Strategic Operational Risk Analysis and Mapping

1. Strategic Operational Risk Analysis and Mapping Speaker: Bob McKee; Chief Fire Officer (ret.) International Strategy Fire Service College, United Kingdom www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

2. Overview • Define Risk • How does it apply to us? • Enterprise vs. Strategic Risk Management • Disaster Risk Reduction Model • How does this benefit us? • Case Studies • Discussion www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

3. Risk Defined …the possibility that something bad or unpleasant (such as an injury or a loss) will happen…. Source: Merriam-Webster Dictionary www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

4. Risk? Disasters Tornados Storms Hurricanes Earthquakes And… www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

5. Risk? Everyday Office Food Allergies Water Systems Here today And… www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

6. Risk in Emergency Services • Policies • Procedures • Operational Guidelines • Safety Officers • After-Action Reporting • Lessons Learnt • Training www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

7. What else? • What systems can help us beyond the “obvious” risk? • How else can we apply measures to reduce or identify risk? • How do we address all potential risk? • Can we take this too far? • Are we adverse to all risk? www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

8. Theory Enterprise Risk Management Strategic Risk Management Begins with a vision of the ideal future Improve awareness and stakeholder involvement Adaptive approach Trending and adaptable • High level view to avoid risk • Internal protection against risk • Risk identification and classification • A view in time www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

9. Measurement Likelihood Hazard (Impact) www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

10. Measurement www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

11. Risk Paradigm? • Business • Community(s) • Governments • Personal • What else? www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

12. Disaster Risk Reduction • USAID • Purpose • Intent • Value www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

13. Disaster Risk Reduction • Hazard • What • Flooding, Earthquakes, General Crisis • Vulnerability • Susceptibility • Magnitude • Coping capacity • Infrastructure • Skills and Resources www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

14. Disaster Risk (R) = Vulnerability (V) x Hazard (H) Capacity (C) Modeling Hazard Vulnerability Capacity Source: United States Agency International Development (USAID) www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

15. Hurricane Katrina • Critical Factors • Lack of action locally • Late decision making • Socio-Economic Issues • Politics • Security & Corruption • Media • Change in orders • Reality • “Normal” • Funding www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

16. Space Shuttle Columbia • Who’s in Charge? • Priorities • Politics • Security www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

17. Hurricane Ike September 9, 2008 September 15, 2008 www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

18. Risk Modeling • Flood Planning • Demographics • Susceptibility • Social/Economics • Resources • Mitigation www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

19. Factors www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

20. Risk Modeling • History (Areas prone to flood) • Topography • Geology • Known risk areas • Planning • Responsibilty • Mitigation www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

21. Application Risk Assessment Risk Management Actions/Mitigation www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

22. Measurement • Can we plan for everything? • Education • Public information • Media • Assessment • Exercises • Extremes… www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

23. Challenges • Size • Scope • Factors • Social • Economic • Political • Impact • Longevity www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

24. Case Study • Hurricane “Ike” • Date: September 1, 2008 – September 14, 2008 • Total fatalities: 195 • Highest winds: 143 mph (230 km/h) • Lowest pressure: 935 mb • Category: Category 4 Hurricane (SSHS) • Damage $37.5 billion (2008 USD) www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

25. Ike’s Center4:00 PM CDT • Hurricane (CAT 1) • 90 MPH Sustained / Higher Gusts • 23.9 N / 85.3 W (225 MI WSW of Key West) • 957 MB / 28.26 IN • WNW @ 8 MPH www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

26. www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

27. www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

28. INTENSITY: Range from Mid-Cat 1 to borderline Cat 4 www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

29. 3 4 5 Friday, Sept. 12, 4 AM Thursday, Sept. 11, 4 PM Thursday, Sept. 11, 4 AM Tuesday, Sept. 9, 4 AM Wednesday, Sept. 10, 4 AM Sheltering Community Staging Area Evacuating Area NHC Advisories Sept. 9 - 12 Hurricane Ike(Resource staging by track) 1 Note: 367 Miles of Coastline $7 Billon in Economic Value 2 SAR Staging and movement www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee Source: U.S. Geological Survey and USGS library.

30. San AntonioExpected Hurricane Ike Impact • Tropical Storm force winds • Duration: 18-24 hours • Onset: MID to 3AM SAT • Sustained 35-45 MPH/G60mph • Cessation: 6PM to 9 SAT • Hurricane-force winds • Sustained hurricane-strength winds not expected • Hurricane-strength windgusts possible: Noon to 7PM SAT • Rainfall • Amounts: 3-6” with isolated 10” • Time Frame: Heaviest rains from 7AM SAT – 1PM SUN San Antonio www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

31. Landfall overnight early Sat. morning Matagorda Bay High-end Cat 3 hurricane: 125 MPH Sustained 155 MPH Gusts www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

32. Tropical Storm Force Winds >50kt Winds Hurricane Force Winds www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

33. Lessons Learnt • Risk is evident • Risk Assessment (Identification) • Best Models will challenge • Agility/Flexibility • Sustainment/Resilience • Plan • Execute www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

34. Measurements • Post event assessment • Risk change • New Risks • Change factors • Short-term • Long-term • Exercise/test/assessment www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

35. Discussion • Questions • Discussion • Input www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee

36. Thank you Speaker: Bob McKee; Chief Fire Officer (ret.) International Strategy Fire Service College, United Kingdom The Fire Service College Moretonin Marsh Gloucestershire GL56 0RH Tel: +44 00 1608 812984 Email: sales@fireservicecollege.ac.uk Web: www.fireservicecollege.ac.uk www.kfsd.gov.kw - Robert McKee