NAMAP / NAMAP2 integrating modeling and field activities in NAME Dave Gutzler U. New Mexico

1. NAMAP / NAMAP2 integrating modeling and field activities in NAME Dave Gutzler U. New Mexico presented to NAME SWG6 Tucson, 23 Apr 2004 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research_papers/ncep_cpc_atlas/11/index.html

2. NAMAP timeline & protocolhttp://www.joss.ucar.edu/name/namap/ • NAMAP protocol • Focus on Tiers I, II • Specify year (1990), SST • Analyze monthly-averaged NAMS atmospheric and surface output • Resolve monthly-averaged diurnal cycle in Tier 1 • Goals • Common control simulations • Show common uncertainties • and modeling challenges

3. NAMAP participating models/groups Regional Global Lateral boundary conditions: Reanalysis SST: NOAA OIv2 11° weekly analysis Land surface treatments vary Summer 1990 simulations

4. (Tier I) All models generate a summer (Jul or Aug) precip max in both averaging areas Both global models initiate monsoon rainfall later in the season (Aug max instead of July) … Sensitive to soil moisture?

5. NAMAP Analysis: Some key points • All models simulate a summer precip maximum; the two global models exhibit delayed monsoon onset (Aug instead of Jul) • Precip diurnal cycle issues: magnitude of late-day convection, amount of nocturnal rainfall? • Surface quantities (T, LH, SH fluxes) seem very poorly constrained; huge model differences (no validation data) • Low-level slope jets occur -- but only weakly tied to variability of Tier 1 precip? Needs additional analysis, and close observation in 2004 field season

6. NAMAP Analysis: Metrics for model development • Improved simulation of monsoon onset, especially in global models • Goals for improvement of precipitation (total amount and diurnal variability) and surface flux simulations, tied to improvements in ground truth to be achieved from NAME 2004 field observations • Questions regarding the structure of low-level jet circulations and their importance for proper precipitation simulation

7. What is the purpose of NAMAP2? • Extend NAMAP-style activity as NAME 2004 field campaign gets underway • Establish baseline simulations of the 2004 summer monsoon season to promote sensitivity studies and model development efforts by each individual modeling group. • Link to model development research emphasizing the diurnal cycle of precipitation • Link modeling to enhanced observations of precip, low-level wind, and surface fluxes • Provide an organizational umbrella for broad participation in NAME-related modeling activities • A focus activity for NAME modeling workshop(s)

8. NAMAP-2: Some issues to consider • Development of simulation targets • we've put together a tentative list, based on NAMAP-derived goals • carry out multiple runs to address sensitivity to SST, soil moisture? • Link to model development research • merge or integrate NAMAP-2 withCPT effort? • hence enhance focus on the diurnal cycle (of precipitation)? • Link NAMAP-2 toenhanced observations of precip, low-level wind, and surface fluxes • Expand participation • Entrain new participation, especially international • Define needs for, and source of, support • LoI for NOAA OGP/CPPA support submitted eariier this week

9. Seasonal cycle of SWNA precipitation(observations: Higgins & Shi 11 daily gridded fields) • Jun: dry north of 30N • Jul: month of maximum precipitation • Aug: somewhat diminished continuation of monsoon [cm]

10. No obs here! What is the “true” diurnal cycle? • All models show convective max between 21Z-04Z • How much nocturnal rain should be falling?

11. Persistence of summer precipitation anomalies in the "Core" monsoon region Pre-monsoon rains correlate positively with monsoon rains in the heart of the North American monsoon region "CORE" region P(early) > 1 mm/d "always" leads to P(late) > 3 mm/d [Gutzler 2004]