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SEEM Phase II Calibration for Manufactured Homes

SEEM Phase II Calibration for Manufactured Homes. Regional Technical Forum August 12, 2014. Phase II general approach. Phase I gave us total heating energy estimates for homes with clear VBDD signatures. RTF measure savings needs average electric energy savings for all program homes.

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SEEM Phase II Calibration for Manufactured Homes

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  1. SEEM Phase II Calibration for Manufactured Homes Regional Technical Forum August 12, 2014

  2. Phase II general approach • Phase I gave us total heating energy estimates for homes with clear VBDD signatures. • RTF measure savings needs average electric energy savings for all program homes. • Phase II uses regression to find out how the presence of non-electric fuels affects electric heating energy. • Regression focuses on TMY-normalized (VBDD) estimates derived from electric billing data.

  3. Phase II data filters, part 1 Sites excluded from Phase-II regression for a few reasons… Note: We don’t remove sites with non-electric heating fuels since our goal is to estimate those features’ effects.

  4. Phase II data filters, part 2 By the numbers….

  5. Phase II regression model All else equal, VBDD-electric in homes with feature differ from that of homes without feature by a factor of . Hence, feature associated with adjustment to VBDD kWh.

  6. What about poor VBDD fits? Non-electric fuels account for 23.7% - 5.7% = 18% gap between good-VBDD and poor-VBDD sites. That’s more than the 14% figure we got from annualized energy. Propose to accept 18% figure and make no additional VBDD adjustment. (So non-electric fuels account for differences between good-VBDD and bad-VBDD sites, and they differ by 18%).

  7. Proposed Phase II Calibration

  8. Phase II Calculation Example 0.0% of Phase I kWh 7.9% of Phase I kWh 92.1% of Phase I kWh

  9. Decision I, ________, move that the RTF adopt the phase II calibration for manufactured homes as described above and summarized below.

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