DISARM – Defending Interglobal Societies from Asteroid Ruin Mutually

1. DISARM – Defending InterglobalSocieties from Asteroid Ruin Mutually Chelsea Dutenhoffer ASTE-527

2. New NEO Scenario TODAY: Dec 17, 2013 A new near-Earth object is discovered! Earth

3. Problem 9 months from now: Sep 17, 2014 New NEO Earth

4. Threat Classification • M-Type asteroid • Composition primarily Iron-Nickel • Monolithic • Diameter: 1 km • Impact would result in 25% global human mortality • 9-month warning: must intercept asteroid on its final orbit Fragment asteroid using subsurface nuclear explosive

5. Background: Nuclear Fragmentation 1Image from simulation described in paper by Wie & Dearborn, 2010

6. New NEO June 9, 2014: 100 days before impact Earth

7. Background: Debris Cloud Threat Only a small amount of debris impacts Earth Mass of fragments (Tons) Number of fragments Miss Distance (Earth Radii) Miss Distance (Earth Radii) 1 Image from model described in paper by Wie & Dearborn, 2010

8. Proposal • Creation of a global planetary defense agency • Joint, multi-spacecraft program composed of multiple national agencies working together • Seek to sufficiently fragment asteroid such that it poses no threat to civilization on Earth • Remaining fragments are small enough that they can be handled via evacuations Nuclear Destroyers Strategic Deflectors Reconnaissance Craft

9. Phase 1: Reconnaissance Phase 2: Fragmentation Phase 3: Debris cloud monitoring and strategic deflection

10. Reconnaissance Spacecraft (1) • Purpose: • Characterize asteroid • Monitor destruction/deflection attempts • Real-time target acquisition and programming • Provide debris cloud information to Earth • Heritage: • Deep Impact, NEAR, Dawn (NASA) • Rosetta, Don Quixote (ESA) • Hayabusa (JAXA)

11. Reconnaissance Spacecraft (2) • Multiple designs: • CNES (France): spacecraft • DLR (Germany): spacecraft • CSA (Canada): spacecraft • AEB (Brasil): spacecraft • Planetary Resources, Deep Space Industries: spacecraft • ASI (Italy): instrument payload • VIR/VIRTIS spectrometer heritage

12. Nuclear Destroyers (1) • Purpose: • Fragment asteroid • ~1 MT subsurface nuclear explosive • Position explosive to minimize debris near Earth • Heritage: • Nuclear weapons, missiles (USA, Russia)

13. Nuclear Destroyers (2) • Two different systems: Russian and U.S. • Redundancy • Partnership between national space and defense agencies • Repurpose existing nuclear weapons • Good on short timeframe • Put weapons to good use • Agreement already in place to share nuclear information

14. Strategic Deflectors (1) • Purpose: • Deflect/destroy large fragments that pose a threat to Earth • Receive targets from reconnaissance spacecraft, act autonomously • May or may not be nuclear • Heritage: • Ballistic missiles and missile defense systems (US, Russia, Israel, China, France, UK, Italy, India, Japan)

15. Strategic Deflectors (2) • Multiple designs based on missiles and defense: • CNSA (China): spacecraft • ISRO (India): spacecraft • Mars Orbiter Mission, standard Earth-orbiter bus heritage • ISA (Israel): spacecraft • Iron Dome missile system, Ofeq/Amos/Eros bus heritage • JAXA (Japan): spacecraft • Missile defense system and Hayabusa heritage

16. Launch Vehicles

17. Ground Stations Sanya Goldstone Madrid Canberra Malargüe Cebreros New Norcia Svalbard TrollSat Kourou Bear Lakes Byalalu Yevpatoria Galenki Miyun Kashi

18. Advantages of International Coordination • More launch/trajectory options • More ground stations • Access to supercomputers for simulations • Can operate many complementary spacecraft at once International approval politically necessary for nuclear fragmentation mission Mission too large for unilateral action International approval politically necessary for nuclear fragmentation mission Mission too large for unilateral action

19. Future Studies • EMF shielding for spacecraft near nuclear blast • Autonomous target acquisition • Communication between spacecraft without ground in the loop

20. References • Ahrens, T. J., & Harris, A. W. (1992). Deflection and fragmentation of near-Earth asteroids. Nature, 360(6403), 429-433. • Barrera, Mark. "Conceptual Design of an Asteroid Interceptor for a Nuclear Deflection Mission." Planetary Defense Conference. (2004): Web. <http://pdf.aiaa.org/downloads/2004/CDReadyMPDC04_865/2004_1481.pdf>. • Birch, Douglas. "A New Use for Nuclear Weapons: Hunting Rogue Asteroids." The Center for Public Integrity, 16 Oct 2013. Web. <http://www.publicintegrity.org/2013/10/16/13547/new-use-nuclear-weapons-hunting-rogue-asteroids>. • Dearborn, David."Avoiding Armageddon: Diverting Asteroids with Nuclear Explosives." University of California Television: 08 Feb 2010. Web. <http://www.uctv.tv/shows/Avoiding-Armageddon-Diverting-Asteroids-with-Nuclear-Explosives-17643>. • Eyes on the Solar System. 2013. NASA Web. <http://eyes.nasa.gov/>. • Lakdawalla, Emily. "Pretty Pictures: Amazing Asteroid Lutetia." The Planetary Society, 10 Apr 2012. Web. <http://planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2012/3448.html>. • MIM-104 Patriot. Photograph. Wikipedia. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot> • Minuteman III Missile. Photograph. Air Force Reserve Command Space Asset Media GalleryWeb. <http://www.afrc.af.mil/shared/media/ggallery/hires/afg_021221_001.jpg>. • Space Rocket Launch Sites Around the World. Photograph. Space Today OnlineWeb. <http://www.spacetoday.org/Rockets/Spaceports/LaunchSites.html>. • Spinning Asteroid 4. Photograph. Web. <http://media.photobucket.com/user/zorq1/media/Spinning-asteroid-3.gif.html>. • "United States, Russia Sign Agreement to Further Research and Development Collaboration in Nuclear Energy and Security." 16 Sep 2013: n. page. Web. 17 Dec. 2013. <http://energy.gov/articles/united-states-russia-sign-agreement-further-research-and-development-collaboration-nuclear>. • 1 Wie, B., & Dearborn, D. (2010, February). Earth-Impact Modeling and Analysis of a Near-Earth Object Fragmented and Dispersed by Nuclear Subsurface Explosions. In 20th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting (Vol. 10, p. 137). <http://wordpress.engineering.iastate.edu/adrc/files/2012/09/AAS-10-137.pdf>