Modeling risks in the future Failure prevention

1. Modeling risks in the futureFailure prevention Dr. Gerard Gaal Senior Reliability Consultant

2. Agenda • Introduction • The risk definition • Risk Identification • Required data / information • Risk Prevention

3. The Risk Definition • Probability of Failure • (Events per Year) • Asset type • Manufacturer asset • Condition of the asset • Uncertainty in the asset condition Consequence of Failure (Impact ($) per Event) • Loss of function • Environmental impact • Reputation impact • Costs emergency maintenance X

4. Risk Identification • Risk Matrix • Client data • Data Analysis • Task Plan

5. Risk Identification • Databases - failure rate • Constant failure rate • Overestimate PoF

6. Required information / data • Equipment data • P&IDs of the system; • Equipment ID data (age, usage etc.) and tagging (or taken from P&ID); • Failure data • Historical maintenance data from the system (replaced components); • Maintenance data • Maintenance plans for the system (cleaned, preventatively replace components); • Equipment condition data.

7. Risk prevention

8. Risk prevention – spare parts

9. Risk prevention - system

10. Risk prevention - system