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Using Cluster Analysis to Optimize Tsunami Evacuation Zones

Using Cluster Analysis to Optimize Tsunami Evacuation Zones. William Power, Biljana Lukovi ć GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand. New Zealand tsunami sources. Distant/Regional Earthquakes. Local Earthquakes. Background Figures from: Integrated Tsunami Database for Pacific.

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Using Cluster Analysis to Optimize Tsunami Evacuation Zones

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  1. Using Cluster Analysis to Optimize Tsunami Evacuation Zones William Power, Biljana Luković GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

  2. New Zealand tsunami sources Distant/Regional Earthquakes Local Earthquakes Background Figures from: Integrated Tsunami Database for Pacific

  3. Source: Mw 9.1 Southern Peru (1868) Tsunami warnings • Divide the coast into zones • Assign a threat level for each zone, based on maximum predicted water level • Example is based on shipping forecast zones – not optimised for tsunami Tsunami threat levels

  4. Source: Mw 9.1 Southern Peru (1868) Source: Mw 9.1 Southern Peru (1868) Tsunami threat levels Tsunami threat levels

  5. The Basic idea Cluster 2 Cluster 1 Max water level Fault 2 Fault 2 Fault 1 Max water level Fault 1

  6. Source locations

  7. Colours indicate clusters

  8. Problem • The standard algorithms for computing clusters do not require the members of the cluster to be contiguous

  9. No relationship between separated clusters of the same colour

  10. Conclusions • New Zealand is exposed to tsunami from many directions • Different parts of the coast are more/less susceptible to different source regions • In a warning system based around zones it is beneficial if the coast within each zone has a similar pattern of susceptibility • Cluster Analysis is one route for classifying stretches of coast according to their susceptibility to different sources • A drawback of conventional cluster analysis is that it does not constrain the clusters to be contiguous around the coast • Approaches to adding the contiguity constraint are possible, but more work is required

  11. Acknowledgments • NOAA – use of MOST and FACTS • Diana Greenslade (BOM) – discussions about warning zones • David Rhoades (GNS) – discussions about statistical analysis

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