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Introduction to Statistics for the Social Sciences SBS200, COMM200, GEOG200, PA200, POL200, or SOC200 Lecture Section 001, Fall 2015 Room 150 Harvill Building 10:00 - 10:50 Mondays, Wednesdays & Fridays. Welcome. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSQJP40PcGI. Please fill this out.

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Welcome

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  1. Introduction to Statistics for the Social SciencesSBS200, COMM200, GEOG200, PA200, POL200, or SOC200Lecture Section 001, Fall 2015Room 150 Harvill Building10:00 - 10:50 Mondays, Wednesdays & Fridays. Welcome http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSQJP40PcGI

  2. Please fill this out

  3. Show of hands: How many people would like to add this class? Please fill this out

  4. Lab sessions Everyone will want to be enrolled in one of the lab sessions Labs start Next week

  5. Announcements Extra credit: design a creative way to teach some concept in the course. Computer animation Video animation Should be animated and include both 1. an explanation of the concept being taught and 2. an opportunity for the viewer to quiz themselves on the material

  6. Start by reading • Please read: • Online supplemental reading 1 (Appendix D)

  7. Textbooks • Primary Text: • Introductory Statistics. • OpenStax College • http://cnx.org/content/col11562/latest/ • E.copies are available free online • Hard copies are available bookstore • Selected readings from • Online supplemental reading 1 (Appendix D) • 100 Questions (and Answers) About Research Methods. Neil J Salkind (2012). • The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. S Plous (1993).

  8. Course website • http://courses.eller.arizona.edu/mgmt/delaney/ • Announcements • Syllabus • Link to D2L • Grades • Some online homework assignments

  9. Notetakers Name Major email phone #

  10. Why study stats? Let’s start with four short demonstrations

  11. Demonstration 1: A Memory Test Try to remember these word lists for a recall test Important: Try not to mix up the lists!!

  12. Why does that work?

  13. Demonstration 2: A Counting Test Count how many times the ball is passed by the team in the white shirts (not the black shirts – just the white) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahg6qcgoay4&watch_response

  14. Why does that work?

  15. Demonstration 3: A Test of Disambiguation

  16. Please close your eyes Right half of room

  17. Really !

  18. . This is a rat

  19. Please close your eyes Left half of room

  20. Really !

  21. . This is a man

  22. Please open your eyes Everyone

  23. . What is this a picture of?

  24. . This is a rat This is a man What is this a picture of?

  25. . Everyday our “biases” affect how we see the world and make decisions. Expectations affect our perceptions of the world. Our knowledge affects our perceptions of the world. New knowledge can reshape what we see.

  26. Demonstration 4: Another Test of Disambiguation New knowledge can reshape what we see.

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  39. Demonstration 1: Our prior knowledge will influence our memories – inserting what was never there Demonstration 2: Our interests will influence what we see – making invisible what is right in front of us Demonstration 3: Our recent experiences will influence what we see – making one interpretation much more likely Demonstration 4: Our current environment will influence what we see – making images meaningful

  40. Not just “tricks”, but demonstrations that show even the most basic interpretations of what we perceive and remember in the physical world is malleable and vulnerable. How we interpret social interactions and business problems are similarly vulnerable to bias. Careful measurement helps us account for these biases.

  41. Every day we disambiguate what we see, remember, interpret and understand. Why study stats? Every time we see, or remember, or understand a problem we are vulnerable to biases. Biases can impede or improve our decision making. (We want to minimize “bad biases” while maximizing “good biases” to our decision making) It is important to be aware of our own vulnerability to biases and illusions in social settings and in even the most basic daily experiences.

  42. Statistics and research methods allow us to try to “take into account” our natural tendencies for specific kinds of biases “When presented new information, we have no other option than to relate it to what we already know – there is no blank space in our minds within which new information can be stored so as not to “contaminate” it with existing information” - Clifford Konold, Scientific Reasoning Research Institute, University of Massachusetts* * From Issues in Assessing Conceptual Understanding in Probability and Statistics By Clifford Konold, University of Massachusetts. Journal of Statistics Education v.3, n.1 (1995)

  43. Why study stats? POWER!!Be able to defend that your methods are better than others – lead to advancement

  44. Why study stats? Cake: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBjNzJEWpCI Cops: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5m_g72KaKg

  45. Why study statistics? • Literacy in language of statistics • Study of stats provides opportunity for improving your computer literacy and management of databases and technical literacy • Data management • Too much??! - Stats can help you simplify • Too little ??!? – Stats can help you fill in the blanks (smartly) • Career Advancement (how helpful you are to others) • Improvement of own critical thinking • (own life-long cognitive development)

  46. Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences What is this course for? • Improve skills for using data to inform our daily decisions and to avoid problems that arise from biases and illusions. • Exploring the assumptions and principles underlying • experimental methodologies and findings • Practice critical evaluation of data and claims both in • the popular media and in scientific publications • Practice completing calculations and applying the solutions • to applied situations in daily life and in scientific inquiry

  47. Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences How will we do it? • Lectures and reading • Laboratory research and projects • In-class assignments • Homework assignments

  48. Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences Instructor:Suzanne Delaney, Ph.D. Office:405 “N” McClelland Hall Phone:621-2045 Email:delaney@u.arizona.edu Office hours:2:00 – 3:30Monday and Wednesdays and by appointment

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