UNDP Training Module Subject Module Volume 1 - Training Manual Demand Assessment Planning

1. UNDP Training Module Subject ModuleVolume 1 - Training ManualDemand Assessment Planning Subject Lecture Material (45 minutes)

2. Objectives of the Module • Educate the participants on • The need for demand assessment to make transportation decisions • Scientific basis for picking and planning projects • The time and money and data it takes to develop good forecasts and how to choose tools based on time and money • Cannot get the best if time and money are less • Assess the reasonableness of model assumptions and forecasts • Ensure that the model is fully validated against observed data • How to review traffic forecasts and check for reasonableness

3. Who Will the Users of this Module Be? • Policymakers, senior and mid-level staff at the national, state, and city levels, working on transport and related areas such as: land use and development, urban planning and design, environment, road safety, housing, and urban poverty alleviation. • NGOs

4. What is Demand Assessment Planning? • Assessing the demand for a transportation option in a region • Develop traffic forecasts for 10-25 year periods • Use the forecasts to develop a sustainable transportation system • Involves a complicated task of collecting existing transportation data to analyzing demand and forecast future needs • Demand Assessment is very common in private companies • They will never invest millions without assessing the demand • Use demand forecasts to come up with a production/operations plan

5. Why is Demand Assessment Planning Important? • Planning helps create a sustainable transportation system that results in increased economic activity • Failure to plan results in non-optimal choices that reduce mobility and increase vehicle ownership, leading to severe congestion • Essential to design a transportation system, plan operations, and forecast financial viability • Demand Assessment identifies corridors with the most potential users. • Planning a new system where there is little to no demand is a waste of public money. Planning a system with less capacity will make it crowded and not as attractive.

6. Case Studies of Inaccurate Demand Assessment • Bangkok BTS Skytrain (Cost: 1.5 billion USD; took 5 years to build (1994-1999)) • A ridership of 6,00,000 riders per day was projected in the first year of operation. • Assumptions made were aggressive: such as diversion of 60% of bus riders to rail during peak hours. • In the first year of operation, a ridership of only 1,50,000 was recorded. • In 2006, after six years of operation, a daily ridership of 3,50,000 has been recorded.

7. Case Studies of Inaccurate Demand Assessment • Delhi – Gurgaon Expressway (Cost: 10 billion rupees; opened to traffic in January 2008) • It carries more than 180,000 PCUs per day, which is much higher than the traffic estimates for the project by 130,000 to 150,000 PCUs per day (the traffic is growing at 9% per year). • One of the reason for this under-estimation was that NHAI relied on an outdated traffic study conducted in 1998 at the time of project procurement.

8. Common reasons for bad forecasts • Highly Optimistic Growth Scenarios for future. • Growth is never a straight line going up. What goes up comes down. • Poor Quality Data • The entire basis for forecasts is a statistical model based on data. • Garbage in Garbage out. • Statistically poor travel models due to bad data, lack of expertise and limited QA/QC. • Module has a checklist of items that need to be reviewed to ensure a sound model

9. Current Deficiencies and Solutions • No consistent baseline for planning studies • Problem: Consultants develop their own population/employment databases and forecasts using vastly different assumptions with no oversight. • Impact: Very easy to justify new developments if growth assumptions are high. Conflicting results from different studies using different assumptions. Result in lack of trust of the process. • Solution: One region, one approved demographic database.

10. Current Deficiencies and Solutions • Lack of sharing of Data. • Problem: Planning agencies do not take possession of their own models and data from consultants. • Impact: Every study results in new data collection, new model development and with differences in budget, time and expertise, results are very different. Gross wastage of money and time in redoing what has already been done. • Solution: You pay, you own (the model and data) and you share.

11. Current Deficiencies and Solutions • No QA/QC of the modeling process • Problem: Most cities do not have the capacity to review technical models • Impact: “The mice will play when the cat is away”. The best work is done only when there is a fear that somebody will check it. In the absence of a structured QA/QC process, the quality of work is highly questionable. • Solution: Review what you can or hire an independent expert

12. Current Deficiencies and Solutions • No single approved model for all studies • Problem: Most cities have several models built for various projects, each at various levels of detail, budget, data collection and expertise. • Impact: Impossible to evaluate projects if each of them uses different travel models and datasets. • Solution: One Region, One Database, One Model

13. Tools Based on Time, Budget and Type of Project

14. What Type of Modeling Tool do you Need?

15. What Type of Model do you Need?

16. What Type of Model do you Need?

17. What Type of Model do you Need?

18. Modeling Basics – Simple Solutions

19. Key Steps in Demand Assessment Planning • Definition of plans (mode, alignment, service etc) • Collect Primary and Secondary Data • Prepare a Baseline scenario depicting current ground conditions • Estimate travel models and validate them • Prepare forecasts • Evaluate several land use and transportation scenarios to prepare a final shortlist

20. 1 Data for Demand Assessment

21. Why Do We Need Data? • Understand the socioeconomic and demographic profile of the population • Understand the existing transportation infrastructure • Understand travel patterns in the city • Understand the current situation with respect to traffic congestion, usage of public transport, adequacy of public transport (coverage, crowding, etc.)

22. What Data do we need?

23. QA/ QC Checks • Prepare colour-coded GIS maps of all key data This zone is mostly a park; it should not have the highest population. A big retail mall opened in this zone, so employment should be much higher Population Distribution by Zone Population and Employment Distribution

24. 2 Baselining

25. Introduction • This is the process of documenting the current demographic, socio-economic, and transportation situation in the study area. • It gives a good idea of the present scenario in the region in terms of identifying demand and supply trends and revealing deficiencies in the system. • Developing a baseline report is an absolute necessity in developing short- and long-term transportation plans. • This section lists types of data that are necessary to build a good baseline, the sources of said data, and gives examples of maps, tables, and graphs for easy understanding.

26. Snapshot of a Region from Baseline Analysis • Gaps in the Road Network : Identify missing links, incomplete rings, radials etc • Condition of Road : List of roads in poor condition, encroachments reducing capacity etc • Adequacy of Public Transport – Identify existing routes with less capacity and potential new routes • Safety - List of Intersections with most accidents and modes that cause maximum accidents • Air Quality – Pollution levels and if there is a need to take strict measures

27. 3 Rapid Assessment Techniques

28. Sample Studies that can Use Rapid Assessment Techniques • Identifying potential public transport corridors • Bus service and route planning • Developing rough estimates of revenue on toll roads • Calculating approximate demand for a BRT line on a corridor • Analyzing the efficacy of existing transportation options

29. Basic Techniques in Rapid Assessment Techniques

30. 4 Travel Models and Forecasts

31. Travel Demand Modeling and Forecasting • A model is a process of using existing land use and transportation data to forecast future traffic and PT ridership. • Travel models have been around for more than 40 years. • Forecasts are the basis for project approvals in most developed countries.

32. Why do we Need Models • Forecasting Travel Demand is not simple • It involves many variables and complex relationships • Using rules of thumb and rapid assessment techniques is fine for short-term, medium-budget projects • For large-scale investments, it is necessary to develop forecasts that have a proven technical basis. • Useful for alternatives analysis

33. Basic Concepts in Model Development • We define a “model” as a set of data and processes that represent a real-world system and describe its behavior under alternative circumstances • Models are applied to analysis of future conditions to create forecasts • When applying a model, it is always important to use common sense and exercise appropriate judgment in interpreting results

34. General Framework of Transport Modeling • Theory of supply / demand equilibrium • Transportation supply = roads, bridges, trains, buses, airports, boats, planes • Transportation demand is derived from demand for activities (goods & services) • Transportation costs = expected time, distance, money, etc. • Cost / Time increases with demand - congestion • Demand decreases with increase in cost/time – diversion Source: Transport Models: TAG Unit 3.1.2. Department for Transport, June 2005

35. The Four-Step Modeling Process • One (extremely common) method of forecasting travel demand • Trip Generation - How many trips are made per household • Trip Distribution – Where will the trips go? • Mode Choice – Which model will the trips take? • Assignment – Which route will the trips take? Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment

36. Travel Model Inputs • Study Area – Entire Region, City, Single Corridor, Single Intersection • Divide the area into Traffic Analysis Zones • Transportation Supply - Roadway Network, Public Transport Network, Pedestrian Network • Transportation Demand – Households, Jobs • Model Parameters – Travel Behavior parameters from surveys

37. E.g. Traffic Analysis Zones – Bangalore Model Large zones in the outskirts Small zones in the city center

38. Model Inputs – Zonal Data – Population • Use Census population as a starting point for current year • Forecasts should include growth in resident population and migrant population. • Future population forecasts are based on assumptions about birth rates, death rates, and the rate of migration into or out of the study area. • Important Checks you SHOULD make • Check tabulated summaries by district • Prepare thematic maps • Compare current versus forecasts 38

39. E.g. Population Thematic Map – Bangalore

40. Model Inputs – Employment Forecasts • Get existing employment from labor departments and various organizations • Employment forecasts depend on future land use and gov’t policies • Assumptions are based on past trends and judgments of future local economic conditions • There is no ONE answer to future year forecasts. Have a RANGE of forecasts 40

41. E.g. Employment Thematic Map – Bangalore

42. Population Growth 2005-2025 – Bangalore

43. Model Inputs – Roadway and PT Networks • Accurate representation of current and future year roads and PT networks 43

44. Base and Future Year Network

45. Future Metro, Mono / High Speed Rail Network

46. Model Validation • Models are a representation of the current scenario using data and statistical analysis • Therefore, all models should be able to match current year numbers. If not, the model is not good • Every aspect of a model including input and output data has to be calibrated before using it for forecasts. • Clients should ask for a detailed validation report before approving the model • Models whose current year numbers do not match should not be approved. 46

47. Checklist for reviewing Travel Models • Roadway Networks • Important Roads, number of lanes, speed • Check vehicle operating cost assumptions (current / future year) • Value of time by mode – Car, 2 wheelers, auto rickshaws • Occupancy Factors • Public Transport • Fares, lines, frequencies etc. • Zonal Data – Check current and future year data • Prepare maps of population and employment and density • Look at jobs/residents balance • Map out all the important variables like Income class, types of employment

48. Checklist for reviewing Travel Models • Trip Generation – Look at Trips per household, • Trip Distribution – Average Trip length by purpose, compare it to larger and smaller cities to see if it is reasonable • Mode Split Mode – Mode shares in your city. Compare to other cities. Mumbai has the highest PT mode share in the country. • Assignment Models – • Highway – Model volumes for current year match observed counts. • Match by roadway classification • Match by geography • Screenlines and Cordon lines • Public Transport -Validation by route groups, totals by operator and mode

49. Checklist for reviewing Travel Models • Forecasts – Check all the input data assumptions • All approved and under construction projects that will be in operation should be coded in the model • PT Project – Check service options like frequency, travel times, speed, fares etc for reasonableness. For e.g, 15 min frequency for a high speed rail is too high • Roadway projects – Check for capacity and speeds and toll costs / toll penalty • Always get a range of forecasts for a variety of growth and service scenarios

50. 5 Future Year Forecasts