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Presentation Overview

Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications Forum Gainesville, Florida October 19, 2001. Presentation Overview. What Prompted This Project? What were our Objectives?

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Presentation Overview

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  1. Choices for the FutureA Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications ForumGainesville, FloridaOctober 19, 2001

  2. Presentation Overview • What Prompted This Project? • What were our Objectives? • How did we carryout the Project? • What did we Learn? Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  3. Origins of Oregon’s Land Use Program • Concerns over: • loss of farm and forest land • sprawl • environmental impacts of growth • Senate Bill 100 Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  4. Key Provisions of SB 100 • 19 Planning Goals dealing with a range of issues including: • housing, transportation, urbanization, farm and forest land • Establishment of Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB’s) Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  5. Beyond SB 100 • Move beyond focus on UGB “Islands” • Willamette Valley Efforts • Partnership for Valley Future Conference (Oregon Progress Board) - 1994 • Willamette Valley Transportation Strategy - 1995 • Willamette Valley Livability Forum - 1996 Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  6. The WVLF is a Voluntary Consortium of Over 80 Members • Forum Purpose - Help Valley residents and decision-makers find and promote solutions to growth and development issues in the Valley • Forum Goals: • Share information • Make connections • Build a vision • Advise state and local officials

  7. Opportunity Pacific Northwest Ecosystem Research Consortium Willamette River Basin Case Study 1000 Friends of Oregon Willamette Valley Alternative Futures Research Project ODOT’s Development of Statewide Model Alternative Transportation Futures Project

  8. Purpose 1) Take a long-range look at the future of land use and transportation in Oregon’s Willamette Valley. 2) Identify policy choices to avoid or minimize future impacts of growth on transportation. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  9. Guided by a 14-member ProjectSteering Committee Robert Liberty, 1000 Friends of Oregon Bob Russell,OHUA Richard Brandman, Metro Susan Brody, WVLF Marcia Kelley, MWACT Tom Schwetz, LCOG Mike Propes, Polk County Joan Baker, EPA Jon Chandler, OBIA Chris Hagerbaumer,OTRAN Bob Cortright, DLCD Gary Johnson, ODOT Ed Gallagher,Governor's Comm. Dev. Office Craig Greenleaf, ODOT Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  10. Approach • Used state-of-art computer modeling techniques • Simulated effects of alternative land use and transportation policies over the next 50 years for 11,500 Sq Mi Valley and State as a whole Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  11. Integrated StatewideComputer Model Analytical tool to help understand complex interactions among Oregon’s economy, land use patterns, and transportation system Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  12. Scope of Integrated Model • Designed to address the policy concerns in Oregon such as the effects of: • Land use and transportation policies on population and employment distributions; • Land use on travel behavior; • Highway capacity increases on travel behavior and land use; • Transit investments on highway use; and • Changes in the state’s population and economy on transportation and land use. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  13. 122-Analysis Zone Structure Not high definition – the model’s resolution lends itself to regional levels of analysis, rather than evaluations of short-distance trips. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  14. Economic Submodel Calculates overall economic activity Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  15. Location Submodel Allocates population and employment growth A B C Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  16. Transportation Submodel Calculates travel resulting from movement of goods/svcs Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  17. Policy Choices Considered • Land available for development • Investments in highways and transit • Cost of driving Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  18. Evaluated Seven Scenarios • Created scenarios with distinct differences to facilitate evaluation of results • Evaluated each to the year 2050 in 5-year increments • Used same statewide population and employment forecasts Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  19. Mile Tax Compact Dev Demand System Improvements Transit & Hwy Management Land Use Measures Hybrids 1&2 Framework for Scenarios No Action Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  20. What have we learned ? Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  21. There’s No Silver Bullet Whatever we do, an additional 1.7 million people will result in increased traffic congestion levels. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  22. We can have an effect on just how crowded highways will become in years ahead. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  23. Combining compact development, increased transit service, additional highway lanes, and higher driving costs reduces 2050 traffic congestion levels in half. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  24. Other Key Findings • Transit: • Transportation pricing increases transit ridership. • Increasing the frequency and convenience of public transit encourages more use. • Freight: • The hybrid approach also provides the greatest benefit for truck freight mobility • Congestion impacts truck freight movement to a greater extent than passenger travel. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  25. Effects on Population and Employment Distribution Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  26. Expanding public transit concentrates jobs in major urban centers while pulling population to outlying cities. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  27. Expanding highways draws both people and jobs to outlying cities. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  28. Overall Findings • No single approach (more efficient land use, infrastructure investments, or roadway pricing) is as effective in keeping traffic moving as is a balanced combination of these approaches (Hybrids). • The model results confirm the interconnection between the economy, land use and transportation and reinforce the importance of regional approaches for transportation planning. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  29. Wrap-up • Process Lessons • Criticisms • Things to improve Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  30. Process Lessons • Changes the Nature of the Planning Question • Difficulty exporting the “Aha”s • Process is Experiential • Brings home the limits of public policy • Value is in exploring broader causes and effects • Decision aiding, not decision making Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  31. Criticisms • Complex relationships defy modeling for current conditions, let alone Fifty years out for a whole state • Highly abstracted results are easily misused/misunderstood by interest groups • Avoids more difficult and detailed planning needed in the short run Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  32. Next Generation Effort currently under way to improve robustness of statewide model by: Increasing geographic resolution (i.e., more analysis zones) and expanding detail of transportation network Accounting for freight transported by rail and barge. Adding capabilities to evaluate peak congestion periods Representing economic interactions between Oregon and rest of the nation. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  33. For more information, visit the Willamette Valley Livability Forum’s web site at:www.wvlf.org/atf.html

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