Shopping for S-030: Intermediate Statistics: Applied Regression and Data Analysis

1. Shopping for S-030: Intermediate Statistics: Applied Regression and Data Analysis

2. A simple test to determine whether S-030 is right for you(actually, the only test you’ll take in S-030) • Thinking back over all the journal articles & research reports you read last semester, • in what percentage of papers did you carefully read the methods section? • All (100%) • Most (75-99%) • Many (50-74%) • Some (25-49%) • A Few (1-24%) • None (0%) • And across all the methods sections you read, in what percentage did you understand what the researchers did well enough to critically evaluate the credibility of the results? • All (100%) • Most (75-99%) • Many (50-74%) • Some (25-49%) • A Few (1-24%) • None (0%)

3. Is ABC News Really Beating NBC News in the Ratings Race? Maybe, BUT: this difference is well within the limits of sampling error

4. Do All-Nighters Really Not Improve Grades? Maybe, BUT: Are we sure about the direction of the causal arrow?

5. Are More Attractive Parents Really More Likely to Have Daughters? 52% combined Maybe, BUT: What about linearity and multiple comparisons?

6. What you’ll learn in S-030: The science and art of data analysis, regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA) Unit 1: Introduction to simple linear regression Unit 2: Correlation and causality Unit 3: Inference for the regression model Building a solid foundation Unit 5: Transformations to achieve linearity Unit 4: Regression assumptions: Evaluating their tenability Mastering the subtleties Adding additional predictors Unit 6: The basics of multiple regression Unit 7: Statistical control in depth: Correlation and collinearity Generalizing to other types of predictors and effects Unit 9: Categorical predictors II: Polychotomies Unit 8: Categorical predictors I: Dichotomies Unit 10: Interaction and quadratic effects Pulling it all together Unit 11: Regression modeling in practice

7. How you’ll spend your time in S-030, Part I:What we’ll do in class Each unit has a three-part structure Lectures with your questions: Active participation is encouraged!!! • I. Research Questions and Data Sets • Are college students from integrated high schools more—or less—comfortable with minorities? • Did Al Gore really lose the 2000 Presidential Race in Florida? • … and many more Note-taking: On laptop or printouts of handouts, but if you use a laptop, please sit on the side (they’re noisy)! • II. Delve into the new statistical content that the RQs (and the unit) demands • What aspect of the model do we need to learn more about? • How do we represent this aspect of the model algebraically & graphically? • What assumptions are we making (and how do we evaluate whether these make sense?) Please be courteous: No cellphones, email, websurfing, IM, texting or other electronic distractions during class • III. Interpreting & presenting results • How do we interpret computer output? • What conclusions can we draw—and what conclusions don’t necessarily follow? • How do we write up our results—in words, graphs, tables? • How do we communicate results to both technical and non-technical audiences?

8. How you’ll spend your time in S-030, Part II:What you’ll do outside of class • Individual and group work • Work in study groups as you’d like, but write and submit HWs individually • The final project may be submitted on your own or with one partner TFs will hold over 20 hours of office hours each week, using a sign up system Statistical computing with structured tutorials • Assignments • Six homework assignments, each consisting of a RQ, data set & questions that guide you through a complete analysis (~⅔ grade) • One final project that gives you a chance to pull together all your component skills into a polished professional product (~⅓ grade) No required reading, but we’ve ordered: …and placed other books on reserve….. Course website: http://my.gse.harvard.edu/course/gse-s030a/2009/spring

9. Eight things you should do before the first class meeting, next Tuesday 3. Register in one of the two identical sections • 7. Decide how you want to access PC-SAS • Visit the LTC on Gutman 3 • Printout your copy of the • S-030 PC-SAS manual • Think about whether it makes sense for you to purchase a license • 1. Make sure you have the prerequisites • An intro statistics class (S-012, S-010Y or equivalent) • Some experience with statistical computing (not necessarily PC-SAS) 4. Read the School’s policy on plagiarism All written work submitted is to be in your own words • 5. Familiarize yourself with the S-030 website • Bookmark the site • Read the syllabus—it includes many more details and is our learning contract. 2. Complete and submit the on-line course sign up sheet Fill out the on-line poll to give us some background information and let us know you will be taking the class http://poll.icommons.harvard.edu/poll/taker/pollTaker.jsp?poll=1-8379-77386 • 8. Bring the first handout to class • We’ll be posting the 1st handout to the website by Monday • You don’t have to read it; just be sure to bring it 6. Read “Best Practices in S-030” Helpful advice from former students and TFs