Mike Bell (Met Office, UK) Pierre-Yves Le Traon (Ifremer, France)

1. GODAE Status Mike Bell (Met Office, UK) Pierre-Yves Le Traon (Ifremer, France) Co-chairs of the International GODAE Steering Team (IGST)

2. Content • The mission & vision for GODAE • Achievements and Successes • Priorities for GODAE • Recent European developments (Euro-Argo, GMES – My Ocean)

3. The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment The Mission for GODAE A practical demonstration of the feasibility & utility of high-resolution, global analyses & short-range forecasts of 3D temperatures, salinities and currents Timetable 1997 – 1999 Conceptual development 2000 – 2003 Prototype development 2004 – 2008 Operational demonstration & consolidation

4. Main GODAE activities (2002-2007) • Develop/consolidate national systems : • From prototype and regional systems to global and pre-operational systems • High resolution for mesoscale and coastal applications (e.g. Mercator, NCOF, Mersea) • Low resolution + advanced data assimilation for climate research (e.g. ECCO) • Develop links with users and applications • Development of data and product serving capability • Standardisation, harmonization : format, grid, distribution (opendap/LAS) • Product assessment and intercomparison • Define/agree/implement “common internal metrics” • Continue development of ocean state estimation methodologies and modelling • Internationalcollaboration • Pilot projects • Argo, GHRSST-PP International GODAE Steering Team (IGST) (11 meetings) GODAE conference (Biarritz, 2002), User Symposium (St Petersburg, 2004), GODAE Summer School (2004), Symposium/workshop (Beijing, 2006)

5. Achievements and Successes • Implementation of observing and data processing system • Argo, altimetry, GHRSST-PP, in-situ • Implementation of global modelling and data assimilation capabilities • Implementation of data and product serving capabilities and standardization • Demonstrations of feasibility and utility • - see examples • Scientific advances • - Modelling, data assimilation, scientific validation

6. The pre-GODAE in-situ ocean observing system was clearly inadequate for the global scope of GODAE => Development of Argo : a joint GODAE/CLIVAR pilot project. Outstanding progress so far thanks to international cooperation. A global array (3000 floats) is targeted in mid 2007 An efficient data management system is in place. http://argo.jcommops.org

7. Impact of Argo data in the MERCATOR multivariate data assimilation system (Benkiran et al., 2005) • Assimilation of in-situ and satellite data vs assimilation of satellite data (SLA and SST) only. • Statistics for year 2003 Rms of differences between in-situ data and model forecast (7-day) Reference Without T/S assimilation

8. Implementation: Forecast systems • National systems involving research & operational institutes • BlueLink – Australia • Canadian consortium • NLOM and NCOM - USA • HYCOM consortium - USA • Move & COMPASS-K systems – Japan • MERCATOR – France • MFS - Italy • NCOF consortium (FOAM) – UK • TOPAZ - Norway • European coordination • MERSEA consortium

9. Iran Gulf of Oman Arabian Peninsula Feasibility: Forecasting of ocean mesoscale using altimeter data SeaWiFS ocean color 1/32° NLOM sea surface height (SSH) and surface currents 26°N 26°N 24°N 24°N Altimeter data assimilated No assimilation 22°N 22°N 20°N 20°N 18°N 18°N 16°N 16°N 56°E 56°E 56°E 58°E 60°E 62°E 58°E 60°E 62°E 58°E 60°E 62°E (in mg/m3) (in cm) 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.5 4.0 Composite of most recent data Oct 2-Oct 6 2002, mostly Oct 6 Oct 6 2002 Oct 6 2002 http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlomShriver et al. (JMS, 2007)

10. Interior flow Boundary flow Feasibility : improved understanding of the ocean - Tropical-subtropical Exchange Pycnocline transport at Pacific 10N: showing counteracting effect of boundary & interior flow in regulating tropical heat content on interannual-decadal time scales (Lee & Fukumori 2003, J. Climate) This causes anomalous off-equatorial circulation, with opposite boundary & interior flows Wind stress curl anomaly develops off the equator during El Nino

11. Utility: Forecast of Kuroshio Large Meander • In 2004 the Japan Meterological Agency made a 60-day forecast • of the largest Kuroshio Large Meander for 10 years • A large meander induces strong upwelling with impacts on fisheries and • the local climate • The forecast was front-page news and praised by fisheries agencies

12. Model improvements: Sensitivity Analysis for Re-evaluation of Ocean Observing System Integrating the singular vector with eddy-resolving adjoint model • The Japan Meterological Agency (Meteorological Research Institute) • have continued a series of OSE/OSSE sensitivity experiments of singular vector • analysis for examining the cause/sensitivity of the Kuroshio Large Meander and • examining the ocean observing system. • The singular vector shows a cause or sensitivity for the meander. The information • improves initial condition and forecasting, and gives a candidate of target • observation Result: Kuroshio Large Meander Cause or Sensitivity Color: 1200m Temperature Right singular vector Black line: 0.2m contour of the SSH in background state (Fujii et al., 2007)

13. Utility: Simulation of lobster larvae tracks Useful information for fisheries managers on inter-regional dependence of fish stocks The red box means “larval tracksstophere” Larvae come from both sides The green box means “larval tracksstarthere” Larvae only go east Credit to david.griffin@csiro.au

14. Other examples of feasibility and utility • Surface drift and dispersion predictions for marine safety and counter-pollution • Intensification of hurricanes over warm pools • Current profile forecasts for off-shore industry • Thermal structure forecasts for Defence • Research

15. Working with intermediate usersMarine Pollution (the Prestige case) A MERSEA Strand 1 experiment 3D Ocean Analysis N. .Atlantic Monitoring and Forecasting systems Oil Spill Drift Oil Spill Operational Systems OBS Météo-France (France) FOAM (UK) (12 km resol) Met.No (Norway) MERCATOR (F) (6 km resol) Courtesy of B.Hackett

16. Model improvements: Intercomparisons and metrics System intercomparisons are important: - to speed up improvement of systems - to develop international standards WOCE Denmark Strait Section Potential Temperature System 1 System 2 System 3 System 4 Buffer Zone North of Denmark Strait With Relaxation to Climatology

17. MOORINGS XBT lines SECTIONS and TRANSPORT WOCE CLIVAR CANADIAN SECTIONS SOOP GLOSS TAO PIRATA MFS MODEL T XBT Observed T MODEL/WOCE-CLIVAR SECTION VOLUME TRANSPORT across FLORIDA Strait : MODEL/CABLE Comparison MODEL/OBS comparison Model/Tide gauge SLA time series comparison METRICS in GODAE (from MERSEA work) Class 1 (regional vertical/horizontal grids) Class 2 (moorings, gliders, XBT, WOCE/CLIVAR lines..) Class 3 (volume transport…) Class 4 (forecasting skills in observation and model space)

18. GODAE Priorities 2006-2008 GODAE demonstration • Establish and consolidate base-line systems (GODAE standards). • Demonstrations of Impact/Utility = main focus of GODAE. Develop a series of « good » examples of GODAE successes (from observations to users). GODAE products • Error characterisation: consolidate work on metrics and intercomparison (“GODAE label”). Make sure a minimum set is internationally implemented. • Develop product standardization. Ensure interoperability between systems. Observing Systems • Use the experiment for an improved design of the observing system. Provide clear demonstration of added value and impact on applications. Promote results (space agencies, GMES, GEOSS). Transition : from demonstration to operational systems • Work with JCOMM on the transition • Promote examples of transition to operational systems for the different nations • Contribute to the definition of operational oceanography architecture New projects/initiatives : coastal and ecosystems • Develop links with IMBER (ecosystems from low to high trophic levels). • Initiate a specific coastal project (downscaling).

19. Advance: The GODAE Coastal and Shelf Seas Working group (CSSWG) • The usefulness of GODAE systems to coastal and shelf seas forecasting will be one of the measures of the success of GODAE. • The mission of the GODAE CSSWG is to define, monitor and promote actions, within GODAE, aimed at the assessment and demonstration of the value of GODAE results for regional, coastal and shelf seas models and forecasting systems • Position paper "Towards the assessment and demonstration of the value of GODAE results for coastal and shelf seas models and forecasting systems" P. De Mey, ed., 74pp. • 2007 GODAE Coastal workshop, Liverpool, UK, 10-11 October:http://cobs.pol.ac.uk/cobs/CSSWG • 2008 GODAE Coastal workshop, planned in Newfoundland, Canada

20. The GODAE – IMBER initiative (Ecosystem modelling) • To facilitate dialogue between those developing new ecosystem models and the developers of the operational systems. • To promote mutual understanding of the requirements of the two communities. • Areas of importance • Ecosystem modelling & data assimilation - Schemes for assimilation of biogeochemical data are under development - Current assimilation schemes degrade the biogeochemistry - Overall high horizontal and vertical resolution models for the upper ocean are needed. - Advanced schemes for a finer vertical structure are a key issue for nutrient transport. • Interaction with coastal and shelf seas systems • Support for B-Argo (see friends of Oxygen on Argo) • Reanalysis First GODAE-IMBER Meeting Paris, France, 12-13 June 2007 Establishment of GODAE-IMBER Working Group desired to coordinate modelling and observations

21. GODAE in 2007/2008 • Four workshops in 2007 (preparation of final conference) • IMBER/GODAE – Summer 2007 • OSSEs/OSEs – Observing system (GODAE/CLIVAR) in Fall 2007 • GODAE Coastal workshop in Fall 2007 and mid 2008 • IGST meeting, Canada, August 2007 and Spring 2008 • Final conference in Fall 2008 jointly held with OSTM meeting • Special journal issue on GODAE achievements • 2nd summer school in Spring 2009

22. Final GODAE conference in Fall 2008 jointly held with OSTM meeting (to be discussed at next IGST meeting) • Review of achievements (data systems, modelling/assimilation systems, data and product serving, science issues, applications and users) • Observing systems : review, utility and impact, refined requirements, main issues, … • The future : GODAE legacy, transition towards operational systems, role of JCOMM, research coordination… • Probably over three days • Issues on observing systems could/should be jointly held with a St Raphael follow on conference (could the two/three events be linked over one week ?)

23. Summary • The essence of GODAE is a practical • demonstration of feasibility and utility • There have been major achievements in • implementing observing and forecasting • systems, establishing collaborations and • demonstrations of feasibility • We are adapting our targets for and approach to • demonstrations of utility learning from successes • Sustainability of the observing system - remains a most critical issue

24. Future European initiatives • Euro-Argo • GMES Marine Core Services (My Ocean)

25. EURO-ARGO • Context: ESFRI (European Strategy Forumon Research Infrastructures) (European Commission). Roadmap for new large research infrastructures of pan-European interest. • Euro-Argo selected (35 projects – 7 environment sciences) • Proposal : Europe establishes an infrastructure for ¼, i.e. 800 floats in operation • Requirement : 250 floats per year including regional enhancements (Nordic, Mediterranean and Black seas)

26. Preparatory Phase Proposal Main expected outcomes : • Agreement for long term (10-20 years) operation of Euro-Argo (financial, legal, governance, organisation, technical). Member States (ministerial level) • Agreement with EC (GMES, GEO, DG Research) for additional long term EC funding • Main technical and organizational issues to be solved • Links with international structure

27. GMES Marine Core Serviceand European operational oceanography 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 • Challenge (1): run the European core service on an operational basis • Challenge (2) : link definitively with the European and member states main services and applications • Challenge (3) : organise an a sustainable basis the link between this operational European service and the existing research networks ... GMES Phases Operational Implementation Initial Demonstrate the European maturity of oceanography Build the GMES marine system, integrating the “core” capacities (MERSEA) Run the GMES marine core service, on an operational basis

28. Provider Provider MY-OCEAN European Core Service END - USERS OBSERVATIONS Provider Provider MY OCEAN : a 3-year project to set up and operate the GMES Marine Core Service The down stream Cut off The upstream cut-off upstream to our service ... is done (duty) by an observation agency or center (raw data) Example : Eumetsat SAF or the ESA PAC downstream to our service: ... is done (duty), or will be better done (skill) by a specialized agency, a European agency or a national center ; usually already in place Example : COASTAL SYSTEMS Data, Model European added-value

29. MyOcean will • “deliver regular and systematic reference information (processed data, elaborated products) on the state of the oceans and regional seas: • at the resolution required by intermediate users & downstream service providers, of known quality and accuracy, • for the global and European regional seas.” • Physical state of the ocean, and primary ecosystem • For global ocean, and main European basins and seas • Large and basin scale ; mesoscale physics • Hindcast, Nowcast, Forecast • Data, Assimilation and Models

30. Modelling and Forecasting centers and regions Arctic GOOS • 1. Global • 2. Arctic • 3. Baltic • 4. NWS • 5. IBI • 6. Med Sea • 7 Black Sea 2 NOOS 4 3 BOOS 1 GOOS/ GODAE 1 7 1 6 Black Sea GOOS 5 6 IBI-ROOS MOON & MedGOOS

31. Example

33. GODAE-OOPC OSSE/OSE meeting Paris, November 5-7 2007 • The GODAE initial requirements and a strategy for a global observing system have been described in the OceanObs99 conference book. By the end of GODAE, more specific requirements should be made on the basis of improved understanding of data utility and a series of recommendations for an improved design of the global ocean observing system should be delivered. • Global ocean state estimation systems are a powerful means to assess the impact of the observing system, to identify gaps and to improve the efficiency/effectiveness of the observing system. OSEs (Observing System Evaluations) or OSSEs (Observing System Simulation Experiments) are, in particular, useful tools. Impact on applications is another issue and should also guide OSEs/OSSEs studies (e.g.optimizing surface current forecasts for marine safety applications). • => hold a GODAE/OOPC workshop on OSEs/OSSEs in fall 2007 to improve the collaboration and sharing of OSSEs and OSEs results between GODAE, OOPC, CLIVAR and other groups.

34. Workshop objectives Review work done on OSEs and OSSEs over the past years Identify robust and common features Provide good examples of the contribution of observing system Provide preliminary recommendations on the observing system design. What needs to be improved ? Specific topics should include: Low/high resolution altimetry Argo Tropical moorings High resolution SSTs New observing techniques (e.g. salinity, gliders) Scatterometry Prior to the workshop, specific impact studies should be defined and carried out by the different groups so that results can be compared and discussed at the workshop. Outcomes of the workshop : a first list of recommendations for the global observing system, a work plan to prepare the GODAE recommendations and (mainly) to make a better case to for the global ocean observing system (final GODAE conference)