Discussant’s Comments: “India and the 12 th Plan: Reaping the Demographic Dividend”

1. Discussant’s Comments: “India and the 12th Plan: Reaping the Demographic Dividend” AnjiniKochar Stanford Center for International Development

2. Abhijit’s presentation: • Notes our failures in health and primary education, and the ineffectiveness of government programs - ICDS, AWCs, PDS, government primary schools, PHCs, ASHA worker, etc. • Solutions: food fortification, micronutrients, immunization, nutritional awareness, dedicated reading time, curriculum change, tracking, ICT, etc.

3. Key question: If previous government programs failed, why would a new set do any better? • Same failure in the 12th Plan – no shortage of ideas of what has to be done. • Implicit assumption: Govt programs did not work in the past because they were the “wrong” programs. • Alternative explanation: inability of the govt to deliver services.

4. 3 points • Severe shortage of human capital – doctors, teachers -- makes it impossible to deliver government services • Centralized planning (or centralized norms) • Lack of planning, implementation failures

5. Illustrate the first point in context of Malnutrition in Bihar • Abhijit has already presented data on Bihar • ICDS is ineffective. • Why? • National norm: one AWC for every 800 population. In most districts of Bihar, this is not the case.

6. Population per AWC in one block, Araria District, Bihar(mean=1244, min=400, max=400096% of AWCs serve a population greater than the norm)Result: most people don’t use AWCs

10. Number of students covered per day in school visits, district Bhagalpur, PHC Bihpur (mean=378, max=900)

11. Number of students covered per day, Khagaria district, PHC Beldour(mean=354, max=1400)

16. 2. Centralized policies • School policies that compensate small schools for their initial disadvantages – multi-grade instruction and low SES of schooling community • (Kochar 2012): finds no negative effect of multi-grade instruction, but significant class size effects. • So, smaller classes in small schools should overcome disadvantage of low SES • Except that, in Karnataka, village size – and hence school size – is significantly smaller in the more developed South.

17. Village size, North and South Karnataka

18. School size, survey data, North and South Karnataka

19. 3. Implementation • Nali Kali program in Karnataka – activity based learning • Combines students from grades 1, 2. • Children sorted by ability and work at their own pace • Learning through “steps” and “milestones” and proceed to next step only after mastery of previous one • Children constantly monitor their own progress on learning charts • Emphasis on activities and learning through activities

24. Effect on Cognitive and Non-cognitive skills A 1 year increase in years of exposure to NK increases lang and math test scores by approximately 2 percentage points

25. Why relatively little effect on learning? • Could say that it was the wrong program and need new programs • But, implementation: Program was announced in May 2009, and implemented in June 2009 on scale • Lack of materials, training • In 2010 – extended to grade 3, with plan of extending to grade 4 in 2011 • Teacher agitation in 2010-2011 against extension, demanding scale back to grades 1 and 2 • Decision regarding the program was made only in May 2012 (a few weeks prior to school starting) • Did not scale back, but kept it to grades 1-3

26. Teacher understanding of basic NK principles, 2012 (mean=77, std. dev=19) In Northern districts: 40% of teachers scored less than 75 (18% <60) In South: 27% scored less than 75 (10% <60)

27. Conclusion • Even if something works in a pilot, very different when the program is taken to scale • Then, all the problems of weak institutions, lack of human capital come into place, making implementation very difficult • Main point: failure of most programs may have more to do with implementation, than with the program itself • Unless this is addressed, seems senseless to go on implementing new programs every year.