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1981 to 2001 Trends Auckland “Region” Population, Migration, Industries and Occupational Mix

1981 to 2001 Trends Auckland “Region” Population, Migration, Industries and Occupational Mix. James Newell Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates (MERA). Auckland Regional Council 19th August 2005. Introduction.

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1981 to 2001 Trends Auckland “Region” Population, Migration, Industries and Occupational Mix

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  1. 1981 to 2001 TrendsAuckland “Region” Population, Migration, Industries and Occupational Mix James Newell Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates (MERA) Auckland Regional Council 19th August 2005

  2. Introduction • Just completed 2 year programme of building detailed statistical description of changing nature of NZ and its communities • Moving on to end uses / added value applications of that work • Presentation Outline • Background • Population – changing demographic structure • Population change components • Migration • Industries – industry shift share analysis • Occupations – Occupational workforce dynamics and shift share analysis

  3. Professional Interests and Background • 20 years plus working on development modelling and forecasting / independent social and economic research • Recent interests • Local and regional development modelling for service and infrqastructure planning (population, households, migration, land use, employment etc.) • Population projections and migration studies (2nd generation NZ regional migration, population accounting/vitals model version 2 just completed) • Operational forecasting (NZ Immigration Service operational forecasts, school roll projections etc.) • Labour market studies • Changing nature of work • Occupational workforce dynamics • Regional and rural development studies • Human educational capital and links to labour market

  4. Population Change in the Auckland “Region”

  5. Auckland Population : 1981-2001

  6. Annual % Change in the Auckland Population : 1981-2001

  7. Auckland TLA Region – Population by Age 1981 to 2001

  8. Auckland TA Region and New Zealand – 2001 Population Distribution by Age

  9. Auckland TA Region– Population Distribution by Age 1981 to 2001

  10. Components of Population Change in the Auckland “Region”

  11. Components of Auckland TA Region Population Change

  12. Auckland : Natural Increase Components

  13. Auckland Region : Number of Births by Age of Mother 1991 to 2003

  14. Auckland City - Birth Rates by Age of Mother

  15. Migration

  16. Auckland TA Region Migration Breakdown

  17. Auckland TA Region Migration Components

  18. 1996-2001 Migration Intensity by Age for Selected Regions

  19. Auckland TA Region : Net Migration Trends by Age Group

  20. International Out Migration Rate Trends

  21. Gender ratios

  22. Auckland Region Gender ratios

  23. Comparing Gender ratios

  24. Industry Trends

  25. Changing Composition of Auckland Employment by Industry

  26. Changing Composition of Auckland Employment by Industry

  27. Change in Auckland Job Numbers by Industry

  28. % Change in Auckland Job Numbers by Industry

  29. Annual FTE % Change – Selected Regional Comparisons : 1981-2001

  30. Auckland : Change in Job # for Selected Level 2 Industries

  31. Auckland : Change in Job # for Selected Level 5 Industries

  32. Jobs

  33. Regional Industry Shift Share Analysis

  34. Shift Share Analysis • Shift-Share Analysis following Dune (1960) • Where E represents employment • time is t, industry is i and region is j • NE represents National Employment Change Effect, • IM represents the Imdustry Mix Effect and • CE represents the Regional Competitive Effect.

  35. Auckland Region : FTE Shift Share Trends Summary : Industry Level 2

  36. Industry Mix Effect per annum as % of Start Industry FTE

  37. Regional Competitive Effect per annum as % of Start Industry FTE

  38. Regional Competitive Effect per annum as % of Start Industry FTE (12 highest growth rates)

  39. Auckland Regional Competitive Effect (12 largest 1996-2001 effects in FTEs)

  40. Auckland Regional Competitive Effect (13 lowest 1996-2001 effects in FTEs)

  41. Industry Shift Share Case Study : Restaurants Cafes and Other Eating and Drinking Places

  42. Regional Competitive Effect as % : Restaurants Cafes and Other Eating and Drinking Places

  43. Occupational Trends

  44. Auckland Occupations NZSCO Lvl 1

  45. % Auckland Occupations Lvl 1

  46. % Auckland Occupations Lvl 1

  47. Change in Auckland Occupations

  48. % Change in Auckland Occupations

  49. Regional Occupational Shift-Share Analysis

  50. Auckland Region : FTE Shift Share Trends Summary : Occupation Lvl 5

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