Intuition in Strategic Thinking

1. Intuition in Strategic Thinking Gisle Henden MBM MA MPHIL Dr stip Why is it important ? What is intuition ? How can we develop it ?

2. Why is intuition important in strategy? Today, many companies have done much of the hard work of catching up on quality, cost, speed and flexibility. That is, there is little to gain from further improvements in these areas. How then, should we proceed? Hamel & Prahalad

3. We need to explore and cultivate the potential of those activities, that are time-bound to a lesser extent. The mind is the single most important asset in this respect.

4. Strategic Planning is Analytic • Strategic Thinking is Intuitive Henry Mintzberg

5. What do research tell us? One critical finding, in a survey including 1300 practicing managers from nine countries, is that intuition is perceived as playing a major role in their professional lives. 56 % using both intuition and logic/reasoning in almost equal measure, and a further 7,5 % stating that they actually use intuition more. Almost 80 % believe that intuition has relevance in corporate strategy and planning. Parikh et al. 1994

6. What do researchers say? “Studying intuition is a way to create a more realistic view of how strategic decision makers actually think.” Eisenhardt & Zbaracki

7. What do top strategists say? ”In these thirty years, that I have had the pleasure to lead organizations, it has almost always gone well, when I have trusted my intuition. When I have done things the old, traditional way, it has not turned out so favourably.” Jan Carendi CEO Skandia

8. What do scientists say? “Fragmentation is now very widespread, not only throughout society, but also in each individual. This is leading to a general confusion of the mind, which creates an endless series of problems, and interferes with our clarity of perception, so seriously as to prevent us from being able to solve most of them.” David Bohm

9. Cost, Speed & Accuracy of Intuition • The analytic approach to problem solving produces the precise answer more often, but its distribution of errors is quite wide. • In contrast to this, intuition is less frequently precise, but more consistently close to the correct answer. Peters et. al.

10. Decisions aided by intuition are available immediately. • Analysis would seem to be slower & costlier. • Though, intimate knowledge of the subject, may be required for intuition to work properly. The investment cost of intuition is therefore much higher.

11. What is Intuition? • A Hunch • Gut Feeling • Sudden Insight • Tacit Knowledge • Perception of the Unconscious • Foresight • Synthesis • Language of Metaphors, Symbols & Analogies

12. Definition: Intuition is the event which occurs when an individual reaches a conclusion on the basis of less explicit information than is ordinarily required to reach that conclusion. Malcolm Westcott

13. At any given moment one is conscious of only a small section of what one knows.

14. Definition: Intuition allows one to draw on that vast storehouse of unconscious knowledge that includes not only everything that one has experienced or learned, either consciously or subliminally, but also the infinite reservoir of the collective or universal unconscious, in which individual separateness and ego boundaries are transcended. Frances Vaughan

15. Intuition …. • Looks in-to-it • Perceives what is unconscious • Visualizes it as pictures, symbols, archetypes, metaphors, analogies • Connect and link it to consciousness • Synthesize elements of knowledge and information to coherent patterns and wisdom • Finds the meaning

16. Can intuition be wrong?

17. Intuitive problem solving; Intuition advocate harmony between thinking, feelings, and information provided by the five senses.

18. How can we develop our intuition? • Meditation, quieting the mind • Receptive, non-judgmental attitude • Dream interpretation • Visualization • Guided imagery • Understanding of symbols, myths, and archetypes. • Focus simultaneously in and out • Use environment as mirror

19. Preferences in Judgement & Perception

20. Your Values Take some time and try to figure out what your three most important values are.

21. Intuition versus Sensing • A cynical person knows the prize on everything, and has no clue about the value. • The beauty is in the eye of the beholder. • Happiness is not to have many things. Happiness is to be satisfied with what you’ve got. • We don’t love people because we find them beautiful. We find people beautiful because we love them.

22. Intuition versus Feelings • It is not a problem being treated unfair, if you do not allow yourself to remember it. • We may not trust our emotions, but nevertheless, they reveal the greatest secrets. • By hurting others you are also hurting yourself.

23. Intuitive understanding .... • Strangers are friends that you have not met before. • We should be interested in the future, because thats where we are going to spend the rest of our life. • The best we can do for others is not to share our wealth with them, but to show them their own.

24. Exploration versus Exploitation Refinements & improvements of conventional knowledge and established methods, provide short-run gains that are compelling. As we develop greater and greater competence in using these established technologies & strategies, we become less and less willing or able to change to newer ones that offer longer-run superiority. James March

25. What to do? • Treat intuition as real • Treat memory as an enemy • Treat experience as a theory • Treat the self as a hypothesis James March

26. A little story .... There was a poor farmer who had a chicken, which suddenly produced an egg made of gold ...... His surprise was great, when this happened the next morning as well. And the next, and the next, ..... After some time, he became rich and greedy. He decided to kill the chicken, opened it up and searched for even more eggs ......