THE NETHER LANDS SINCE WORLD WAR TWO: FROM RELIGIOUS PILLARS TO ULTRA-LIBERALISM?

1. THE NETHERLANDS SINCE WORLD WAR TWO: FROM RELIGIOUS PILLARS TO ULTRA-LIBERALISM? WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN PRESENTATION AT THE OBSERVATOIRE SOCIOLOGIQUE DU CHANGEMENT PARIS - APRIL 27, 2007

2. THE LARGER PART OF MY PRESENTATION CONCERNS THE MENDRAS QUESTION DID SOMETHING LIKE THE SECOND FRENCH REVOLUTION TAKE PLACE IN THE NETHERLANDS BETWEEN 1965 AND 1984? I ALSO DISCUSS THE FIRST DUTCH REVOLUTION AND A POSSIBLE RECENT THIRD ONE

3. THE SHORT ANSWER TO THE MENDRAS QUESTION YES, IT DID IN THE SENSE THAT AN OPEN MIDDLE CLASS EMERGED A LARGE GROUP OF TECHNICALLY, ADMINISTRATIVELY AND COMMERCIALLY HIGHLY SKILLED PERSONS THE LONG ANSWER BUT A CHANGE FROM WHAT TO WHAT?

4. THE STARTING POINT OF THE SECOND REVOLUTION IN THE NETHERLANDS IS THE OUTCOME OF THE FIRST FRENCH REVOLUTION IN THAT COUNTRY THAT OUTCOME FEATURES THE RELIGION OF PERSONS RELIGIOUS CHANGES AND THEIR AFTERMATH MAKE UP THE SECOND REVOLUTION THAT REVOLUTION BEGAN IN THE MID 1950s IT STILL IS NOT OVER ALTHOUGH A THIRD REVOLUTION NOW MAY BE UNDERWAY

5. DUTCH SOCIETY CONSISTED OF PERSONS BELONGING TO VARIOUS RELIGIONS UNTIL THE MID 1950s THERE WERE FEW PERSONAL TIES BETWEEN THESE PERSONS WITH EACH DENOMINATION HAVING ITS OWN ORGANISATIONS DUTCH SOCIETY WAS NOT SO MUCH STRATIFIED DUTCH SOCIETY WAS PILLARIZED

6. MY LONG ANSWER TO THE MANDRAS QUESTION: THE PILLARS OF DUTCH SOCIETY CRUMBLED BY EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AS PART OF THE DEMOCRATIC AND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTIONS BUT RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS DELAYED THEIR COLLAPSE HERE I WILL NOT HUNT FOR OTHER EFFECTS OF EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION LIKE * SMALLER INCOME INEQUALITIES * MORE SOCIAL MOBILITY * LESS EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY * LOWER LEGITIMACY OF HIGH CULTURE BUT FOR EFFECTS OF A STEEP RELIGIOUS DECLINE * PARTICULARLY ULTRA-LIBERALISM

8. THE NETHERLANDS AND THE FIRST FRENCH REVOLUTION

9. THE RELIGIOUS SITUATION IN THE NETHERLANDS BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THE SECOND ‘FRENCH’ REVOLUTION WAS THE OUTCOME OF THE FIRST FRENCH REVOLUTION WITH HELP FROM THE FRENCH ARMY IN 1795 THE DUTCH PATRIOTS WHO HAD BEEN EXILED IN 1787 TO FRANCE COMMITTED A COUP D’ETAT IN THE NETHERLANDS

10. THE PRE-1795 GOVERNMENT WAS IN A PERPETUAL DEADLOCK SINCE EACH OF THE SEVEN PROVINCES MAKING UP THE NETHERLANDS HAD A VETO ABOUT STATE DECISIONS THE PATRIOTS DID AWAY WITH THE VETO RULE

11. IN PRE-1795 DAYS ONLY PROTESTANT PERSONS COULD HOLD PUBLIC OFFICES CATHOLIC PERSONS COULD NOT THE 1789 FRENCH LIST OF HUMAN RIGHTS WAS ADOPTED BY THE PATRIOT GOVERNMENT THE NEW DUTCH CONSTITUTION STIPULATED EQUAL RIGHTS BEFORE THE LAW IRRESPECTIVE OF RELIGION

12. AFTER 1815 EQUAL RIGHTS FOR PERSONS OF VARIOUS RELIGIONS BECAME PART OF THE DUTCH CONSITITUTION DUTCH FAMILY LAW AND PENAL LAW WERE NEAR-TRANSLATIONS OF THE CODE PENAL AND THE CODE CIVIL FAMILY LAW TOOK MARRIAGE OUT OFF THE JURISDICTION OF THE CHURCHES PENAL LAW DID NOT PUNISH SEX BETWEEN CONSENTING ADULTS OF THE SAME SEX

13. WITH THE CONSTITUTIONAL FREEDOM TO FOUND RELIGIOUS DENOMINATIONS VARIOUS KINDS OF ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS BROKE AWAY FROM THE OLD MAINSTREAM PROTESTANT CHURCH TO FORM THIS HAPPENED IN 1834, 1886, 1946 AND 2005 LEADING TO VARIOUS RE-REFORMED CHURCHES NEXT TO THE OLD REFORMED CHURCH

14. FROM 1870 ONWARDS DUTCH POLITICS WAS IN DEADLOCK WITH TWO STRONGLY DIVISIVE ISSUES GENERAL SUFFRAGE AND FULL STATE FUNDING OF RELIGIOUS PRIMARY SCHOOLS IN 1917 THE DEADLOCK WAS RESOLVED BY LOG ROLLING BETWEEN TWO OF THREE EQUALLY STRONG POLITICAL BLOCS

15. GENERAL FUNDING SUFFRAGE RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS SOCIALISTS STRONGLY NEUTRAL IN FAVOR PROTESTANTS NEUTRAL STRONGLY + CATHOLICS IN FAVOR LIBERALS AGAINST AGAINST

17. GENERAL SUFFRAGE COMPLETED THE FIRST FRENCH REVOLUTION IN THE NETHERLANDS BUT WHAT EFFECTS DID THE LAW HAVE THAT FUNDS RELIGIOUS AND STATE SCHOOLS EQUALLY? EFFECTS THAT GO TEMPORARILY AGAINST NISBET’S MODERNIZATION HYPOTHESIS THE INDUSTRIAL AND DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTIONS MAKE FOR MORE OPEN CLASSES AND A DECLINE OF THE SACRED

18. WHO BELIEVES THAT SECULARITY WILL INCREASE WHEN SCHOOLS BECOME RELIGIOUS?! INDEED, IN THE NETHERLANDS CATHOLICS AND PROTESTANTS NOT ONLY HAD THEIR OWN PRIMARY SCHOOLS THEY ALSO FOUNDED OTHER PROTECTIVE ASSOCIATIONS

19. CATHOLICS PROTESTANTS SOCIALISTS NEWSPAPER 1845 1872 1900 POLITICAL PARTY 1904 1878 1881 LABOR UNION 1909 1908 1893 UNIVERSITY 1923 1880 NEVER BROADCASTING ASSOCIATION 1925 1924 1925

20. * IN 1965 THE CATHOLIC NEWSPAPER BECAME INDEPENDENT OF THE CATHOLIC CHURCH * IN THE MID 1970s THE SOCIALIST NEWSPAPER CLOSED DOWN AFTER A STRING OF ELECTORAL LOSSES * IN 1977 THE CATHOLIC PARTY MERGED WITH THE TWO LARGEST PROTESTANT PARTIES * IN 1982 THE SOCIALIST LABOUR UNION AND THE CATHOLIC LABOUR UNION MERGED * BUT ALREADY IN THE MID 1950s THE PILLARS BEGAN TO BE UNDERMINED BY MORE RELIGIOUSLY MIXED MARRIAGES

21. ODDS RATIO’S FOR BEING A CHURCH MEMBER OR NOT AND VOTING FOR A CONFESSIONAL PARTY OR NOT 1946 63,7 1956 35,5 1967 25,1 1971 24,0 1972 28,6 1977 14,0 1981 21,7 1982 19,0 1986 7,8 1989 9,3 1994 13,6 1998 25,9 THE RELIGIOUS PARTIES NOT ONLY DECLINED BECAUSE OF FEWER RELIGIOUS PERSONS RELIGIOUS PERSONS BEGAN TO VOTE FOR NON-RELIGIOUS PARTIES (AND NOW SOMETIMES THE OTHER WAY AROUND)

22. THE PARADOX OF INTEGRATION AND COHESION If the members of church x have been to the school of that denomination, read its newspaper, listen to its radio programs, watch its television programs, vote for its party, belong to its labor union and marry within this church And if this holds for the members of the other denominations in a society too THEN THE MEMBERS OF THIS SOCIETY MAT BE CALLED STRONGLY INTEGRATED INTO THEIR OWN RELIGIOUS GROUPS BUT THE COHESION OF THIS SOCIETY IS WEAK The decline of pillarization increased Dutch cohesion

23. THE HYPOTHESIS EMBODIED IN THE INTEGRATION-COHESION PARADOX IS NOT A TAUTOLOGY SINCE THERE ARE INDEPENDENT INDICATORS FOR SOCIETAL COHESION SUCH AS * THE NUMBERS OF MONTHS IT TAKES AFTER AN ELECTION TO FORM A COALITION GOVERNMENT * THE CHANCES FOR A GOVERNMENT TO FALL BEFORE ITS TIME HAS RUN OUT

24. PUTNAM BURIED THE SUBSTANTIVELY INTERESTING PARADOX OF STRONG INDIVIDUAL INTEGRATION AND LIMITED SOCIETAL COHESION WITH THE EXPRESSIONS ‘BONDING SOCIAL CAPITAL’ AND ‘BRIDGING SOCIAL CAPITAL’ IN BOWLING ALONE PUTNAM SHOULD NOW WRITE BOWLING APART DID SCHNAPPER SEE THE PARADOX OF INTEGRATION AND COHESION IN QU’EST-QUE L’INTEGRATION?

26. BACK TO THE LONG ANSWER TO THE MANDRAS QUESTION FOR THE NETHERLANDS DID RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS WEAKEN COHESION OF DUTCH SOCIETY? DID THEY STRENGTHEN PILLARIZATION? DID THEY MAKE FOR MORE RELIGIOUS HOMOGAMY?

27. YEARS AND PERCENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL PUPILS IN RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS ADMINISTRATIVE DATA 2000 68

28. FROM MACRO-DATA TO MICRO DATA YEAR OF BIRTH, RELIGION OF PARENTS, TYPE OF PRIMARY SCHOOL ATTENDED RETROSPECTIVE DATA FROM THE NETHERLANDS’ FAMILY SURVEYS 1993, 1998 AND 2000 cath parents prot parents nonrel parentscath schools prot schools public schools 19xx-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1983 91 94 95 91 80 61 73 73 76 73 78 80 76 67 61 NON-RELIOUS PARENTS NOW SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS SUPPOSEDLY FOR THEIR QUALITY – AND FEW MIGRANT PUPILS

29. Take religious homogamy as an indicator of the sacred Religious schools should make for more religious homogamy and should counter a trend towards less religious homogamy occasioned by jobs in factories (where denominations mix) Apply this opportunities hypothesis Under the condition that religious school attendance rose most in the 1920s and 1930s The tendency to marry within one’s own religion will increase until the 1950s and then will decline

30. Log odds ratio’s for Protestants marrying Catholics in the Netherlands and two large Dutch municipalities time series of administrative data

31. A DETAILED PICTURE OBTAINED BY LOGLINEAR MODELS AND SPLITTING THE PROTESTANTS INTO THE REFORMED AND THE BREAKAWAY RE-REFORMED 1955 AS THE WATERSHED

32. THE HYPOTHESIS THAT AN INCREASE IN ATTENDANCE OF RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS MAKES FOR MORE RELIGIOUS HOMOGAMY IS UPHELD AS WELL AS THE HYPOTHESIS THAT RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS CANNOT WIPE OUT THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION

34. THE LONG ANSWER TO THE MENDRAS QUESTION CONTINUED FROM MORE MIXED MARRIAGES AS AN INDICATOR OF SECULARIZATION TO A DECLINE IN CHURCH MEMBERSHIP AS AN INDICATOR OF IT WHY A DECLINE IN THE NETHERLANDS IN BELONGING TO ANY RELIGION?

35. BETWEEN 1960 AND 1971 THE PERCENT OF CATHOLICS INCREASED SLIGHTLY MISLEADING CROSS-SECTIONAL RATES GO AFTER EVENT-HISTORY MODELS

36. THE PIVOTAL SURVEY QUESTIONS * First ask persons whether they now count themselves as belonging to a denomination if no * Then ask persons whether or not their parents brought them up in a denomination if yes * Then ask persons to mention the year they stopped considering themselves as belonging to that denomination * Also ascertain the educational histories of persons In this way we could run discrete-time event-history models for leaving church with education as a time-dependent co-variate and we could avoid the causal difficulties of the cross-sectional relation for adults between religion and education

38. MANIPULATION OF THE INTERACTION TERMS FOR YEAR AND DENOMINATION SHOW THAT NOWADAYS CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH DO NOT DIFFER BETWEEN DENOMINATIONS PROTESTANT SCHOOLS COUNTER CHURCH LEAVING CATHOLIC SCHOOLS DO NOT THE MORE NON-RELIGOUS PERSONS THERE ALREADY ARE IN A PROVINCE THE MORE LIKELY IS A RELIGIOUS PERSON LIVING IN THAT PROVINCE TO LEAVE CHURCH

39. NOTE THAT WE CIRCUMVENT THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF STATISTICALLY DISTINGUISHING EFFECTS OF AGE, COHORT AND PERIOD BY BRINGING IN SUBSTANTIVE HYPOTHESES ++

40. IRRESPECTIVE OF A RELIGIOUS PERSON’S EDUCATION THE HIGHER THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF EDUCATION IN THE PROVINCE WHERE THIS PERSON LIVES THE MORE LIKELY THIS PERSON IS TO LEAVE CHURCH IF RELIGIOUS PARENTS VOTE FOR A LEFT-WING PARTY THEIR CHILDREN ARE MORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH

41. THE MAIN EFFECT OF AGE DOES NOT DISAPPEAR AFTER INTRODUCING LEAVING HOME AND MARRIAGE THE MAIN EFFECT OF EDUCATION DOES DISAPPEAR AFTER INTRODUCING AN INTERACTION OF LEAVING HOME AND EDUCATION PEOPLE BECOME NON-RELIGIOUS WHEN THEY LEAVE HOME AND CONTINUE THEIR EDUCATION

43. THE LONG ANSWER TO THE MENDRAS QUESTION CONTINUED DUTCH RESEARCH ONLY ABOUT BELONGING? DAVIE’S POINT OF BELIEVING WITHOUT BELONGING IS MISLEADING SINCE AT LEAST IN THE NETHERLANDS BELIEF IS DECLINING TOO AND SINCE NON-AFFILIATION SHOULD MAKE FOR LESS BELIEF (the mirror image of Durkheim's hypotheses that integration into a group makes for living up to its norms and that rites reinforce beliefs)

44. INDEED, THE SURVEY QUESTION OF THE EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEYS AND DAVIES’ FINDINGS DO YOU BELIEVE IN GOD OR A HIGHER POWER? HAS A LITTLE-NOTICED BUILT-IN TENDENCY TO UNDERSTATE SECULARIZATION NOT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE WORD OR BUT ALSO BECAUSE THE QUESTION REFERS TO SOME GOD NOT TO THE GOD OF CHRISTIANITY

45. THE VARIOUS FINDINGS THAT DUTCH SOCIETY CONTINUES TO BE SECULARIZING WITH EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AS THE PROPELLER HAS BEEN MET WITH DISBELIEF BY SOCIOLOGISTS LIKE STARK WHO PREACH RATIONAL CHOICE MARKET THEORIES Greeley once took religiously mixed marriages as indicating secularization Now Greeley no longer does

46. MARKET THEORIES OF RELIGION ONLY SEE COMPETITION BETWEEN RELIGIONS * I HOLD THAT RELIGIONS COMPETE WITH EDUCATION * I HOLD THAT COMPETITION IS THERE EVEN IF EDUCATION TAKES PLACE IN RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS * I HOLD THAT RELIGION LOOSES OUT IF EDUCATION EXPANDS IN THE WAKE OF CONTINUING (POST)INDUSTRIALIZATION

47. IS THERE NOTHING IN THE CURRENT MARKET CRITICISMS OF THE HYPOTHESIS THAT EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION MAKES FOR SECULARIZATION? THE MOST RELIGIOUS PERSONS IN THE NETHERLANDS ARE THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS THEY ARE SOMETIMES ACTIVE WITHIN THE MAINSTREAM REFORMED CHURCH BUT MORE OFTEN BELONG TO SMALL BREAKAWAY RE-REFORMED CHURCHES

48. WE CALL ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS PERSONS WHO READ THE BIBLE IN THE 1632 TRANSLATION AND ADHERE TO THE ARTICLES OF FAITH OF THE HEIDELBERG CONFESSION THEY VOTE FOR A POLITICAL PARTY WHICH HAS BEEN GETTING TWO PERCENT OF THE VOTE SINCE WORLD WAR TWO SINCE 1973 THEY HAVE THEIR OWN BROADCASTING ASSOCIATION ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS NOW SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO THEIR OWN STATE-FUNDED SECUNDARY SCHOOLS

49. DO DUTCH ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS SECULARIZE AND IF YES DOES EDUCATION HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH THAT? DUTCH LAWS DO NOT REQUIRE VACCINATION AGAINST CONTAGIOUS DISEASES NON-VACCIONATION AGAINST CONTAGIOUS DISEASES IS WIDESPREAD AMONG ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS THEY HOLD THAT PREVENTIVE MEDICINE INTERFERES WITH GOD’S PLAN FOR EVERY PERSON DOES AMONG ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS FATHER’S EDUCATION RAISE THE CHANCES OF CHILD VACCINATION? AND DOES MOTHER’S EDUCATION DO SO TOO?

50. THE NETHERLANDS ACCORDING TO ADMINISTRATIVE VOTING STATISTICS HAS A BIBLE BELT AND ACCORDING TO ADMINISTRATIVE STATISTICS IN THIS AREA VACCINATION RATES ARE LOWER