition effects in historical data set • Sparseness, particularly of So. Hem. and Indian historical obs, limits ‘World Ocean’ inferences and reconstructions • Importance of sub-750m (and sub-Argo depth) ocean heat content?

  11. 20 year T trends at 100m 1955-1974 1960-1979 95% of all boxes change sign at least once over the 45-year period Harrison & Carson 2006 (JPO to appear) 1965-1984 1970-1989 1975-1994 1980-1999

  12. Hansen, Turrell and Osterhus (2001), updated by Hansen et al. (2004) Faroe-Bank Channel overflow Science paper was written No trend – but the time series is only one decade

  13. Documents/Reviews • GCOS IP Supplement on Satellite Reqs. • GCOS revised national ‘reporting requirements’ on sustained observations for UNFCCC • GCOS IP in GEO Work Plan • GODAE Summer School book on ODA • CEOS response to GCOS IP • IGOS-P Ocean Theme review/revision • PIRATA review • Various program and regional plans

  14. GODAE Summer School Book • Ocean Weather Forecasting An Integrated View of OceanographyChassignet, Eric P.; Verron, Jacques (Eds.) Springer. 2006, XII, 578 p., Hardcover. USD189. ISBN: 1-4020-3981-6

  15. Some Continuing Big Issues • Limited progress in national actions to establish & support sustained ocean observing institutions/activities • Research funds still essential • System support is limited and fragile • Limited financial support for JCOMM Secretariat& new activities • What follows GODAE? In WGNE? • Limited progress agreeing ‘climate quality’ QC procedures

  16. New Programmatic Items • OOPC indices website: http://ioc3.unesco.org/oopc/state_of_the_ocean/ • Ocean real time SST metadata group formed • AOPC/OOPC SST/Sea Ice group-new leaders • Sea Ice comparison group formed • Tsunameter group to be proposed to JCOMM • Increased action on non-physical variables in OOPC and JCOMM

  17. Integrating Climate & Tsunami Buoy Ship Support Chilean Tsunami Buoy being deployed during a U.S. Climate mission Sites where Tsunami and Climate plans overlap -- potential for coordination Sites where Climate missions already deploy tsunami buoys routinely

  18. Workshops/Mtgs since WOAP-1 • GHRSST (several) • JCOMM-II Sep 05 • Marine Data Nov 05 • GODAE IGST Nov 05 • Ocean Carbon/Hydro repeat survey Nov 05 • Argo Science Mar 06 • SST real time metadata Mar 06 • OOPC May 06 • Interdisciplinary Sea Level Workshop Jun 06 • Ocean Carbon/.Hydro Atlantic Jun 06 • 50 years of “Line P” Jul 06

  19. Workshops/Meetings Ahead • Ocean Reanalysis Metrics Aug 06 • Sea Ice Sep 06 • GODAE East Asia workshop in Oct 06 • SCOR ocean program coordination meeting #2 in Dec 06 • Non-physical variable sensor workshop being planned for 07 • OceanObs2008 conference being contemplated

  20. Issues for WOAP, #1 • Research community support/pressure to nations to set up sustained ocean observing activities/institutions and budgets? • In interim, have to maintain via research programs, including CLIVAR. • Must include advocacy for system management infrastructure; “OPS center” (recall OPS=Observing Program Support) • Continue to support real time data sharing • Evaluation/Evolution of present plans

  21. Issues for WOAP, #2 • Advocacy for improvement of historical ocean data base and analyses, with emphasis on QC, reconstruction & gridding techniques and uncertainty estimates as well as data archeology. • Workshop on uncertainty estimation in reconstructed fields? (not just ocean?) Decadal variability consequences? • Continue to foster development and use of indicators/indices. Going slowly at present. • When should ocean forecasting and ocean reanalysis become coupled ocean-atmos? • WCRP and non-physical variable recommendations?

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