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Xcel: An Update

Xcel: An Update. Clean Energy Action January 26, 2012 Leslie Glustrom 303-245-8637 lglustrom@gmail.com. Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Kyoto Target. Electricity…. Electricity. Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009

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Xcel: An Update

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  1. Xcel: An Update Clean Energy Action January 26, 2012 Leslie Glustrom 303-245-8637 lglustrom@gmail.com

  2. Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Kyoto Target Electricity… Electricity Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/Environmental%20Affairs/climate%20and%20energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v9.pdf

  3. Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period 1951-1980. Source: update of Hansen et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, 30997-31022, 1999.

  4. Projected Temp Changes Relative to 1961-1990 http://americasclimatechoices.org/ Chapter 6, page 174, Natl Academies of Science Report 2010 Originally from Meehl 2007—Fig 10-8, IPCC Volume I (2007) www.ipcc.ch

  5. Arctic Summer Sea Ice Melt Compared to IPCC Model Projections Source: National Snow Ice and Data Center

  6. Colorado’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Source: Center for Climate Solutions GHG Inventory for Colorado Oct 2007 Available from www.rockymountainclimate.org

  7. Source of Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector October 2009 Update • 57% of • Boulder’s GHGs • From Electricity • 11% Residential • 46% Comm/Ind Electricity Transportation Electricity Source: Boulder Climate Action Plan Update October 2009 http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/CAP_Guide.pdf

  8. Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Kyoto Target Electricity… Electricity Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/Environmental%20Affairs/climate%20and%20energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v9.pdf

  9. Xcel’s Colorado Fuel Mix 2009-2010 2009 52% Coal 2010 Projected 68% Coal

  10. Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Kyoto Target Electricity… Electricity Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/Environmental%20Affairs/climate%20and%20energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v9.pdf

  11. Repowering and Decarbonizing Colorado Colorado’s Wind Potential Approx 96 GW Colorado’s Solar Potential Over 200 GW To Meet Peak Demand, Colorado Needs About 12 GW (12,000 MW) Colorado has the Potential for Over 300 GW of Wind and Solar…. And Many Companies Ready to Build Projects. Clearly, we can largely decarbonize our electricity--IF we decide to do it! Maps and Resource Potential from Colorado Governor’s Energy Office Information on Wind and Solar Bids from Xcel Energy

  12. GOOD NEWS!!! Xcel Receives Over 15,000 MW of Renewable Energy Bids in April 2009 Wind 10,000 MW Solar 3,000 MW Xcel’s Peak Load Approx. 7,600 MW (90% Fossil Fuel) Source: Xcel’s 30 Day Report 2009 All Source RFP, Colorado PUC, May 2009

  13. Clean Energy Alternatives to the Valmont Coal Plant Xcel Has Over 14,000 MW of Clean Energy Projects Ready to Go Source: Xcel’s 120 Day Report on April 2009 Bids—Docket 07A-447E Colorado PUC

  14. Xcel: System Cost Savings From Renewable Energy Source: Xcel’s 120 Day Report April 2009 RFP Docket 07A-447E Colorado PUC

  15. The Delivered Price of Coal • Going Up >10%/Year (2004-2009) Actual Coal Cost > 10%/Year Xcel Models Coal Cost <2%/Year 2) The True Cost of Coal = ????? Cents/kwh

  16. Xcel’s Projections of Future Rate Increases 2015-2020 (Assuming no carbon charges and almost flat coal prices; 2010 rates between 9-10 cents/kwh) Source: KTH-5 (Xcel Witness Karen Hyde) Docket 10M-245E Colorado PUC

  17. Source: Annual Reports from Xcel to the City of Boulder

  18. Xcel’s Indebtedness Source: www.xcelenergy.com

  19. List of Things to Try Before Considering Municipalization • Carbon Tax • Demand Side Measures • PUC Involvement • Community Choice Aggregation • Franchise Negotiations • Approach Xcel with Request

  20. Colorado Municipal Utilities 29 Colorado Munis: Lyons, Loveland, Longmont, Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, etc Source: CAMUColorado Association of Municipal Utilities

  21. RenewablesYES A Remarkable Volunteer Effort

  22. Key Questions for Citizen Experts: • How Much Renewable Energy? • What Will it Do to Rates?

  23. Boulder’s Load 100 MW baseload 100 MW “Baseload” i.e. “Coal”

  24. 20% Renewable Electricity 100 MW baseload

  25. 30% Renewable Electricity 100 MW baseload

  26. 30% Renewable Electricity Around 30% Renewables, Baseload Coal & Nuclear make no sense. 100 MW baseload

  27. 50% RE. 0 Battery. 4% Overgeneration

  28. How do we get to 100% Renewable Electricity? To get to 100% - practical tech isn’t obvious.

  29. Xcel…Chained to Coal Over 1800 MW of Coal Through 2033 Pueblo 1170 MW Retire 2033, 2035, 2069 Brush 505 MW Retire 2041 Hayden 237 MW Retire 2025 and 2036 Craig 84 MW Retire 2040 and 2039 Xcel Path: Approx 60% Electricity from Coal in 2011 and 35% in 2030 2011 to 2018 Approx. $400 Million Pollution Controls for Brush and Hayden (Won’t Address CO2) Dockets 10M-245E and 11A-325E Colorado PUC

  30. Renewable % Comparison— Xcel v Boulder Municipal at Rate Parity Muni Renewable % (at Rate Match) Xcel Renewable % (under 2010 RPS) Graphs by “Renewables Yes “ Using Data from Xcel Provided to City of Boulder and in PUC Dockets

  31. Fossil Fuel Use— Xcel Projections v Boulder Muni at Rate Match Xcel Total Fossil Fuel Use Muni Total Fossil Fuel Use Graph by “Renewables Yes” Using Data from Xcel and Modeling Projections; Source data available on request.

  32. The Delivered Price of Coal • Going Up >10%/Year (2004-2009) Actual Coal Cost > 10%/Year Xcel Models Coal Cost <2%/Year 2) The True Cost of Coal = ????? Cents/kwh

  33. Municipal Rates? • Likely to Meet or Beat Xcel: • Up to 40% Renewable Energy • Reasonable Acquisition Costs • Reasonable Stranded Costs • Bond Rates Under 8% Hundreds of Modeling Runs Done in 2011: Cannot Get Further Refinement without Final Acquisition and Stranded Cost Numbers Details at www.renewablesyes.org

  34. Municipal Reliability? Munis Typically Have Better Reliability Than IOU’s. Colorado Springs, Loveland and Fort Collins All Have Substantially Better Reliability Than Xcel Has in Either Boulder or Denver

  35. Citizens Lead the Way!! • Express Enthusiasm • Letters to the Editor and Op-Eds • Blog on Daily Camera • Arrange a Talk/Sponsor a Forum • House Party • Attend Planning Meetings

  36. 2005 Coal Deliveries to Power Plants by Region—Graphic by Ventyx Red = Powder River Basin

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