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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Projections of SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 and VOC Emissions in East Asia up to 2030. Z. Klimont, J. Cofala, W. Schöpp, M. Amann (IIASA) D. Streets (Argonne Nat. Lab., USA) Y. Ichikawa, S. Fujita (CRIEPI, Japan).

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

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  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) • Projections of • SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC Emissions • in East Asia • up to 2030 Z. Klimont, J. Cofala, W. Schöpp, M. Amann (IIASA) D. Streets (Argonne Nat. Lab., USA) Y. Ichikawa, S. Fujita (CRIEPI, Japan)

  2. Japan - Prefectures aggregated into six regions China - Provinces and megacities (incl. Hong-Kong) Republic of Korea - provinces aggregated into four regions Taiwan, ROC; Mongolia; DPR of Korea - whole country Russia - six Southern Siberian provinces ‘Oblast’ Annual emissions historical years 1990 and 1995 projections for 2000, 2010 and 2030 Spatial and temporal resolution

  3. Spatial distribution of SO2 emissions(kt SO2 /grid) 1995 2030 (CLE)

  4. Activity rates: Traffic • Total fuel consumption based on the vehicle ownership and mileage forecasts (also verified against national and international (ERI-China, IEA) statistics) • Mode/fuel split derived from available statistical data and experts’ judgment • Newly developed forecast takes into account differences in future regional developments

  5. Emissions of NOx in East Asia(million tons NOx)

  6. Spatial distribution of NOx emissions(kt NOx /grid) 2030 (CLE) 1995

  7. Structure of VOC emissions in 1995for selected countries

  8. Projections of activity rates • Distribution, processing and combustion of fuels linked to energy projections in RAINS • Industry (chemical, food and drink, wood preservation, other industrial solvent use): Linked to changes in national and sectoral GDP • Domestic solvent use (incl. paint), dry cleaning: Related to population, GDP forecasts, changing consumption patterns • Industrial paint use: Linked to vehicle manufacturing and ownership forecasts, national and industrial GDP

  9. Emissions of VOC in East Asia(Mt VOC)

  10. Spatial distribution of VOC emissions (kt VOC /grid) 1995 2030(CLE)

  11. Ratio of NOx to VOC emissions in East Asia 1995 2030(CLE)

  12. Emissions of ammonia in East Asia(Mt NH3)

  13. Spatial distribution of NH3 emissions (kt NH3 /grid) 1995 2030

  14. Conclusions • Growth of SO2 and NOx emissions lower than previously estimated, due to • revised economic growth rates, • larger improvements in energy efficiency and • recent emission control legislation. • Lifestyle changes and rapid growth of processing industry might lead to significant increase in VOC • Present (and possibly future) ammonia emissions dominated by use of urea and ABC fertilizers in China

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