Timber Products Output Where we want to go and How to get there

1. Timber Products OutputWhere we want to go and How to get there

2. Outline • Future Vision • Current Steps Towards Vision • Plan for Next Steps • Future Options

3. Future Vision “Imagine visiting a website where you draw a circle on a map with an immediate return of timely population estimates such as growing stock volume on timberland, removals, mortality, coarse woody debris all coupled with mill census information regarding roundwood harvests by species and corresponding harvest/processing residues”

4. Future Vision Live Trees Removals Biomass Roundwood Products Mill Location Mill Residues

5. Steps Toward Vision Northern FIA National TPO Team Nationalized, Modernized, Timely TPO Northern FIA Southern FIA Southern FIA Western FIA Western FIA Pre-2010 2010 - 2011 Eventual Future * RMRS and PNW TPO Conducted through RJVA with Univ. of Montana

6. Future Vision Elements • TPO RPA every 5 years • One static, isolated online tool • Nationally inconsistent data collection • Timely – Dynamic TPO database • Online Tools – Data collection and distribution • Phase 2 and Phase 3 synchronicity • Stable mill census • All wood use accounting • Nationally consistent Future Now

7. What Does Vision Buy Us? $ Program Expansion = = Save Efficiencies • One database • One survey tool • “The Power of One” • Stabilize mill surveys • Utilization studies • Explore strategic partnerships

8. All Wood Use Accounting • Solid/paper products and energy (biomass); mill residue; logging residue • Logging/harvest utilization studies throughout the country • Virgin fiber…not recycled • Explore strategic partnerships: DOE, Census Bureau, and/or FPL

9. Incremental Steps Towards Vision With Your Help Pre-2010 Now

10. 2010-2011 Activities • A national TPO team with reps from all regions • A draft set of national TPO core report tables • Monthly CC’s are held to coordinate nationalization efforts • 6 half-day database CC’s • 1 week workshop in St. Paul in July, 1 week workshop in Asheville in October • All activities documented at fia-ab.wikidot.com • Programmers from each region assisting TPO team with national TPO database/documentation development • Working with FIDO developers on online data collection/analysis/reporting tools • 1st-ever national pulpwood report for 2008

11. National Pulpwood Report

12. Database Design (Data Tables)

13. Proposed Documentation

14. National TPO Mill Survey Tool • Meets eGov initiative: online data entry for paper survey • Provides mill ability to enter their data directly onlineORCooperator/Forest Service enters mill’s data from paper form • Secure login, encrypted data transmission and storage • Ability to start survey, save and finish at later time • Integrated data checks for improved QA • Storage in Oracle database • Data entry is integrated with national TPO data processing system

15. National TPO Mill Survey Tool

16. Integrated Data Checks

17. Developing a Plan for the Future

18. Future Options Which Data? How we Collect? How Often? Who Collects? Data Management? Who Analyzes? Which Website?

19. Preferred Future • Mill censuses • Conducted periodically (2-5 years) (pulpwood annually) • Conducted by mix of FS, State, and university cooperators • Data include national core + regional add-ons • Dynamic national processing system in NIMS • Regionally prepared state TPO reports…national TPO database used for national reports/queries • Improved data collection and management systems that allow expanded research and reporting products • New online tools/applications, enhance access to TPO and FIA-inventory data for users • Explore logging utilization studies nationally • Coordination with DOE on fuelwood inventories • Facilitate annual imputation research • Explore coordination with FPL • Census Bureau partnership

20. Still Open for Ideas ? ? ? 2010 Census 2015 Census 2010 Census 2015 Census e.g. Annual Imputation

21. Annual Imputation • New TPO database could be annualized…. But…. • Development of consistent imputation estimators • Strategic partnerships (e.g., FPL) needed for research • State help with sampling frame development and annual mill sample

22. Data Stabilization Options • Lengthen cycles in the states where state support is waning and the cycle is shorter than 5 years. • Buy-down to the 5-year P2 cycle and true “in-kind” state contributions to TPO effort. • Explore competitive grants (e.g., USDA, DOE, NSF) to periodically help pay for mill censuses and/or logging utilization studies. • Any more additional $ that FIA programs can contribute towards TPO? • Explore writing TPO work (e.g., mill surveys and utilization studies) into state/cooperator field work.

23. Remember… TPO is Cooperative process with States States: Have mill contacts…collect data FIA: Processes data, reports, and distributes

24. Budget Uncertainty Outcomes

25. Possible Outcomes • $ Reductions: Efficiencies through nationalization may maintain current program…we are building national data system…states need to fill with quality/timely data. • $ Flat: Incremental progress if existing contractor continues database development efforts with programming staff (2 FTEs). • $ Additions: Utilization studies, stabilized data collection, progress on national database (years instead of decades?), staffing to pursue internal/external FIA imputation research

26. Summary • Users have been heard • Progress has been made…must occur hand-in-hand with states • With your help we can go much farther