Confronting the Impact of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Petko Kovatchev Green Policy Institute Black Sea Confere

1. Confronting the Impact of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Petko Kovatchev Green Policy Institute Black Sea Conference Athens, 23 – 24 February, 2009

2. Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience 1. Climate Policy of Bulgaria 2. Climate Change' related problems 3. Climate Change and it's impact on the poor: • Floods, the poors and minorities; • climate refugees; • droughts, floods and agriculture; 4. Conclusions

3. Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Climate Policy of Bulgaria (1) 1. No comprehensive climate strategy; An inter-institutional Commission on Climate Chande does exist „Public debate on climate change organised by the government was intended to stimulate opposition to the specific emissions reduction targets imposed on Bulgaria by the EC. The arguments used by the government were that Bulgaria is a poor country and should be allowed to continue to rely on carbon-intensive technologies. The government's position was to call for a longer period before Bulgarian industry is compelled to meet European requirements.“ 2. National plan for action against the climate change (2005 -2008) – it's over; no new plan at palce 3. Focus on Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Meichanism (CDM) Projects

4. Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Climate Policy of Bulgaria (2) 3.1. Seven protocols (incl. with Prototype Carbon Fund of WB); 3.2. Are the real projects – more than 20 – good or bad? 3.2.1. Lower Arda cascade rehabilitation 3.2.2. Windmils in Kaliakra (INOS), Tzankov Kamuk, Middle Iskar cascade 4. Problems with the quota for 2008 -12 („New Warsaw pact agaisnt the climate“) 5. New energy strategy – more emissions, more risks, less Renewables, efficiency is neglectable 6. Transport sector – infrastructure, biofuels, Operational Programme Transport

5. Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Climate Policy of Bulgaria (3) Who Is Who? Minsitry of Environment and Waters Inter-institutional Commission on Climate Chande Other Minsitries ans Agencies: MEE, MAF, EEA, etc. National Institute on Hydorlogy and Meteorology – BAS National Institute on Cosmis Research – BAS National Coordination Center for Global Change – BAS NGOs Climate Coalition

6. Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Climate Change related problems • Floods (2004, 2005, 2007) • Fires and forest fires (1999, 2000, 2001, etc.) • Droughts and Agriculture imapcts: temperatures for last 8-10 years are higher then ever in Bulgaria +0,4 C (max) and + 0,6-0,8 C (min) • Errosion processes • Health problems – no collection of health related data with linkage to climate change

7. Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Climate Change and Poors Case 1: Floods, the Poors and Minorities 1. While lot more people were affected, the most vulnerable communities are these of Roma minority. a) living in suburbs, very close to rivers, in illegal homes, without proper spatial planning; b) no early warning and protection systems; c) bad condition of water supply and sanitation, low quality of water facilities management (if at all); d) non-tolerant approach towards minorities during the period of distribution of governmental aid after the floods;

8. Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Climate Change and Poors Case 1: Floods, the Poors and Minorities 2. Cases: Ihtiman, Elin Pelin, Tzar Kaloyan (morethan 1000 people affected, 8 died), Pazardjik, etc. Only the 2005 floods caused loses for more than 300 m. EUR for transport (railroads, roads) and agriculture. 3. Compensations are in place, not always as much as needed, but... more important – there is no tradition in insurances, in civil education of protection against natural and industrial cathastrophes. And on the top of it the governance and management of emergency systems are subject of political fights. NGOs add one more problem – bad and ourdated water/river and forest policies.

9. Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Climate Change and Poors Case 2: Climate Refugees a) a new and emerging problem; b) no definition for “climate refugee”; sub-category of “environmental refugee“ (10 mln. people in 1988 worldwide and growing); c) potentially these are people from Middle East, SE Asia, Africa – regions with heavy impact of floods, storms, droughts;

10. Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Climate Change and Poors Case 2: Climate Refugees d) SEE and Black Sea region lay on the way to Europe – problem needs preliminary assessment for potential impacts; e) „Global Migrants for Climate Action“ (Oslo, Norway; local branch in Sofia, Bulgaria) – educational programmes for emigrants from ME to Bulgaria;

11. Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Climate Change and Poors Case 3: Droughts and Agriculture a) 650.000 individuals, only 11.000 aged 25-34! b) Labour decrease in the sector (2007): EU (average) – 2,2% Bulgaria – 11% c) EC expects that 1- 2 million workers (full-time equivalents) to leave the sector in BG and RO by 2014 d) Input on economy – 9,3% gross added value (a drop of 8,6% fro 2005 compared to 2004) e) 78% (118.000) of agribusiness entities are with size less than 1 ESU

12. Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Climate Change and Poors Case 3: Droughts and Agriculture f) In-country migration towards urban areas and emmigration continues. Mostly for socio-economic reasons. g) Bulgaria sufferes lack of workforce in the sector. h) Climate Change might add to these negative processes. There is an urgent need of political programmes and measures to adapt the agribusiness and on better control on over-expanding of urban areas. i) Attraction of qualified labour and balanced intake of immigrants may help the sector. It is a duty of the politicians on local, regional and national level to boost the process of changes in the sector's organisation and management.

13. Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Conclusions 1. Cliamte change problems need a comprehensive national policy, that would guide sectorial and regional strategies. 2. Climate change impacts on people and especially on poors need better investigation and co-operation between institutions ans non-governmental associations within a given country. Exclusion and/or neglection of specific groups (e.g. minorities, remote areas) may lead to unsatisfactory measures and results. 3. There is a need to set definition for „climate refugees“ as well as to include this potential problem in the global climate debate. 4. There is a need for Black Sea countries to co-operate on climate issues (e.g. in the frame of Black Sea Synergy programme).

14. Confronting the Impacts of Climate Change: Bulgaria's Experience Thank you for your attention: petkok@bankwatch.org gpibulgaria@gmail.com 00359 888 420 453