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“The International Catastrophic Risks Forum" Bucharest, October 1st 2007

Risk mapping and zoning approaches in European insurance markets. Roland NUSSBAUM Managing Director of Mission Risques Naturels (FR) Chairman of Natural Hazards Working Group Comité Européen des Assurances (CEA). “The International Catastrophic Risks Forum" Bucharest, October 1st 2007.

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“The International Catastrophic Risks Forum" Bucharest, October 1st 2007

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  1. Risk mapping and zoning approaches in European insurance markets Roland NUSSBAUM Managing Director of Mission Risques Naturels (FR) Chairman of Natural Hazards Working Group Comité Européen des Assurances (CEA) “The International Catastrophic Risks Forum" Bucharest, October 1st 2007

  2. Risk mapping and zoning approaches in EuropeOUTLINE • Typology of CAT extended coverages in European insurance markets • Introducing CEA relevant activities • User needs, data and scope of developments • Flood and seismic hazard zoning tools • Conclusions • Annexes

  3. Typology of NATCAT extended coveragesin European insurance markets Optionnal Compulsory Insurers are not risk carryer * New / modified extended coverages: Recently put in place In project……… Color intensity according to market penetration of extended cover: FLOODS and/or SEISMIC RISK + * * * + * * + * * * * * +

  4. COMITE EUROPEEN DES ASSURANCES • Federation of European insurance associations www.cea.assur.org • Property Committee • Natural Hazards Working Group (NH WG)

  5. Cooperations & experience sharing between CEA markets • Mutual information on market situation and developments • Hazard mapping and zoning • Insurers and flood risk prevention • Catastrophic claims management • Climate change : report July 2007 • * Downloadable on CEA’s website: www.cea.assur.org

  6. Users’ needs, data, services and scope of developments French experience Conducted by MRN

  7. Categories of needs within insurance Evolution in France Job Purpose Trends Type of service Underwriting risk survey Prevention incentive Risk exposure eval° Evolution of ins. regime Site by site scoring Claims consistency control Claims management CATNAT Rapid evaluation of total claim Crisis management Accumulation modelling Reinsurance cessions Risk accumulations Reinsurance underwrinting Régime CATNAT Offre outils modélisation Solvency II Statistics Acturarial sc. Risk management Portfolio exposure eval° and monitoring Asset allocation Solvency II CATNAT Regime Real estate assets porforlio managment Prevention and crisis preparedness within insurance company • Safety managmeent plan • Susbtainablity reportng duties for companies Site by site scoring modelling 7

  8. Data, services and scope of use Exposure Assessment Modelling Scoring Site by site categories of data Service / scope Hazards Territories General interest Public policy Prevention policy Referentials ? Vulnerability Competition Private market players Insurance portfolios Private assets Loss records Underwriting

  9. 2. Flood and seismic hazard zoning tools General comments

  10. Flood and seismic hazard exposure

  11. Floods, storms and earthquakesAnnual probability of exceedance = f(losses) Sources: DFNK, GFZ

  12. 2.1. Flood zoning tools used by european insurance markets A CEA Contribution to EXCIMAP Atlas and guide of good practices to be published by EU Commission DG ENV See Annex to CEA report “Reducing the Social and Economic Impact of Climate Change and Natural Catastrophes Insurance Solutions and Public-Private Partnerships” July 2007

  13. Typology & evolution of flood hazard zoning tools on European insurance markets Market players with data modeling tools from agencies PPPs Hazard data Proprietary developments at market initiative Directives : FLOODS INSPIRE market / project (USA) UK NFIP / FIRM ? DE : ZURS 1 & 2 UK : Informal agreement ABI(+CML) - EA CZ : FRAT ? 2004-6 AU : HORA AU : PPP VVO – LM Public site BE 2006 ? 2007 IT : SIGRA FR : MRN 2004-7Service Intranet ? PL : project T

  14. 2.2. Seismic risk in European insurance markets First results of enquiries and best practices exchanges between CEA Member Associations

  15. Seismic riskAvailability of hazard maps ?

  16. seismic hazard information availability Source : B. Ranguelov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences , at SENS’2006, June 2006

  17. Exposed properties per seismic zone II SEISMIC ZONES FROM 2004 (3 ZONES) G R E E C E

  18. Seismic riskAvailability of PML scenarios

  19. 3. Conclusions • Huge technical developments by insurance markets, based on GIS technologies and modelling, to improve cat insurability • Positive effect of best practices exchange between insurance markets: role of CEA – invitation to join CEA Natural Hazard Working Group activities • EU policies: INFSO / INSPIRE, R&D / FP7, REGIO, ENV / Climate change adaptation strategy, flood action programme / Flood directive…) favour the trends towards PPPs for: • data production, sharing and dissemination, • joining efforts in exposure assessments • Deterministic • Probabilistic • promoting insurance services as economic incentives for risk prevention

  20. Thank you for your attention www.cea.assur.org www.mrn-gpsa.org roland.nussbaum@mrn.gpsa.fr

  21. Risk mapping and zoning approaches in Europe Annexesto the presentationAdditionnal maps and illustrative examples

  22. Plans de prévention des risques (PPR) Developing a professional tool for scoring indicators about their adequacy and efficiency Sources : DDE 65 et 94

  23. Intranet geoservices infrastructure offered by MRN to French insurance companies Through a unique access point, insurance companies have two categories of services :- online consultation of a site exposure and report edition - downloading of numeric data sets on natural hazard zonations 23

  24. The MRN geoservices intranet platform This example shows a consultation of the information available for flood and subsidence hazards at the following adress: 1 rue Bannier 45 000 Orléans 24

  25. Multi-sites « scoring » for an insurance portfoliothe various addresses have been geocoded, these insured sites are then « qualified » with respect to hazard, according to i available data and considering their credibility

  26. Modelling of an EQ on the French Riviera • synthetic event • Magnitude 6.1 • Epicenter:in the sea, near Menton city

  27. Modelling of an EQ on the French Riviera Asset Module • VULNERABILITY CLASSES OF EXPOSED MUNICIPALITIES IN PACA REGION 27

  28. Modelling of an EQ on the French Riviera Damage estimate Module Economic loss estimate = % damage X nb dwellings X surfaces X replacing cost/ m2 • Estimate of the amount of damage to dwellings • par municipality About 47 000 dwellings 9 G€ of insured dammage 28

  29. Best practice exchange on flood zoning data by insurance markets B GK1 GK4 GK2 GK3 DE CZ Insurance market proprietary zoning tools Public zoning tools used by insurance markets http://geoinfo.lfrz.at/website/egisroot/services/ehora2/viewer.htm AU FR

  30. UK situation: EA agreement with ABI

  31. ITALY : SIGRA projectintegrating site by site and portfolio tools

  32. Qualitative assessment of risk awareness level High Low

  33. EQ extended coverage: compulsory or not?

  34. Market penetration of EQ coverage

  35. Form of EQ insurance market organisation

  36. EQ prevention requirements

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