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Mah-Hui LIM Public Dialogue with the Chief Minister of Penang March 10, 2013

Are We Moving Forward to 21 st Century or Moving Backward to 20 th Century in Our Transportation Policies. Mah-Hui LIM Public Dialogue with the Chief Minister of Penang March 10, 2013. 1. OBJECTIVES –Address 5 Basic Questions.

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Mah-Hui LIM Public Dialogue with the Chief Minister of Penang March 10, 2013

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  1. Are We Moving Forward to 21st Century or Moving Backward to 20th Century in Our Transportation Policies • Mah-Hui LIM Public Dialogue with the Chief Minister of Penang • March 10, 2013 1

  2. OBJECTIVES –Address 5 Basic Questions Should Important Public Policies be based on Evidence & Analysis? Will Simply Building More Roads Solve Traffic Problems? Are We Given an Alternative? Are We Moving to 21st Century or Moving Back to 20th Century? Does Creating Dependency on Private Transport Help the Poor? 2

  3. I - Master Transport Plan (MTP) • MTP was proposed by the Penang Transport Council in 2009 & in 2011 the Pg state govt agreed to fund it (with Rgt1.2m contribution from Northern Corridor)Total cost Rm3.2m. • We applaud the state for this because it means state policies sh be based on evidence & scientific analysis, not personal preference 3

  4. Questions On the Process of Making Public Policy • The formal agreement for the MTP was signed in mid 2011. In the same week, the CM announced the signing of MOU for 4 major road projects with Chinese companies • Does it make sense to have the solution before the study has started? • Does this not ignore evidenced based analysis and policies? 4

  5. Questions? • Concurrent negotiations for projects started in 2011 held while the MTP study was underway • Why were awards for the projects given out even before the MTP is finalized and made public? • Doesn’t this pre-empt the significance of the report’s recommendations? 5

  6. Questions • MTP calls for a balanced approach to solving transport problems • It suggested short & medium term measures & recommended major road construction as longer term solutions commencing after • Are we putting the cart before the horse by reversing the priorities suggested in the MTP? 6

  7. Slides on ST & MT • Institutional capacity building – more engineers, better traffic modeling capability, TIA team etc • Result of public response – 80% in favor of balanced approach rather than car dominated approach • Only 7% of cross-channel traffic during peak hours 7

  8. Other Questions • Have there been independent feasibility studies, cost benefit analysis, traffic demand simulation etc done for ALL the 4 projects before they were tendered? • Isn’t it standard best practice to conduct such studies BEFORE tender and award, rather than after? 8

  9. Other Questions • If a tunnel is necessary, are there dedicated bus lanes, rail link? • A rail tunnel is more important given the completion of the fast train to Butterworth and the future high speed rail linking Singapore to KL to Penang 9

  10. II – Will Simply Expanding Roadwork Solve Transport Problem? • First let me state categorically, I am NOT against improving road networks • Second, I am not suggesting that the Pg state govt do nothing • I recognize the need to build a road to link the northern and southern parts of Penang island without having to go through the city. This will decongest traffic in the city 10

  11. My Point Is: • Focusing on building roads without addressing the demand for road use will NOT solve the problem • In fact, it might worsen the problem • There are 2 sides to the equation of traffic problem • the Supply Side & the Demand Side 11

  12. Demand & Supply Sides of Transport Equation • Supply Side refers to supplying more road networks • Demand Side refers to the demand for the use of these road network • It has been shown that simply building more roads (supply side) creates the demand for using them thereby bringing you back to square one 12

  13. Demand Outstrips Supply • Vehicles are growing at 10% per year. At this rate Penang will have another 1 m cars in 10 yrs. There is simply no way to supply enough roads to cater to this increase in road usage demand • Hence we must tackle the demand side too 13

  14. Do We Have Evidence ? • Have all the highways, tunnels & flyovers in KL and Bangkok solved traffic congestion? • If not, why are we going down that path? • Is our public policy evidenced based on preference based? 14

  15. Hence the Need to Address the Demand Side • This means regulating the use of roads through various measures • Increase parking charges • Vary parking charges according to areas and time • Introducing road usage during peak hours • But why is the state unwilling to do this? 15

  16. Present State Policy of Free & Subsidized Bus Rides • Why has it met with limited success ? • Because it doesn’t address the other side of the equation, i.e. creating disincentives to use private vehicles • It will have more success if it is combined with the following measures 16

  17. Things the State & Local Governments Can Do • Creating bus lanes so that it’s faster for commuters to get to work on bus than on private cars • This can be limited to PEAK HOURS • For those who still want the comfort of driving to work during peak hours, they should pay for the luxury • The proceeds sh be used to subsidize public transport 17

  18. State Should Provide Alternative for Public to Choose • Presently there are 2 major arteries well served by Rapid with buses running every 10 minutes or less – Ayer Hitam & Tanjong Tokong roads • If we create bus lanes during peak hours; increase bus frequencies to 5 minutes; subsidize bus fares, then commuters can get to work cheaper & faster 18

  19. Public Transport Alternative • Commuters have little basis not to use public transport & no basis to complain about paying higher charges if they continue to choose using private cars • I propose the state put more time, thinking & resources to offer this alternative to Penang citizens? • Start with trial on Burmah Road 19

  20. III - Moving Forward to 21st Century or Backward to 20th Century • Creating dependence on private cars has 2 major negative effects • Increases carbon emission & impact on global warming (This works against objective of cleaner & greener Penang) • Increases financial burden of middle and lower classes 20

  21. Recent Studies, including NASA’s show that • Road traffic contributes the most to global warming, followed by aviation sector 21

  22. Biggest Global Challenge in 21st Century- Climate Change 22

  23. Global Warming > Disappearing Glaciers 1980 - 2005 23

  24. Burden of Private Transport on Lower Middle Class & the Poor • Average household with RM3000 income per month spends at least (RM500)1/5th on maintaining car • Lowering price of cars, tolls, petrol does not solve the problem • Offering good & affordable public transport so they don’t have to buy cars is more effective • This increases his disposable income 24

  25. Cities with Forward Looking Transport Strategy • Seoul – tore down major highway & restored canal • Stuggart – • Many European cities – purposely reduce parking space in cities, make it inconvenient to use private cars • Curitiba’s mayor in 5 years transformed the transport landscape 25

  26. Successes of Curitiba’s Transport Model • He prioritised bus lanes & bicycle lanes over road building • He said that no where does he find that provision of parking space is part of human rights • He invested in upgrading bicycle lanes so that its safe & fashionable to ride 26

  27. Other Cities’ Forward Looking Transport Policies • Copenhagen gives priority to bicycles- 37% commuters ride to work. Target is to reach 50% by 2015; 58% use a bicycle daily; only 29% household own a car • Mayor of London rides to work • Mayor of New York takes bus & subway to work 27

  28. Why Don’t Pakatan Leaders Lead the Way? • I suggest that our political leaders set an example by cycling or taking bus at least some of the time • This will show that its cool to bicycle not just for recreation but for work • Will have significant demonstration effect 28

  29. Back to the Tunnel – Tunnel Fires - Has State Exco Considered the Risks of Tunnels & Publicised Them ? • 1982 Caldecott Tunnel Calif -7 died • 1999-Mt Blanc Tunnel – 35 died • 2001-Gotthard Tunnel, Switz-20 died • 2012-Japan – 9 died • Malaysia - poor regulation of not road worthy vehicles on the road • Frequency of cars catching fire 29

  30. Japan Tunnel Fire – Dec 2, 2012 30

  31. Tunnels • Likelihood of such incidents happening is much higher than in Switzerland and Japan have strict laws & enforcement regimes, yet such terrifying accidents happen. • What about Malaysia? Bolih juga. 31

  32. Pakatan Should Lead With New Vision & Courage • CM enjoys enormous popularity – big asset for leading real change • Majority of people still trapped old way of looking at transport as provision of more roads • Golden opportunity to use popularity to offer new vision & ideas, to educate people through major speeches & lead by example 32

  33. THANK YOU 33

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