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Breakout session: 8b, Second round Recorder: Rob Payo Reporter: Blanche Meeson

Fundamental Concepts for Essential Principal: Through observations and our understanding of atmospheric processes, humans can simulate the past, present and future behavior of the atmosphere. Breakout session: 8b, Second round Recorder: Rob Payo Reporter: Blanche Meeson. General discussion.

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Breakout session: 8b, Second round Recorder: Rob Payo Reporter: Blanche Meeson

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  1. Fundamental Conceptsfor Essential Principal:Through observations and our understanding of atmospheric processes, humans can simulate the past, present and future behavior of the atmosphere Breakout session: 8b, Second round Recorder: Rob Payo Reporter: Blanche Meeson ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO

  2. General discussion • FCs should include the range of activities of making observations all the way to making meaning and interpretation of data • Redefine FCs: Make a progression of the process using each of the steps • Observation • Instruments • Analysis • Tools: simulation ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO

  3. Fundamental Concept #1: revised • Humans observe and measure the physical and chemical state of the atmosphere. • We use surface-, sub-surface-, air-, and space-based instruments to observe & measure the atmosphere • We also use proxy data sets (ice cores, sediment layers, tree rings, etc.) to understand past weather & climate patterns • Sustained observations are necessary ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO

  4. Fundamental Concept #2: revised • Observations and data are synthesized, analyzed and interpreted in order to understand and enable prediction of the behavior of the atmosphere. ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO

  5. Fundamental Concept #3: revised Understanding of uncertainties, probabilities and risk bound/constrain our ability to simulate the past, present, and future behavior of the atm and apply to decision making • Observations help to set the bounds and limits of what models and simulations can do • They help refine the predictive models through assimilation • It is not complete uncertainty, we know to what extent we’re uncertain • Geosciences: blending of sciences, not a controlled env—rely on math tools to help you state that observations are representations of the real world with certainty. You can’t control the experiment, rely on math as a proxy • Understanding the limits and uncertainty as an aspect of atmospheric science ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO

  6. Fundamental Concept #4: Revised We use theoretical understanding and observations to construct, refine, and improve computer models which are used to simulate atmospheric behavior. ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO

  7. Fundamental Concept #5: Revised Our increased understanding comes about with improvements in resolution of observation and simulation in space and time. ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO

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