1 / 17

MDSS Lab Prototype: Program Update and Highlights

MDSS Lab Prototype: Program Update and Highlights. Bill Mahoney National Center For Atmospheric Research (NCAR) MDSS Stakeholder Meeting Boulder, CO 20 October 2005. Photo by Dave Parsons. Overview. Overall System Enhancements Colorado Routes System Configuration New Products

ibtesam-javed
Télécharger la présentation

MDSS Lab Prototype: Program Update and Highlights

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. MDSS Lab Prototype: Program Update and Highlights Bill Mahoney National Center For Atmospheric Research (NCAR) MDSS Stakeholder Meeting Boulder, CO 20 October 2005 Photo by Dave Parsons

  2. Overview • Overall System Enhancements • Colorado Routes • System Configuration • New Products • Challenges • Release-4.0

  3. System Enhancements for Field Demo • Added Bridge Frost Potential Product • Based on Iowa State University Model (Tina Greenfield) • Added snow-water ratio algorithm • Added CDOT & E-470 ESS data (via MADIS) • Refined Rules of Practice for E-470 and CDOT • Refined insolation data sources (model blend)

  4. Vail Pass South Denver West Denver Colorado Routes 300 forecast site

  5. Data Fusion - Road Weather Forecast System Forecast Module A Forecast Integrator Data Ingest Forecast Module B Forecast Module C Post Processor Forecast Module D . . . National Weather Service Data Forecast Product Eta Model AVN MOS GFS Model SYNOP METARS Forecast Module N DICastTM MDSS Configuration – Colorado Supplemental Weather Models Ensemble System ModelInitialization MM5 NAM (Eta) WRF NAM (Eta) Multiple Members Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) DOT Data RWIS Road Condition & Treatment Module - Road Temperature Prediction Model - Chemical Concentration Algorithms - Rules of Practice for Anti- and Deicing Plow route specific treatment recommendations

  6. Supplemental Weather Forecast Model Domain 4 April 2005 - 24 hr forecast valid 3 pm 5 April 2005.

  7. WRF output 9 November 2004 FSL Model System Configuration MM5 and WRF Models Time Lagged Ensemble Used MM5 – Latest MM5 – Run from 1 hour previous MM5 – Run from 2 hours previous WRF – Latest WRF – Run from 1 hour previous WRF – Run from 2 hours previous

  8. MDSS Colorado Challenges • Intense direct solar radiation effects • Diurnal temperature variations • Strong nocturnal inversions • Shallow cold fronts • Large spread in model precipitation forecasts • Rain-to-Snow transition

  9. Strong Diurnal Temperature Swings 43oF at 7 AM 83oF at 11 AM Challenge for air and pavement prediction

  10. Strong Nocturnal Inversions Surface Temperature = 45oF Temperature at 1000 ft AGL = 60oF Impacts: Road frost Fog Road Temperatures All models have great difficulty with shallow layers!

  11. Early Morning Fog Case14 November 2004 Clear skies in WRF model Low clouds and fog observed

  12. Shallow Upslope Case Model estimation of clouds Shallow upslope clouds

  13. Mountain Wave Clouds WRF was able to predict some wave clouds, which is important for Front Range Wave Clouds Satellite Image WRF Model

  14. Resolving Complex Terrain Weather models smooth out terrain details resulting in poor forecasts at peaks and valleys.

  15. WRF Model Terrain 12-km Grid Black Hills Teton Big Horns San Juan Resolving Complex Terrain Standard NWS models cannot resolve details of the rugged terrain. T254 ~30 mile grid resolution T170 ~60 mile grid resolution WRF Terrain ~6 mile grid Central Rockies

  16. Halloween Snow Event CaseModel Differences MM5 Model WRF Model

  17. Release-4: Fall 2005 MDSS Release-4.0 Expected to be last major Lab MDSS Release! Release available mid fall 2005 • Major refinements to Rules Practice • Minor refinements to road temperature model (SNTHERM-RT) • Route by route configuration • Add reasons for recommended treatment • Add additional chemical equations (Caliber, IceBan) • Add blowing snow effect on treatments • Refine black ice (refreeze) treatment logic • Add ability to mix chemical types (user defined treatments) • Refine display products as necessary

More Related