1 / 38

Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?

Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?. Stony Brook University-SUNY CSTAR Dr. Brian A. Colle brian.colle@stonybrook.edu. Purpose: To rank the potential issues of using ensembles in operations within the National Weather Service. Survey Questions:

haig
Télécharger la présentation

Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations? Stony Brook University-SUNY CSTAR Dr. Brian A. Colle brian.colle@stonybrook.edu

  2. Purpose: To rank the potential issues of using ensembles in operations within the National Weather Service. Survey Questions: What is your current position? (operational forecaster, manager/admin, researcher, and model developer) How often do you use ensembles? Why are ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? Weight each issue from “not a problem” (= 1) to “one of the largest problems” (= 5) Rank the 8 provided issues from the largest problem to the smallest issue/problem. Open Ended Question: Other written comments regarding the difficulty in using ensembles in operations.

  3. Survey open from 9 November 2011 to 15 December 2011. Sent to all SOOs (many forwarded to other forecasters), managers, and model developers within the NWS, as well as 15-20 faculty/students at universities doing ensemble research. * The results in the following slides are separated into the following sections. Number of responses are in the ( ) All responses (166) Operational Forecasters (111) Admin / Managers (37) Researchers and Model Developers (18) Forecasters who sometimes or never use ensembles (50) Forecasters who use ensembles often or always (61) * For each section above, there are two sets of plots for questions # 3 and 4 to show the average value/rank and another to show the distribution of responses.

  4. Distribution of Responses

  5. How often do you use ensembles?

  6. 3 = 32% 2 = 35% 1 = 31% 2 = 36% Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest) Top Median Response Number Also Shown and Percent 2 = 30% 3 = 32% 3 = 31% 3 = 32%

  7. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

  8. #1 = 23% #8 = 19% #8 = 25% #5 = 19% Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations Top Median Rank Number Also Shown and Percent #4 = 19% #5 = 17% #6 = 17% #2 = 32%

  9. Operational Forecaster Results Only

  10. How often do you use ensembles?

  11. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  12. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  13. Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations

  14. Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations

  15. Manager/Admin Results Only

  16. How often do you use ensembles?

  17. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  18. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  19. Researcher / Model Developer

  20. How often do you use ensembles?

  21. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  22. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  23. Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations

  24. Operational Forecasterswho sometimes or never look at ensembles

  25. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  26. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  27. Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations

  28. Operational Forecasterswho always or often look at ensembles

  29. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  30. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  31. Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations

  32. Conclusions Nearly all forecasters use ensembles; however, only ~45% use them “sometimes.” Each ensemble issue has a large distribution of rankings (some problems were considered major for some and minor for others) – so there are a variety of opinions as illustrated by the open ended questions. The highest ranked issues are (1) the lack of tool/graphics, (2) ensemble data access, and (3) ensemble training. For forecasters who “sometimes use ensembles,” it appears that the time to view/interpret ensembles is also an issue (ranked #3). Some of this may be from the lack of good tools and data access as suggested by their open ended questions. Managers/admin view the issue of time to view/interpret ensembles as the smallest problem on average (ranked #8). Most or all researchers and model developers use ensembles. They clearly believe that the lack of tool/graphics is the largest issue.

More Related