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Cost and Supply of Geothermal Power

Cost and Supply of Geothermal Power. Susan Petty Black Mountain Technology. The Geothermal Resource Base. USGS Circular 790 Released in 1979 Based on data from 1950’s-1978 Bonneville Power Authority Pacific Northwest only More detail for Northwest resources

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Cost and Supply of Geothermal Power

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  1. Cost and Supply of Geothermal Power Susan Petty Black Mountain Technology

  2. The Geothermal Resource Base • USGS Circular 790 • Released in 1979 • Based on data from 1950’s-1978 • Bonneville Power Authority • Pacific Northwest only • More detail for Northwest resources • State Geothermal Resource Maps • All states with geothermal resources • Maps don’t evaluate resource potential

  3. US Geothermal Resource Estimates • USGS Circular 790 • Estimates recoverable heat and potential power output • Identifies resources on basis of surface manifestations • 23,000 MWe from identified hydrothermal resources • No assumptions about cost to produce power • Enhancing permeability of identified resources a possibility • Does not include hot dry rock • Cuts off electric power generation at 150°C

  4. US Geothermal Resource Estimates • BPA Northwest Resource Evaluation • More detailed estimates for Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana • Adds ~3500 MWe to USGS estimates for area • Does not rely solely on presence of hot springs • Considers cost in ranking resources for development

  5. Other Geothermal Resource Data • State geothermal resource maps • Currently being updated by INL and some state geological surveys or universities • Includes areas of high heat flow, surface manifestations and wells • Geothermal Map of the US • Recently updated • Based on heat flow calculated from shallow and deep well temperature measurements • Data available on web • Thermal Springs Map of the US • Springs with measured temperatures above regional groundwater temperature • USGS Updated Basin and Range Temperature Gradient Database • Now available on web from http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1999/of99-425/webmaps/home.html. • Includes data from industry exploration

  6. State Geothermal Resources Map - Utah

  7. Utah Geothermal Resource Map - INEL

  8. Geothermal Map of North America Detail of Utah

  9. Temperatures at Depth for Continental US

  10. Temperature at 6 km With depth to bedrock

  11. Resource From Heat Mining • Area in Utah that is above 240°C at 6 km • Total heat in place converted to electricity - 136,000 MWe for 1000 years • Recoverable heat at 20% recovery – 27,000 MWe

  12. Thermal Spring Map - Western US

  13. Thermal Spring Map - Utah

  14. Great Basin Geothermal Gradient Map

  15. Cost of Geothermal Power • Sandia – Petty, et al, Impact of Technology on Cost of Geothermal Power • EPRI – Brugman, et al, Next Generation Geothermal Power Plants - 1996 • Renewable Northwest Project: Geothermal Power - 2002

  16. Modeling Cost of Geothermal Power • IM-GEO – Impact of Technology on Cost of Geothermal Power – Completed 1990, Updated – 1994 • Used to build supply curves – 1992 • Input for NEMS modeling by EIA • EIA currently using this study escalated to current $ • GETEM – Geothermal Energy Technology Enhancement Model • In Beta testing • Based on drilling costs from Sandia study 2004 • Plant capital costs from reports by Ormat and Power Engineers and on EPRI 1996 study.

  17. Modeling Data Requirements • Resource Data • Temperature • Depth • Flow per well • Size of resource • Temperature/Pressure decline rate • Drilling difficulty – geology • Exploration success rate • Confirmation success rate • Plant Data • Binary or Flash • Size of plant • Number of units • Binary or flash • Pumped or Self Flow • O&M as % of cost • Economic Data • Fixed Charge Rate • Utilization Factor % • Contingency %

  18. Cost Modeling Results Binary Basin and Range Shallow Wells– 5000 ft wells, 150°C, 2000 gpm, Basin and Range drilling, Air-cooled binary plant, pumped wells

  19. Break Down of Geothermal Power Cost Binary Basin and Range Shallow Wells – 2000 ft wells, 150°C, 2000 gpm, Basin and Range drilling, Air-cooled binary plant, pumped wells

  20. Cost Modeling Results Binary Base Case – 5000 ft wells, 150°C, 2000 gpm, Basin and Range drilling, Air-cooled binary plant, pumped wells

  21. Break Down of Geothermal Power Cost Binary Base Case – 5000 ft wells, 150°C, 2000 gpm, Basin and Range drilling, Air-cooled binary plant, pumped wells

  22. Cost Modeling Results Flash Base Case – 8000 ft wells, 200°C, 500K lb/hr, Basin and Range drilling, Dual Flash plant

  23. Break Down of Geothermal Power Cost Flash Base Case – 8000 ft wells, 200°C, 500K lb/hr, Basin and Range drilling, Dual Flash plant

  24. Cost Modeling Results EGS High Temperature Case - 240°C at 6 km, pumped wells, 395 gpm

  25. Cost Modeling Results EGS High Temperature Case - 240°C at 6 km, pumped wells, 510 gpm with technology improvement

  26. Break Down of Geothermal Power Cost EGS High Temperature Case - 240°C at 6 km, pumped wells, 510 gpm, with technology improvement

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