Presentation by Dr. Anil Kane President World Wind Energy Association Chairman Indian Wind Energy Association at

1. Presentation by Dr. Anil Kane President World Wind Energy Association Chairman Indian Wind Energy Association at The Global Renewable Energy Forum in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil during 18 to 21 May 2008 Indian Wind Energy Association

2. Trends in the Global Energy Scenario The fastest growing industry of the world today is the Wind Energy. It had grown at a compound rate of 24% for last 10 years. No industry in the history has grown at this rate. {Figure 1 & 1(a)}will show how the industry has grown. Various agencies have projected the demand by using various methods. Indian Wind Energy Association

3. Figure 1 Worldwide wind energy installation figures as at 31 December 2007 Indian Wind Energy Association

4. Figure 1 (a) Indian Wind Energy Association

5. Trends in the Global Energy Scenario World Wind Energy Association (WWEA) also has done some prediction (Figure 2.) In next 3 years, the installed capacity is going to be doubled. It will reach 160000 MW. Indian Wind Energy Association

6. Figure 2 Indian Wind Energy Association

7. Trends in the Global Energy Scenario The world has added from 1998 – 2007 more than 19000 MW (Figure 3). Indian Wind Energy Association

8. Figure 3 Indian Wind Energy Association

9. Trends in the Global Energy Scenario The world wide wind energy installation figures continent wise, as on 31st December 2007 in the form of pie chart (Figure 4). Indian Wind Energy Association

10. Figure 4 Worldwide wind energy installation figures per continent as at 31 December 2007: Indian Wind Energy Association

11. WIND CLASSES Depending upon the wind power density (W/sq. m) and the mean wind speed, the locations has been identified in 7 classes (Figure 5). Indian Wind Energy Association

12. Figure 5 Wind Class Indian Wind Energy Association

13. To know the potential of a particular site, meteorological data for a complete year regarding wind, i.e. the wind velocity, the direction of wind and the duration are depicted. If this graph is drawn, it looks like what is shown in (Figure 6), called Wind Rose. Indian Wind Energy Association

14. Figure 6 Wind Rose A wind rose diagram showing the relative frequency of directions from where the wind is coming from. • To show the information about the distributions of wind speeds, and the frequency of the varying wind directions, one may draw a so-called wind rose on the basis of meteorological observations of wind speeds and wind directions. • A wind rose gives you information on the relative wind speeds in different directions, i.e.each of the three sets of data (frequency, mean wind speed, and mean cube of wind speed) has been multiplied by a number which ensures that the largest wedge in the set exactly matches the radius of the outermost circle in the diagram. Indian Wind Energy Association

15. The awareness about the need of the accelerating electrical energy production by renewable source is picking up very fast. The terrible impacts of global warming have started clear signs of disastrous consequences. The rain patterns have started changing completely. The desert of Rajasthan in India has faced unprecedented flooding first time in the history. Glaciers in the Himalayan Mountains are receding at an alarming rate. The carbon dioxide concentration has increased beyond belief {Figure 7 & 7(a)}. The biggest culprits are the transportation and electricity generation industries. I recommend that everyone should watch AL Gore’s documentary movie. Indian Wind Energy Association

16. Figure 7 HIGHER ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST INCREASES CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS Indian Wind Energy Association

17. Figure 7 (a) FORECAST OF ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION Indian Wind Energy Association

18. Renewable electricity generation capacity reached an estimated 240 gigawatts (GW) worldwide in 2007, an increase of 50 percent over 2004. Renew- ables represent 5 percent of global power capacity and 3.4 percent of global power generation. (Figures exclude large hydropower, which itself was 15 percent of global power generation.) Indian Wind Energy Association

19. GLOBAL POWER SCENARIO • Global GDP set to grow at 3.4% annually till 2030 • Emerging economies like China and India projected • to grow by 8 – 10% • A fourth of the world’s population lives in darkness • - Increase in net electricity consumption by • 2015: 42% • - New generation capacity required by 2030: • 1,600 GW • (5,087 GW including replacement capacity) Source: International Energy Agency Indian Wind Energy Association

20. Developed economies take lion’s share in energy consumption Source : International Energy Agency Indian Wind Energy Association

21. Global Primary Energy Supply 2005 (Mtoe) Source : International Energy Agency Indian Wind Energy Association

22. Increasing Trend of Renewable Energy generation Source : International Energy Agency Indian Wind Energy Association

23. Key growth drivers for wind energy - I Concern Demand Catalysts Climate Change and Global Warming Aggressive global targets • Kyoto Protocol: CO2 emissions to reduce by 5.2% of 1990s levels by 2012 • EU declaration: 20% from RE by 2020 • US: 21 States with 10% to 20% RPS mandates • China RE law: 20% by 2020 from RE • India: 10 States with 2% to 10% RPO mandates Zero carbon solution Source : American Wind Energy Association BTM Consult ApS World Market Update 2006 Indian Wind Energy Association

24. Key growth drivers for wind energy - II Concern Demand Catalysts Energy Security Local availability • Hedge against geopolitical risks - local and secured supply • No risk of fuel price volatility • Socially, ecologically and economically sustainable growth Source : American Wind Energy Association BTM Consult ApS World Market Update 2006 Indian Wind Energy Association

25. Key growth drivers for wind energy - III Concern Demand Catalysts Increased Electricity Demand • Energy - key to economic growth in developing countries (India, China etc. require all sources quickly to bridge gap) • Wind’s global electricity generation contribution expected to increase from 0.82% in 2006 to 4.04% in 2016 Abundant resource Source : American Wind Energy Association BTM Consult ApS World Market Update 2006 Indian Wind Energy Association

26. Key growth drivers for wind energy - IV Concern Demand Catalysts Cost competitiveness and hedging • Improvement in yields (cost/ kWh) • Cost / kWh of generation: US$ 0.03 - 0.06 • Wind Energy directly competing with conventional power • Frozen lifecycle power cost for utilities Zero fuel cost Source : American Wind Energy Association BTM Consult ApS World Market Update 2006 Indian Wind Energy Association

27. What is the necessity of securing the Energy? Our energy needs are growing very rapidly. The domestic supply is not able to match • Fossil fuel is becoming scarce • The hydro situation is not rosy either • The nuclear is riddled with controversy globally • Climate change is pressing for clean energy • The oil prices are hitting the roof USD 112/barrel Indian Wind Energy Association

28. RE is no longer a fringe player • Global RE market was valued more than US $25 billion in the 2007 calendar year • Approximately 45% attributed to wind energy alone • Several estimates put the Global RE market to grow to US$100 billion by the year 2010 • Growth in the last 5 years was about 30%, the same is likely to continue in the coming years • With the result policies and regulatory frame work have started becoming conducive to the RE Indian Wind Energy Association

29. CURRENT OPERATING COSTS Though Wind Energy is a capital intensive proposition, you will see from the figure (Figure 8) the operating cost of wind is lower than any other method. Sometimes people think that nuclear is cheaper, but that is not the case. On the contrary, these figures regarding the operating cost of nuclear system will be much higher than shown here since the price of uranium also has skyrocketed like the oil price. While the only steady operating cost is wind since there is no raw material cost. Indian Wind Energy Association

30. Figure 8 Indian Wind Energy Association

31. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has predicted that the world electrical energy requirement will triple by 2050. The current electrical energy installation is around 3.6 million MW, which will become about 11 million MW. It is unthinkable to imagine this much quantity being produced by fossil fuel. What will happen to the green house gases (including carbon dioxide concentration) is no more a gas work. It will make the world unsuitable for life. We can keep these figures lower only by adopting 18th century life style. But this is not possible. If China and India start consuming per capita electrical energy, as much as what the US consumes, the figures are unbelievably large. Indian Wind Energy Association

32. To meet this enormous electricity demands, there are only three ways of producing electrical energy. • By burning fossil fuels, i.e. coal, oil and gas. • By carrying out nuclear fission by using uranium. • By renewable energy. • The consequences of fossil fuel burning are very well • known and do not need any further elaboration. The • opposition to nuclear energy worldwide is understandable • and knowing the risks, it is desirable to curb nuclear • production to the extent possible. The atomic reactor costs • far more money to dismantle it than constructing it. The • Chernobyl and Three Miles Island incidents are the eye • opener. Indian Wind Energy Association

33. Lots of additional safety measures and precautions as well as improvements in radiation shielding technologies have made nuclear plant safer compared to the earlier generation plants. But the probability of misusing the atomic energy to produce bombs is still lurking. Still we have not found a solution to stop this. However, as long as the nuclear plant is in operation, it is far more safer and acceptable than burning fossil fuel. Between the two evils, the fossil fuel burning is a greater evil and we have to choose a lesser evil in case we have to choose one. Is the renewable energy capable to meet this incredible demand of electrical energy? Indian Wind Energy Association

34. Intensive researches are going on in photovoltaic and its related fields. The prices of PV cells are slowly dropping, but still they are quite far from commercial viability without governmental supports. It may become possible to economically produce large scale electrical energy by PV within 45 years. The tidal energy has limitations. You need a particular geographic condition to have a tidal power plant. The only sizeable power plant working in France is at a place called La Rance. It produces 240 MW for more than 40 years very successfully. It is estimated that around 200,000 MW can be generated from various places known to have a conducive situation for tidal energy production around the world. The Government of Gujarat in India has embarked upon an ambitious project called “Kalpasar” where 5800 MW of electrical energy will be produced by tidal power. Indian Wind Energy Association

35. Hydro power also has large potential but it required long gestation period, besides inundation, rehabilitation and submerging of land create problems. It is very difficult to overcome these socio-economic situations. Even if China builds one Three Gorges Dam every year, it will not be able to meet its growing demand for electricity. This leaves us to concentrate on wind energy. The only renewable source of energy which is commercially viable on large scale and in adequate quantities is the wind sector. A team of Stanford University in California has carried out an exhaustive study and has reached to a conclusion based upon scientifically recorded and reliable source data (Figure 9 -14). Indian Wind Energy Association

36. Figure 9 EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWER Europe Source : Stanford Edu. - Cristina L. Archer Indian Wind Energy Association

37. EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWERNorth America Figure 10 Source : Stanford Edu. - Cristina L. Archer Indian Wind Energy Association

38. Figure 11 EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWER Asia Source : Stanford Edu. - Cristina L. Archer Indian Wind Energy Association

39. Figure 12 EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWER Africa Indian Wind Energy Association

40. Figure 13 EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWERAustralia Indian Wind Energy Association

41. Figure 14 EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWERSouth America Indian Wind Energy Association

42. The study concludes that if only the areas having an annual average wind velocity grater than 7 m/se are taken into account, wind worldwide could produce approximately 72 trillion watt hours of electrical energy per year. This is equal to about 54,000 million tones of oil equivalent. Even if only 20% of this power is captured, it is more than the total energy requirement of the entire world for all purposes. If we consider just the electrical energy requirement of the entire world, this potential is seven times the world needs, which is 1.6 to 1.8 Trillion Watt hours. Indian Wind Energy Association

43. If we take into consideration areas which have got lesser than 7m/sec wind velocity, and the offshore potential, the figure will be astronomical. Taking into consideration the advances in the design of wind generators, viz. the aerodynamics of the blade, the material of construction of the blade, the design of the generators, the art of micrositing as well as the advances in electronics and electrical technology of control have given us confidence that very large machines, (Figure 15, 16 & 17) can easily be manufactured very efficiently, economically and in mass. Indian Wind Energy Association

44. Figure 15 Indian Wind Energy Association

45. Figure 16 Indian Wind Energy Association

46. Figure 17 Indian Wind Energy Association

47. The human kind has no other alternative but to fully concentrate on the wind sector. The hurdles in the wind sector are minor and the objections raised by some activists are ridiculous in the real sense of the term. e.g.: It is claimed that some birds get killed by hitting the wind turbine blades. These are very freak cases and 1000 time more number of birds are getting killed by the aviation industry and we can do nothing about it. While designing the wind farms, some particular locations, where the migratory bird activities are more can be avoided and this minuscule figure can further be reduced. There are some activists who also have been raising the bogey of esthetics and the appearance of the wind machines. These are also unnecessary and the publicity mongers are only making this noise. It is true that though the reliability of wind power has improved, problem do remain with consistent supply. This also can become non issue when very large and scattered locations become operational. Indian Wind Energy Association

48. If we examine the figures 9 - 14, we can see that a very large area falls under low velocity zone and tremendous amount of research is going on to effectively tap the wind energy from this zones in a commercially viable manner. Some of the futuristic wind turbines suitable for lower wind velocities are shown here to indicate novel designs to follow in a short while (Figures 18-28). Indian Wind Energy Association

49. Futuristic Designs Figure 18 Indian Wind Energy Association

50. Figure 19 Indian Wind Energy Association