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JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2009 YEAR IN REVIEW

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2009 YEAR IN REVIEW. Typhoon Vamco 200908211836 85H TRMM. 64th INTERDEPARTMENTAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE 1- 4 MARCH 2010 SAVANNAH, GA. Ed Fukada. JTWC Technical Advisor. Expression of Sympathy for the Cold Weather. MISSION.

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JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2009 YEAR IN REVIEW

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  1. JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2009 YEAR IN REVIEW Typhoon Vamco 200908211836 85H TRMM 64th INTERDEPARTMENTAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE 1- 4 MARCH 2010 SAVANNAH, GA Ed Fukada JTWC Technical Advisor

  2. Expression of Sympathy for the Cold Weather

  3. MISSION Provide tropical cyclone analysis, forecast and warning support for Department of Defense, and other US Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established by Commander, United States Pacific Command.

  4. JTWC AOR RSMC Miami 33% 8% 1 7% 7% 11% 13%

  5. TC ACTIVITY Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal 2005: 2006: 5 2007: 6 2008: 7 2009: 5 25 Yr avg: 5 NW Pacific 2005: 2006: 26 2007: 27 2008: 27 2009: 28 25 Yr avg: 31 C Pacific 2005: 1 2006: 1 2007: 0 2008: 1 2009: 3 25 Yr avg: 2 NE Pacific 2005: 16 2006: 21 2007: 15 2008: 18 2009: 20 25 Yr avg: 18 25 7 South Pacific & E. Australia Region 2005: 8 2006: 8 2007: 10 2008: 8 2009: 9 25 Yr avg: 10 S. Indian Ocean & W. Australia Region 2005: 18 2006: 15 2007: 14 2008: 21 2009: 18 25 Yr avg: 18 5

  6. 2009 SATELLITE RECON FIXES BY AGENCY (Total: 14,853) 2009 Station Fixes (All Agencies) 50 33 54 99 283 36 5 187 113 3078 343 86 94 933 41 10095 93 42 PGTW RJTD KNES PHFO FMEE NFFN ABRF ADRM APRF DEMS NZKL

  7. SATELLITE RECON JTWC (PGTW) FIXES (Total: 10,095) 2009 All Sensor Fixes (PGTW Only) 5 23 3 267 806 426 3129 446 843 673 1697 1129 215 439 MTSAT SSMIS MET7 WIND GOES11 QSCT FY WSCT AMSU ASCT SSMI MMHS AMSR TRMM

  8. SATELLITE RECON MICROWAVE FIXES BY JTWC Total Microwave Fixes: 4,857 (48% of total) 6% AMSU SSMI MMHS AMSR TRMM SSMIS WIND 24% 267 18% 1129 453 806 426 673 446 843 9% 15% 10% 18%

  9. 2009 NORTH IO TRACKS

  10. 2009 S-HEMI TRACKS

  11. 2009 WESTPAC TRACKS Tropical Depressions: 6 Tropical Storms: 8 Typhoons: 11 (17.6) Super Typhoons: 4 (4)

  12. 2009 TC Impact Examples

  13. JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC - 24-72 Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 2005 63 104 169 2006 64 106 151 2007 61 100 147 2008 66 2009 65 Goal 50 100 150 120 198 122 183

  14. 2009 WPAC TRACK ERRORS STORM BY STORM 500 450 400 24hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 350 300 Error (nm) 250 200 Average 72 Hour Error = 183 nm 150 Average 48 Hour Error = 122 nm 100 Average 24 Hour Error = 65 nm 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Storm Number

  15. JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC - 96-120 Hours) 96 Hr 120 Hr 2005 212 263 2006 216 309 2007 187 214 2008 301 2009 258 298 Goal 200 250 447

  16. 2009 WPAC TRACK ERRORS STORM BY STORM 700 600 96 Hours 120 Hours 500 400 Error (nm) Average 120 Hour Error = 298 nm 300 Average 96 Hour Error = 258 nm 200 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Storm Number

  17. 2009 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC – Non-Homogeneous) 700 650 600 550 500 450 JTWC CONW GFS UKMO ECMWF ECMWF2 GFDN NGPS 400 Error (nm) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 Forecast Tau

  18. JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (WESTPAC 24 - 120 Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 96Hr 120Hr 2005 12 18 23 25 25 2006 13 18 20 22 24 2007 11 18 23 24 26 2008 12 19 21 2009 12 19 25 26 27 22 28

  19. 2009 WPAC INTENSITY ERRORS STORM BY STORM 45 24hours 48 Hours 72 Hours 40 35 30 Average 72 Hour Error = 25 kts 25 Error (kts) 20 Average 48 Hour Error = 19 kts 15 Average 24 Hour Error = 12 nm 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Storm Number

  20. 2009 WPAC INTENSITY ERRORS STORM BY STORM 45 40 35 Average 96 Hour Error = 26 kts Average 120 Hour Error = 27 kts 30 25 Error (kts) 96 Hours 120 Hours 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Storm Number

  21. 2009 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (WESTPAC – Non-Homogeneous) 50 45 40 35 JTWC GFS ECMWF GFDN NGPS ST10 ST11 S511 30 Error (kts) 25 20 15 10 5 0 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 Forecast Tau

  22. 2010 Projects/Areas for Development Genesis or Development potential – Poor (Low) / Fair (Medium) / Good (High) analysis – Use of radiance data (Ritchie) Intensity analysis, forecast and verification – ATCF objective best track – ADT/SATCON – AMSU Ensemble TC forecasting Rapid intensification diagnoses and prediction Extratropical transition d & p TC / TUTT cell interaction d & p Singular vector analysis – Application of sensitivity studies (Reynolds, et. Al.) • Evaluation outlier events – In JTWC – In model guidance Improvements to data processing, display, analysis and storage – Google Earth tool (GEMINI) e.g. clickable microwave imagery – PZAL archive – JTWC Automation Management System (JAMS) • • • • • • • •

  23. Operational Items • S. Hem warnings every 12 hours to 5 days • N. IO warnings every 6 hours to 5 days • Re-establishment/redetermination of ATCF Funding • Increase use of microwave data for intensity analysis • Participation in ITOP / TCS-10

  24. Contact Info • Director robert.falvey@navy.(smil).mil COM: (808) 474-5301 DSN: (315) 474-5301 • Technical Advisor edward.fukada@navy.mil COM: (808) 474-5305 DSN: (315) 474-5305 • Operations Officer (JTOPS) jeremy.callahan@navy.(smil).mil COM: (808) 471-4597 DSN: (315) 471-4597

  25. QUESTIONS

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