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Climate Monitoring, Prediction and Related Services at CIMH. Adrian Trotman Chief Applied Meteorology and Climatology Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology. CARICOF Climate Training Workshop, Barbados 27-29 February, 2012. Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology. CIMH.
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Climate Monitoring, Prediction and Related Services at CIMH Adrian Trotman Chief Applied Meteorology and Climatology Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology CARICOF Climate Training Workshop, Barbados 27-29 February, 2012
CIMH The Training, Research and Data Archiving arm of the Caribbean Meteorological Organisation Mandate “… to assist in improving and developing the Meteorological and Hydrological Services as well as providing the awareness of the benefits of Meteorology and Hydrology for the economic well-being of the CIMH member states. This is achieved through training, research, investigations and the provision of related specialized services and advice”.
PRIMARY FUNCTIONS • Train various categories of meteorological and hydrological personnel • Operate as a centre of research in meteorology, hydrology and associated sciences • Data collection, storage, & dissemination • Maintain, repair, and calibrate meteorological & hydrological instruments • Advise regional governments on matters related to meteorology & hydrology • Provide consulting services to industry
Climate Related Risks Challenge Sustainable Development • Over the last 3 decades, direct and in-direct losses estimated at between USD 700 – 3,300 million due to extreme weather events (Inter-American Development Bank, 2007); • Cumulative annual impact of future climate change on all CARICOM Member and Associate Member States by ca. 2080 will be about USD 11.2 billion or 11.3 percent of the projected annual GDP (World Bank, 2009): • Most significant contributors are expected to be direct losses due to climate related disasters: • USD 2.6 billion due to wind damage; • USD 363.2 million due to flood damage; • USD 3.8 million due to drought; • USD 447 million due to loss of tourism revenues;.
Data Archiving and Data ServicesEssential to Climate Services
Meteorological Data Archiving in the Caribbean • Why collect and archive? What is the importance of archived data? • Better understand the climatology of the region to support sectoral planning (e.g., agriculture, water resources planning, insurance, etc) • Support for global climate databases (e.g., GCOS) • Support engineering designs (e.g., drainage design to support flood mitigation) • Environmental change detection • Supports design of alternative systems and energy mix
Regional Climate Data Archiving at CIMH • Responsible for storing/archiving meteorological and meteorological data from CMC Member States • Not all Member States are currently utilizing CIMH’s data archiving capabilities • Not all data collecting agencies in countries share data with NMHS … as a result, comprehensive data sets for most countries is not available • CIMH can handle data in a range of formats including CLIDATA and CLICOM which are supported by WMO … hydrological database also present • Quality Assurance checks performed by CIMH on the data received and archived • Monthly Weather Summaries prepared from meteorological data received (available in electronic format http://www.cimh.edu.bb) • In the past, few data products produced from data collected … situation is changing
Challengesto Data Archiving at CIMH • Failure of several countries to archive data at CIMH • Costs associated with data collection and archiving systems • Data collection, archiving and quality assurance at CIMH is approximately USD 250,000.00 • Most of these costs are not recoverable • As more databases are added costs will increase • Sustainability of the system is susceptible to budgetary shortfalls at CIMH • A more strategic approach to data collection, archiving and quality assurance at CIMH is required and being pursued through a project funded the Caribbean Development Bank • “RESCUE AND DIGITIZATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL DATA PROJECT “ • Includes a component on Centralising data management in the Caribbean
Drought Early Warning in the Caribbean • Traditionally an analysis of rainfall totals and often reactive • Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CDPMN) launched under CARIWIN in January 2009 expected to be fully operational by the end of 2010 • Goal of CARIWIN is to increase the capacity of the Caribbean countries to deliver equitable and sustainable IWRM by • Implemented jointly by McGill University, CIMH and 3 partner countries (Grenada, Jamaica, Guyana)
CDPMN on two scales Caribbean Basin Monitoring Country-level Monitoring
Precipitation status monitored using a number of indices Final precipitation status determined, by consensus, by a network of persons from different sectors, institutions and communities embracing the diversity in definitions and impacts of drought Short term and seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide a projection of future drought (1 - 6 months possible)
Country Level MonitoringExamples Palmer Drought Severity Index, Aprl 1998 Time series of agricultural drought indicators from January 2005 to June 2007 Flow Measurements
Caribbean Water Monitor Tool created calculates SPI and Deviation from Normal for any station and time period in its data base. These are automatically graphed. SPI is also mapped using the open access GIS software Grass. Some tweeking of the software still to be done.
Prediction - Precipitation Outlook? Drought prediction and alerts based on the final Monitor Index and the PO. http://www.cimh.edu.bb/curprecip.htm February, 2012
PROCEDURE Utilise the outputs from the Global models Now also utilise Climate Prediction Tool (CPT-IRI) Up until 2012, produced every two months, now every month.
February to April, 2012 Discussion Rainfall in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana are expected to be above normal, with the highest certainty in the vicinity of the southern portion of the chain. Contrastingly, the northwestern Caribbean in the vicinity of northern Bahamas and northern Cuba is expected to be drier than normal. Rainfall in the area between these contrasting zones are expected to be normal to above normal (around about Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico) and normal to below normal (southern Cuba and southern Bahamas). Belize rainfall is expected to be near-normal for the period.
Temperature February to April, 2012: Cooler than normal 2 m air temperatures are expected in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles. Near-normal temperatures are expected in the remainder of the region, which include the eastern Caribbean, Guyana and The Bahamas. Near-normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are expected for the three month period.
Six month: February to July, 2012: Above normal rainfall conditions are expected in the eastern Caribbean and Guyana at least until May-June when the certainty decreases. By this time Guyana rainfall is expected to become closer to normal up to July. The sharp contrasts in rainfall anomalies between the northwest and southeast continues until about May. Most of the Greater Antilles and Belize are expected to experience near-normal rainfall during the six month period. The region of cooler than normal 2 m air temperatures expected in the Greater Antilles during the first half of the period diminishes in intensity and extent, with the entire Caribbean basin becoming near-normal by the end of the period. SSTs are expected to be near normal across the entire basin until the end of the period.
Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forum • FORUM launched in May 1998 for the development of seasonal climate products • Forum established to identify gaps in information and technical capability; facilitate research cooperation and data exchange, and improve coordination within the climate forecasting community • Output (seasonal rainfall outlook) for the region was left solely in the hands of CIMH • Re-establshment meeting held in June, 2010 at UWI in Barbados • Training for the Atlantic basin in Dakar Senegal • Follow up 26 February to 2 March 2012 – HERE WE ARE
In Pursuit of Other Regional Climate Products in thhe Near Future • Temperature monitoring and forecasting • Both rainfall and temperature to include probability of excedence
Support Disaster Risk insurance • Caribbean Flood Risk Insurance • Conducted the World Bank feasibility study that there was insufficient measured data to support the effort • Currently supporting the CCRIF development of a pricing index using numerical modelling approach • Facilities at CIMH will be used to host the flood insurance model Pre-development watertable for Barbados Regional flooding database established at CIMH
CAMI • Funded by the European Union’s ACP Science and Technology Programme • Partnership between CIMH (Applicant), WMO, CARDI, Ten Meteorological Services
Ten National Meteorological Services • Guyana • Trinidad and Tobago • Grenada • St. Vincent and the Grenadines • Barbados • St. Lucia • Dominica • Antigua and Barbuda • Jamaica • Belize
The overarching objective of the Action is to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information using an integrated and coordinated approach.
Specific Activities of the Action Rainy season prediction and interpretation through analysis of long-term climatic data and use of seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction models Use of rainy season prediction and near-real time weather information to support management decisions such as especially irrigation scheduling Working with the agricultural research and extension agencies in developing an effective pest and disease forecasting system
Specific Activities of the Action(Continued) Preparation and wide diffusion of a user-friendly weather and climate information newsletter for the farming community Organization of regular forums with the farming community and agricultural extension agencies to promote a better understanding of the applications of weather and climate information Building capacity of the Meteorological and Agricultural Services and research institutions
