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Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops 2010

Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops 2010. Clive James, Chair, ISAAA Randy A. Hautea, Global Coordinator, ISAAA and Director, ISAAA SEAsia Center. Public Forum on Science Communication, April 6, 2011, Biopolis, Singapore. About Us . International Service for the

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Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops 2010

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  1. Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops 2010 Clive James, Chair, ISAAA Randy A. Hautea, Global Coordinator, ISAAA and Director, ISAAA SEAsiaCenter Public Forum on Science Communication, April 6, 2011, Biopolis, Singapore

  2. About Us International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications Mission Help increase crop productivity and income generation, and bring about a safer environment and more sustainable agricultural development. Major Programs Facilitate sharing of information and experiences on crop biotechnology through a global network; Transfer and deliver appropriate biotechnology applications to developing countries Information Experiences Knowledge SHARING… Capacities Resources Technologies

  3. The Global Challenge Producing More with Less in A Sustainable Way Double food production on same/less land area, water, nutrients, energy by 2050 Increasing world population 6.5B to 8B by 2025 and 9.2B by 2050 Decreasing cultivable land per capita0.45 ha. in 1966 to 0.15 ha. in 2050 Lower growth in grain yieldsLess than 1.0 % per annum in 1990s Malnutrition/Poverty ~ 1billion people malnourished or hungry >1 billion afflicted by poverty Climate changeLimited water availability New pests and diseases

  4. Rice Soybean Wheat Maize Cotton Crude Oil Price 1200 140 120 1000 100 800 80 Rice, Wheat, Maize, Soybean in US$/mil ton, Cotton in US$ cents/pound 600 Crude Oil Price in US$/Barrel 60 400 40 200 20 0 0 J J J J J S S F F S S S F F F D D D A A A A A A A A D A D A O O N N O O O N N M M M M M M M M M M N 2008 J 2010 J 2007 J 2009 J 2006 J January January January January January Prices of Commodities ($/ton) and Oil ($/barrel), January 2006 to December 2010 Source: Compiled by Clive James, 2011

  5. Global Society’s Questions re: GM/Biotech Crops • Can biotech crops produce more affordable food, feed and fiber, and are they safe? • Can biotech crops contribute to sustainability? • Can biotech crops help with climate change mitigation and adaptation? • Can biotech crops contribute to foodsecurity and to the alleviation of poverty and hunger? Source: Clive James, 2011

  6. ADOPTION OF BIOTECH CROPS 1996 - 2010

  7. Accumulated Global Area of Biotech Crops,1996/2010 Biotech Crops Surge Over 1 Billion Cumulative Hectares in 2010 M Acres 2965 1200 1 Billion Hectares = USA land area 1000 2471 1976 800 600 1482 500 Million Hectares 10 years 5 years 400 988 494 200 0 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Clive James, 2011

  8. Global Area (Million Hectares) of Biotech Crops, 2010: by Country Biotech Mega Countries 50,000 hectares or more USA Brazil* Argentina* India* Canada China* Paraguay* Pakistan* South Africa* Uruguay* Bolivia* Australia Philippines* Myanmar* Burkina Faso* Spain Mexico* 66.8 25.4 22.9 9.4 8.8 3.5 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 29 countries which have adopted biotech crops In 2010, global area of biotech crops was 148 million hectares, representing an increase of 10% over 2009, equivalent to 14 million hectares. Increase over 2009 Less than 50,000 hectares 10% Colombia* Chile* Honduras* Portugal Czech Republic Poland Egypt* Slovakia Costa Rica* Romania Sweden Germany Source: Clive James, 2010. * Developing countries

  9. Conventional Biotech Global Adoption Rates (%) for Principal Biotech Crops (Million Hectares, Million Acres), 2010 Million acres 445 180 158 395 160 346 140 296 120 90 247 100 198 80 148 60 33 31 99 40 49 20 0 0 81% Soybean 64% Cotton 29% Maize 23% Canola Source: Clive James, 2010

  10. M Acres 100 250 90 222 Herbicide Tolerance 80 198 Insect Resistance (Bt) 70 173 Herb Tolerance/Insect resistance 60 148 50 124 40 99 30 74 20 49 10 25 0 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2010: By Trait (Million Hectares, Million Acres) Source: Clive James, 2010

  11. SUMMARY– 2010 HIGHLIGHTS • 1 billionth hectare planted in 2010 – about same area as USA or China • Increase from 25 to 29 countries: Pakistan, Myanmar and Sweden, and Germany resumed planting • Strong 10% growth = 14 M ha = 2nd largest gain ever • 87-fold increase from 1996 to 2010 - fastest adopted crop technology • Top ten countries each >1 M ha, 8 are developing • 15.4 M biotech farmers, up 1.4 M – 90% or 14.4 million were small and resource-poor farmers • Stacked traits – 11 countries, 32 M ha (22%) Source: Clive James, 2011

  12. IMPACT OF GM/BIOTECH CROPS

  13. GLOBAL IMPACT of BIOTECH CROPS Source: Brookes and Barfoot forthcoming, and Clive James, 2011 • IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY AND INCOME • – Farm income gains $65 B from 1996 to 2009 • 44% due to cost reduction • 56% due to a production gain of 229 M tons - conservative estimate (spill-over from biotech to conventional) • PROTECTS BIODIVERSITY • – Double crop production on same area of 1.5 B hectares of crop land • – Save forests/land/biodiversity – 229 M tons would have required additional 75 M ha of land to till • – Enhanced farm ecology

  14. GLOBAL IMPACT of BIOTECH CROPS Source: Brookes and Barfoot forthcoming, and Clive James, 2011 • ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT • – Reduce need for external inputs • – Savings of 393 M kg pesticides from 1996/2009 = 9% saved • –Saved 18 B kg CO2 in 2009 – contribution to climate change, removing 8 M cars off the road • –Conservation of soil & water through biotech + no low till • SOCIAL BENEFITS • –Contribution to poverty alleviation of 14.4 M small resource-poor farmers in 2010 & welfare benefits emerging.

  15. Safety of Biotech/GM Crops

  16. THE FUTURE 2011 - 2015, THE REMANING FIVE YEARS OF THE SECOND DECADE OF COMMERCIALIZATION 2015, The Millennium Development Goals Year

  17. TheFuture – 2011-15 • Key Requirements for Success • POLITICAL WILL • ACCESS TO NEW & IMPROVED BIOTECH CROPS • APPROPRIATE AND EFFICIENT REGULATION IN DEV. COUNTRIES Source: Clive James, 2011

  18. The Future –2011-2015. A WAVE OF NEW & IMPROVED BIOTECH CROPS • Many new crop/trait options will be ready before 2015 • Drought tolerance – principal trait–maize in US 2012 • Biotech rice – major crop, up to 1 billion beneficiaries • Quality traits –Golden Rice in 2013, omega-3, others • More biotech crops developed by countries from the South in public inst. – more South-South cooperation • Biotech applications for “Speeding the breeding”–MAS and biotech crops, to provide a faster response to more severe and rapid changes in climate change • Asia will grow more in 2nd decade than first decade Source: Clive James, 2011

  19. Current Numbers and Estimations of Future Numbers of GM Crops Worldwide Source: Stein and Cerezo, 2010

  20. EGYPT EGYPT UGANDA MALI BURKINA FASO KENYA BURKINA FASO TANZANIA TOGO MALAWI NIGERIA SOUTH AFRICA SOUTH AFRICA Implementation of APPR0PRIATE REGULATION will spur adoption of biotech crops in AFRICA Source:Compiled by Clive James, 2011 2010 (3 countries) South Africa, Burkina Faso and Egypt 2015 (up to 10 countries) South Africa, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Mali, Togo, Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Malawi

  21. PAKISTAN PAKISTAN CHINA CHINA VIETNAM PHILIPPINES PHILIPPINES INDONESIA INDIA INDIA MYANMAR BANGLADESH MYANMAR AUSTRALIA AUSTRALIA Projected Biotech Crop Countries in Asia (2010-2015) 2010 India, China, Pakistan, Australia, Philippines and Myanmar 2015 India, China, Pakistan, Australia, Philippines, Myanmar, Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh

  22. ISAAA Prediction for 2nd Decade, 2006-2015 Source: Clive James, 2011

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