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Understand the Economics of Real Help Systems

”. Understand the Economics of Real Help Systems. By Karl Robinson Stoke-on-Trent City Council 17 th October 2013. What Does Success Look Like?. Problems We Wanted to Solve Does this way of working improve things for our residents? Is this way of working Affordable and Scalable?

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Understand the Economics of Real Help Systems

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  1. ” Understand the Economics of Real Help Systems By Karl Robinson Stoke-on-Trent City Council 17th October 2013

  2. What Does Success Look Like? • Problems We Wanted to Solve • Does this way of working improve things for our residents? • Is this way of working Affordable and Scalable? • Will it reduce demand on the whole system? • What are the links to the Cross Economy system and the Problems they have to solve e.g. • Health – Reducing the demand on A&E admissions • Police – Reducing the number of both uniformed and non uniformed staff without compromising the service • Social Care – Getting better results with less resources i.e. impact of having Children in Care

  3. Understand the Customer “C” “W”

  4. Demands in Context

  5. Comparing Old and New Costs • We needed a way to understand the costs both before and after working with citizens in a different way. • Options We Explored: • Develop a new cost model • Too complex and time consuming to produce a robust model; • Identify an already available cost model that is: • Already validated and nationally recognised; • Easy to understand and adapt as we learn more about systemic economics • Solution we Identified • The DFE Cost Calculator Model

  6. The Approach To Understanding Costs • Old World • Identify all activity that had been carried out on individual citizens for a 2 year period prior to working with them in a different way • Collect all this data across partner agencies • New World • Activity based on resolving ‘Demand in Context’ at individual level • People presenting through: • Rent Arrears, Police, etc • Locality = 1 Ward in Little Chell and Stanfields

  7. Result:Cost Comparison at Individual Level

  8. Developing the Measures Framework • Approach • Identify set key strategic measures • 35 key measures identified including Rent Arrears no’s, Rent Arrears £’s, Police ASB No’s, Rent Notices of Serving Possession (NOSP’s), etc • Feed in cases to the Locality Team from Little Chell and Stanfields • Produce data to compare Little Chell and Stanfields with City wide and 2 control groups in capability chart form to understand how the new way of working impacts on the measures

  9. What we Learnt from the Measures Strategic Measures • How do we know who to intervene with? • Can we make these people visible? - • The Missing Link Tier 2 ? Individual Measures

  10. The Tier 2 Matrix

  11. Tier 2 Challenges • Data Sharing • Partner Data • Measuring changes to cases meeting Rebalance Me triggers

  12. Our New Measures Framework Tier 3 – Strategic Demand Reduction & Cost Removal Tier 2 - Geography Capacity /Scalability 6% I am in need of serious help 16 % I could go either way 75 % I am in balance but I need a little help Tier 1 – Individual Outcomes/ Economics

  13. What Does the Measures Framework Tell Us About Working in the New Way?

  14. Impact on the Strategic Measures – Tier 3

  15. Rent Arrears - Housing tenants in arrears (amount) Pilot Geography City 5.5% decrease 13.9% decrease Comparative Geography 1 Comparative Geography 2 0.8% Increase 1.27% decrease

  16. Rent NOSPs Pilot Geography City 6.1% increase 1.56% decrease Comparative Geography 1 Comparative Geography 2 No change 33% increase

  17. Police ASB reported cases Pilot Geography City ASB 21% increase 5.2% decrease Comparative Geography 1 Comparative Geography 2 23.8% increase 5.9% increase

  18. Crime reported cases Pilot Geography City Crime 8.8% increase No change Comparative Geography 1 Comparative Geography 2 9.2% increase 14.9% increase

  19. Impact at a Systems Economic Level – Tier 1

  20. Tier 1 – Whole System Activity and Economics 10%  95%  99% 150% 174% Pre: 0 Post: 4  80%

  21. Tier 1 – Whole System Activity and Economics Pre Intervention Activity Post Intervention Activity Police4% Fire11%

  22. Tier 1 – Whole System Activity and Economics

  23. Tier 1 – Whole System Activity and Economics Pre Intervention Activity Post Intervention Activity Police 31% Criminal Justice System 49% NHS 13% Fire Service 1% Local Auth. 6%

  24. Tier 1 – Activity and Economics Cumulative Pre & Post Intervention Activity: 7 Cases Pre-Intervention Activity(Cumulative) Post-Intervention Activity(Cumulative)

  25. Tier 1 – Activity and Economics Cumulative Pre & Post Intervention Activity: 7 Cases 1,480

  26. Tier 1 – Activity and Economics Cumulative Pre & Post Intervention Activity: 7 Cases 1,480 Difference :470 1,010

  27. Tier 1 – Activity and Economics Cumulative Pre & Post Intervention Cost: 7 Cases

  28. Tier 1 – Activity and Economics Cumulative Pre & Post Intervention Cost: 7 Cases £337,000

  29. Tier 1 – Activity and Economics Cumulative Pre & Post Intervention Cost: 7 Cases £337,000 Difference :£104,000 £233,000

  30. Is it Scalable?

  31. We can estimate the total potential caseload and demand types across any geography from a street to whole city level We can use the matrix to identify and prioritise caseloads for allocation to staff, ensuring we can approach those who need help, rather than relying on picking them up through a presenting demand anywhere within the system Tier 2 – Matrix • Key findings from the matrix: • The data suggests that there is a total potential for 5482 Rebalance Me cases across the city. • Using the model of 16 ongoing cases per worker, we would need 368 workers to deal with these cases over a 12 month period. • Using the model of 16 cases per worker, we would need 119 staff to deal with the total caseload over three years. • For the test area of Little Chell and Stanfields, there are 176 cases now identified through the matrix.

  32. Triangle of Need I’m in need of serious help. • I could go either way • I am living my life well

  33. Is It Affordable?

  34. Tier 1 – Activity and Economics Economic Comparison (liner chart over time): £337,000 Difference :£104,000 £233,000

  35. A Summary of the Potential Savings • The model estimates savings of around £104,000 for the seven cases reflected. This would equate to an average saving of £14,857 per case. • Potential savings of around £81.5m (across the partnership) that could be delivered in line with roll-in plan. • Note • Small sample size and needs to be validated as cases are added into the analysis to make it more statistically robust. • This goes back to one of the data sharing issues we highlighted earlier.

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