Political Ways and Means to Address Climate Change

Political Ways and Means to Address Climate Change SID lectures series Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, February 18, 2008 Co-referent Prof. Pier Vellinga Wageningen UR and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Climate change is the ultimate test for international cooperation • The effect human activities on the climate system can only effectively be reduced when all major countries act in cooperation; • Without the USA, the EU and Russia there will not be an effective start; • Without China and India participating within a decade, the efforts of EU, Russia and USA will have little effect; • Financing adaptation would follow from the OECD adhered “polluter pays principle”, a major challenge for international cooperation;

Wereldwijde CO2 uitstoot 1990 - 2006

Sharing mechanisms • Sharing emissions on a per capita basis or on a per GDP basis…? • Cap and convergence model; • All countries and the UN in the driving seat? • Major countries in the driving seat? • The role of sectors? • Taxes, regulation and/or trading schemes?

Dilemma’s • What is “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”; • What is anthropogenic climate change and what is natural variability; • What does it mean: “common but differentiated responsibilities”; • Cost as well as benefits of climate change, both for mitigation and for adaptation strongly depend on planning and investment capabilities and practices of countries;

Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor. But not the only one;Land use will become a major source

Political Ways and Means to Address Climate Change