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UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative

UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative. Dr. Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca October 2008. Structure of the presentation. The need for foresight as instrument for policy making What is foresight? Why foresight is used? Overview of foresight methods Brief history of foresight’s use

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UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative

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  1. UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative Dr. Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca October 2008

  2. Structure of the presentation • The need for foresight as instrument for policy making • What is foresight? • Why foresight is used? • Overview of foresight methods • Brief history of foresight’s use • How to do the exercise • UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative

  3. Industrial policy in the context of open innovation • Concept of innovation ecosystem (open innovation system) • Convergence of innovation and industrial policy in the context of knowledge economy • Emerging reorientation of innovation policy with new emphasis upon demand-side policies • Foresight role in creating shared strategic vision of the future

  4. Thinking about the Future Who Would Have Imagined in the Late 1980s … • the collapse of the Soviet Union and Communism? • a decade-long recession in Japan? • the rise of the Internet? • financial crash is the USA? There is no alternative to thinking about future alternatives The future is impossible to predict Assumptions about the future are inevitable

  5. Thinking about the Future - Dealing with projections into the future some biases still prevail... Absorbed by the technology itself, the impacts of technology on societal change are often ignored Lesson learned: Don‘t be preoccupied too much with technology push, take a balanced look also at societal contexts and market pull

  6. Thinking about the Future - Dealing with projections into the future some biases still prevail... Technical Feasibility is often equated with market demand Lesson learned: In a world populated by a clutter of nice technical gadgets, customers may become very selective and reserved about „disruptive technologies“

  7. Singapore South Korea Taiwan Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Organisation of transport modes Indonesia Philippines Cambodia Laos Modernization Stages Motorcycles/Tuk-Tuk/Scooters Busses/Used Cars/Passenger Vans Rail-basedTransit New Cars Intellig. Transpor-tation Systems Cart/Rikshaw Pedestrianisation Thinking about the Future - Dealing with projections into the future some biases still prevail... The potential for global diffusion of technologies is often overestimated Lesson learned: Regional and cultural differences matter, understand diversity, „time logic“ and asynchronities of societies

  8. BUSINESSENVIRONMENT Business & Industry Demography & Target Groups AUTO MARKET Competitors Consumer Behavior Customers Economy Partners Science & Technology Suppliers Energy & Environment Regulators Internet & Communication Transportation & Mobility Society, Lifestyles & Values Future-oriented Monitoring - International and future-oriented analysis of the company´s business environment FutureWatch is an annual integrated analysis of trends in the business environment that are shaping the future markets, products, and services of Mercedes-Benz in Europe, the U.S. and select other regions MERCEDES-BENZ Products & Services Regulators

  9. Product Focus Scenario Approach 2003-2013 Strategic Futures Research - Identification of opportunities and risks for existing and new products, services and processes Emerging Vehicle Markets – Regional Focus

  10. Landscape of Future Studies Focus on Markets and Business Environments (economic, political, societal, ecological) = non-technological driving forces Long term perspective Scenarios of Future Societies (e.g. Political think tanks) Short/medium term perspective Strategic Marketing and Trend Research Strategic Market Research Global Trends (e.g. World Bank, Worldwatch Institute) (Conventional market research Prospective Economic Analyses + 5 years + 10 years + 15 years Today Competition Analysis Innovation and Technology Analysis Product Impact Assessment Technology Assessment (e.g.Offices for technology assessment) Technology Monitoring Strategic Technology Monitoring Technology Foresight (e.g. Delphi-Studies, Technology Monitoring) Focus on Technologies

  11. Planning– Forecast-ForesightIs there any difference? Foresight can use forecasts, as well as contribute to planning, but it should not be confused with either activity. Planningis based on theories or doctrines on future developments; involves policy makers and experts; uses shorter time horizons – usually not over 1-5 years Forecasting tends to assume that there is one probable future, based on extrapolation or projections of past and present tends; it involves only experts; time horizons are less then 10 years, whereas Foresight assumes that there are numerous possible futures, and that the future is in fact there to be created through the actions the interested stakeholders choose to take today; it uses horizons of 10-20 years. M.Keenan, R. Seidl da Fonseca

  12. Weakness of conventional policy formulation • Simple extrapolative prediction (based on forecasting) • Narrow pool of expertise • Passive outcomes: “white papers” or policy documents • Limited ownership from the wider stakeholders • Proposals are mostly normative • Disruptive and innovative trends are difficult to predict

  13. What is foresight? • B. Martin (1995):- Research foresight is “the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits” • L. Georghiou (1996):- Technology foresight is “a systematic means of assessing those scientific and technological developments which could have a strong impact on industrial competitiveness, wealth creation and quality of life” The future is „certainly uncertain“, foresight can prepare us for a variety of "futures"

  14. Status of foresight • Multiple activities and purposes sharing a name • Content focus • Priority setting • Identifying ways in which future science and technology could address future challenges for society and identifying potential opportunities • Structural focus (increasing tendency) • Reorienting Science & Innovation system • Demonstrating vitality of S & I system • Bringing new actors into the strategic debate • Building new networks and linkages across fields, sectors & markets or around problems • Content and Structural Goals may be addressed simultaneously • All above may be at organisational, local, regional, national or supranational levels • Also foresight carrying input from S&T futures into wider policy domains

  15. Typical stakeholders in a Foresight exercise Foresight is about providing a framework for ongoing DIALOGUE between various societal actors, such as: • Government • Industry • Academia - natural & social scientists • Others, e.g. NGOs, trades unions, the media, banks, schools, the general public, etc. An important benefit for these actors is mutual (and collective) learning

  16. The context of the Foresight process

  17. Five essential elements • Anticipation and projections of long-term developments • Interactive and participative methods of debate and analysis • Forging new social networks • Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment • Implications for present-day decisions and actions

  18. Common aims of Foresight • Direction-setting • Determining priorities • Anticipatory intelligence • Informing debate • Increasing stakeholders’ involvement • Building social capital • Building identities • Advocacy • Consensus-generation • …

  19. Common Foresight features • Long-term orientation • usually over ten years • Consider a wide-range of factors • interdisciplinary approaches • Be interactive • draw on knowledge and views from different sectors and organisations • Be institutionalised • creating networks among actors • Employ formal techniques • to elicit, structure and synthesise the information

  20. What sorts of results does Foresight create? • Examples of tangible ‘products’ include: • Critical technology lists • Baseline and benchmarking studies • Scenarios and Visions • Delphi survey result databases • … • Examples of ‘process’ benefits associated with foresight include: • Networking and resultant horizontal linkages • Commitment to guiding visions / recommendations • Adoption of long-term thinking and Foresight practices => foresight culture

  21. Classes of Foresight methods

  22. Overview of some common methods (Loveridge, 1996) Creativity Science fiction Brainstorming Scenario La writing prospective Combinations Essays of methods Workshops Delphi Impact Panels Conferences matrix Interaction Expertise Alignment

  23. Knowledge about the present Alternative futures What to do The „best future“ What if What if What if Present actions Alternative futures Methods Exploratory approach: what would we expect to happen if this event happens or if that trend develops? Normative approach: what to do now to make the „best future“ happen?

  24. Application of the foresight methodology • Establishing a transparent structured decision-making process • Introducing a forward-looking attitude – anticipative intelligence • Provoking a creative and motivating decision making environment • Stimulating a participative approach • Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue • Reaching consensus around shared visions • Linking technology and innovation to wider socio-economic issues

  25. Sequencing Methods • Methods are rarely used in isolation; rather, they are used in complementary sequences • Useful to think about steps involved in foresight: • Enrolment of participants • Background data gathering, possibly forecasting • Ideas generation • Interaction between participants • Analysis and assessment • Synthesis and prioritisation • Dissemination and implementation • Possible sequence: co-nomination, trend extrapolation, bibliometric analysis, expert panels, brainstorming, Delphi, scenarios, multi-criteria decision making, workshops . . .

  26. Examples of foresight exercises • National level • Company level • Supranational level • UN response

  27. Modern Foresight family tree(National S&T-oriented exercises) • From 1970 Japanese Science and Technology Agency began periodic 30 year forecasts • French initiatives in early 1980s • Dutch foresight began activity in 1989 • US Congress established Critical Technologies Institute in 1991 • German and UK exercises major milestones • Major upsurge during 1990s, especially in Western Europe and East Asia • 2000 – EU New Member States and Latin America

  28. Mutual policy learning – selective national foresight chronology

  29. Company Foresight: Daimler Chrysler • Aim: To support strategy and product development processes • Permanent Foresight capability since 1979: Society and Technology Research Group • Covers anything that impacts on company competitiveness – around 40 studies per year • Time Horizon: typically around 10 years, but variable • Methods: Scenarios • Outcome: strategies sufficiently robust to survive most scenarios

  30. ScenarioProcess at Daimler Chrysler

  31. UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative

  32. UN Secretary General report on “Bridging the Technology Gap between and within Nations”, proposes to governments in developing countries and economies in transition, “involving representatives from industry, academia and public sectors in carrying out comprehensive technology foresight exercises with a view to identifying technologies that are likely to help address pressing socio-economic needs and establish priorities in S&T policy and governmental programmes on research and education”.

  33. Aims • Responding to the member countries’ need for a mid- and long-term development vision • Bringing a more technology-oriented focus into the relevant national and regional knowledge-based institutions • Providing assistance for a more sustainable and innovative development • Fostering economical, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levels

  34. Development Objectives • Contribute to enhancing the industrial competitiveness and expand trading potential • Foster economic, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levels • Definition of innovation policies and R&D programmes

  35. Implementation strategy & activities • Awareness building and training • Summits, Conferences and expert meetings • Electronic information exchange facility and tools • Studies and sectoral exercises • Financial mechanisms • Counterparts and coordination mechanism (EVC)

  36. Regional Dimension • Foresight as a tool for regional R&D programmes • Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through multi-country networking • Reduce costs by sharing common activities • Awareness of global and regional trends • Joint vision and solutions for cross-border problems • Concentration of multi-country production chains

  37. Future UNIDO efforts • Supportgovernments and companiesto set upforesight capabilities • Establish a connection between the construction of alternativefuture visionsthrough foresight exercises and the definition ofindustrial policies and governance framework • Set upClearing Houseson Foresight (ex. EVC)

  38. UNIDO Technology Foresight InitiativeActivities

  39. Regional or Multi-country foresight exercises and activities Capacity Building Training Programme on Technology Foresight (2001-8) Summit Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary (2003-7) Projects Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost (2005-6) Future of the Andean Products: Medicinal Plants (2006-7) Future of the Food Industry in 6 CEE countries (2007-9) Future of the Andean Products: Textiles (2008-2009)

  40. Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach: Multicountry Participation of differentcountries Plurinational Multisectorial Complex production chains Complex production chains

  41. Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach: Productive Chains Production processes Markets Products Identification of: Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries Required cooperation for technology up-grading

  42. THE FUTURE OF THE FISHERY INDUSTRY South American Pacific Coast

  43. Fishery Productive chain RESOURCES PROCESSING Marine Fresh water Canned EXTRACTION Aquaculture HUMAN CONSUMPTION Frozen Factory ships Cured Seine INDUSTRIALINPUTS Concentrated Small scale Intermediate and final agricultural goods Hydrolysed Aquaculture NON - HUMAN CONSUMPTION Industrial intermediate goods Semi-refined oils Refined oils Meals and crude oils Production services Capital goods Balanced food Animal feed Infrastructure

  44. Methodology Methodology Strengh and weakness of the environment National productive chains: fleets, industry, markets National Diagnostics Regional Panel Regional Situation National Panels Consultations National Foresight Studies Regional Panel and Report Decision Making Processes Tools of Action Critical Technologies

  45. Results/Recommendations • Definition of a regional policy • Technology up-grading and investment promotion for re-conversion and modernization • Creation of new regional center for capability building and technology watch/road mapping • Establishing a quality mark of origin for the fish products of the region

  46. THE FUTURE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY Central and Eastern European Countries

  47. Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Project: Healthy and Safe Food for the Future - A Technology Foresight Project in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia Contract no.: 43005 FutureFood6 European Commission – 6th Framework Starting date: 01 February 2007 Duration: 2 years

  48. Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe - The immediate goal: • to assist thetotal food chainin Central and Eastern European countries to reach international standards • to enhance Europeancompetitivenessas a whole bydeveloping an industry, which is synonymous withsafety, diversity, sophistication and products of high quality.

  49. Future of the Food Industry in Eastern EuropeProject team UNIDO OPTI WIIW UNIDO OPTI FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION GROUP (FIG) Hungary IEHAS Czech Rep. TC AS CR Slovakia BIC Group Croatia NWMC Romania UEFISCSU Bulgaria ARC Fund Committee of high-level national policy-makers Knowledge institutions on food industry from every participating country

  50. Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe - Project strategy: 1.  Mobilization of a variety of stakeholders groups 2.  A socio-economic scenario building exercise 3.  Interviews with specialists. 4.  A survey on key technologies 5.  Future vision building exercise 6. Technology road mapping Work plan flowchart

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