Alan F. Hamlet JISAO

3. B1 reflects significant greenhouse gas mitigation by the mid 21st century (low emissions scenario). A1B reflects significant greenhouse gas mitigation by the end of the 21st Century (medium emissions scenario). Error bars are 5th percentile and 95th percentile.B1 reflects significant greenhouse gas mitigation by the mid 21st century (low emissions scenario). A1B reflects significant greenhouse gas mitigation by the end of the 21st Century (medium emissions scenario). Error bars are 5th percentile and 95th percentile.

14. 2040s Changes in Flood RiskSkagit at Gorge The central tendency of the estimated future 100 year flood (Q100) is about 20% higher than the historical number for the A1B emissions scenario. In this case the central tendency of the ensemble is roughly equal to the composite delta analysis (using the average of all the climate model changes in temperature and precipitation). In some other instances these analyses are substantially different. The uncertainty estimate deriving from the 10-member Hybrid Delta ensemble supports the conclusion that Q100 will increase (e.g. ~98% confidence), but that higher or lower flood risk is possible. These uncertainties are strongly related to decadal precipitation variability in each model simulation. So these uncertainties strongly reflect the differences from decade-to-decade that we have observed in historical records, as opposed to uncertainties in the systematic nature of the global warming signal (e.g. warmer, wetter winters) The central tendency of the estimated future 100 year flood (Q100) is about 20% higher than the historical number for the A1B emissions scenario. In this case the central tendency of the ensemble is roughly equal to the composite delta analysis (using the average of all the climate model changes in temperature and precipitation). In some other instances these analyses are substantially different. The uncertainty estimate deriving from the 10-member Hybrid Delta ensemble supports the conclusion that Q100 will increase (e.g. ~98% confidence), but that higher or lower flood risk is possible. These uncertainties are strongly related to decadal precipitation variability in each model simulation. So these uncertainties strongly reflect the differences from decade-to-decade that we have observed in historical records, as opposed to uncertainties in the systematic nature of the global warming signal (e.g. warmer, wetter winters)

22. The river bed has risen 38 ft since 1910. Paul KennardThe river bed has risen 38 ft since 1910. Paul Kennard