Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments

1. Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments Lara Whitely Binder CIG Seminar October 25, 2007

2. Or how I spent my summer vacation…

3. The Guidebook Effort (Thanks to…) King County • Ron Sims, County Executive • Jim Lopez, Deputy Chief of Staff • Elizabeth Willmott, Global Warming Coordinator • (Doug Howell, State Sen. Erik Poulsen, Jim Simmonds) Others (includes but not limited to) • Josh Foster, NOAA CPO • Dozens of reviewers CIG • Amy Snover • Lara Whitely Binder • Jennifer Kay ICLEI(publication; milestones) • Michelle Wyman, Executive Director, ICLEI - USA • Margit Hentschel, Regional Director, Western States • Annie Strickler, Communications Director

4. Motivation for writing grew out of October 2005 King County climate change conference • Written to compliment ICLEI’s “Climate Resilient Communities” Program • Focused on the process (not a sector), and written for a national audience • Released as a PDF on September 11, 2007 • Hard copies in November 2007 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/guidebook.shtml

5. Why Adaptive Planning? • Significant climate change impacts are projected, and the impacts expected within the next few decades are largely unavoidable. • Decisions with long-term impacts are being made every day. Today’s choices will shape tomorrow’s vulnerabilities. • Significant time is required to motivate and develop adaptive capacity, and to implement changes. • In many (if not most) cases, it will cost more to retrofit for climate resilience than to build for it in the first place. (And there may be benefits…)

6. And Why the Local Scale? • Local, regional, and state governments are on the “front line” for climate change impacts • Managing the risks associated with climate change is an inherent part of ensuring for the safety, health, and welfare of a community (a function of “good government”) • Planning for climate change can benefit the present (e.g., drought management plans) • Preparing for climate change may lead to new economic opportunities and reduce future costs

7. Moving Beyond Common Barriers • My community wants to focus only on mitigation • I’ll wait until other communities are planning for climate change • I don’t have the time, money to deal with climate change now • I don’t have the resources or political support to act • Our planning is based on historical statistics, not future modeling • I don’t know how climate change will affect my community • Climate change action should happen at higher levels of government • I’ll deal with climate change when I see that it is happening • I’ll deal with climate change when you can tell me exactly what I need to plan for

8. What is Adaptive Planning? “climate proof”

9. What is Adaptive Planning? Aims to increase community and ecosystem resilience to climate change by taking steps to proactively reduce the risks associated with climate change. Most importantly… “Adaptation is not one activity or decision, but rather a continuous set of activities, actions, decisions, and attitudes undertaken by individuals, groups, and governments.” -- Adger et al. 2005

10. Planning for Climate Change • MILESTONE 1: • Initiate your climate resiliency effort (Chapters 4-7) • Scope the climate change impacts to your major sectors (Chapter 4) • Pass a resolution or administrative order directing your government to prepare for climate change (Chapter 4) • Build and maintain support to prepare for climate change (Chapter 5) • Build your climate change preparedness team (Chapter 6) • Identify your planning areas relevant to climate change impacts (Chapter 7)

11. Milestone 1a: Scoping Climate Change Impacts Table 4.1 – Sample Summary Table for Projected Regional Climate Change

12. Milestone 1c: Building and Maintaining Support • Identify or cultivate a “champion” for preparedness • Penney and Wieditz 2007 analysis: more successful efforts had a leader(s) at high levels of gov’t committed to learning about and preparing for climate change • Could be current/former elected official or department heads, key business leaders, long-range planners, other respected community members. “Economic champion” may be more powerful than an “environmental champion” in some communities • Identify your target audience for outreach activities

13. Milestone 1c: Building and Maintaining Support cont’d… • Develop your preparedness message • Describe changes that have already been observed (with caveat about not attributing all of the change to climate change) • Describe changes that are expected • Describe how changes may affect the community • Convey the need for action but balance the challenges with optimism • Identify other communities similar to yours that are planning for climate change • Develop a course for action • Acknowledge that questions remain

14. Milestone 1c: Building and Maintaining Support cont’d… • Spread the message • Brown-bag seminars (e.g., recent US EPA Region X series) • Department meetings • Scientific briefings to councils, executive staff • Newsletters, fact sheets, utility inserts, brochures • Websites • Public meetings • Press releases/public statements • Media training events • Events aimed at business and NGOs

15. Milestone 1d: Build Your Climate Change Preparedness Team …or assign a “point person” for coordinating efforts when resources are limited

16. Milestone 1e: Identify Your Planning Areas • Planning areas are the areas within which a gov’t or community manages, plans, or makes policy. Planning areas may be part of built, natural, and/or human systems. • Water supply, stormwater management, road operations and maintenance • Asked to identify current and expected stresses to planning areas based on past and climate change • The inventory of planning areas and, ultimately, prioritization of these areas forms the basis of the preparedness efforts. …or assign a “point person” for coordinating efforts when resources are limited

17. Planning for Climate Change cont’d • MILESTONE 2: • Conduct a climate resiliency study (Chapters 8-9) • Conduct a climate change vulnerability assessment (Chapter 8) • Conduct a climate change risk assessment (Chapter 9) • Prioritize planning areas for action (Chapter 9)

18. Milestone 2a: Conduct a climate change vulnerability assessment • Assess sensitivity of your planning areas • How exposed is the systems to the impacts of climate change? • Is the system subject to existing stress? • Will climate change cause the demand for a resource to exceed its supply? • Are there limiting factors that may be affected by climate change? • Is a species of concerns currently located near the edge or lowest elevation point of its range? • Is there an impact threshold for the system?

20. Milestone 2a: Conduct a climate change vulnerability assessment cont’d… • Evaluate adaptive capacity of the systems • Are the systems associated with this planning area already able to accommodate changes in climate? • Are there barriers to a system’s ability to accommodate changes in climate? • Are the systems associated with the planning area already stressed in ways that will limit their ability to accommodate changes in climate? • Is the rate of projected change likely to be faster than the adaptability of the systems in this planning area? • Are the efforts already underway to address the impacts of climate change related to systems in this planning area?

22. Milestone 2a: Conduct a climate change vulnerability assessment cont’d… • Assess how vulnerable the systems are on the basis of sensitivity and adaptability

23. Milestone 2b: Conduct a climate change risk assessment • Risk = consequence x probability • A qualitative assessment

24. Milestone 2c: Establish the list of priority planning areas • Establishing the priority list recognizes that communities can’t do it all at once • Helps to focus limited $, time • Priority will generally be high risk/high consequence impacts on down. Ranking of middle and lower priorities may be shaped by: • Existing community government priorities • Unique funding or planning opportunities

25. Planning for Climate Change cont’d • MILESTONE 3: • Set preparedness goals and develop your preparedness plan (Chapter 10) • Establish a vision and guiding principles for a climate resilient community • Set your preparedness goals • Develop, select, and prioritize your preparedness actions

26. 3a,b: Guiding Principals for Planning • Increase public awareness of climate change and projected impacts • Develop and maintain technical capacity to prepare for climate change impacts • “Mainstream” information about climate change vulnerabilities, risks, and preparedness into planning, policy, and investment decisions • Increase the adaptive capacity of built, natural, and human systems in your community. • Strengthen community partnerships that reduce vulnerability and risk.

27. Milestone 3c: Choose Preparedness Strategies

28. Milestone 3c (cont’d): Prioritizing preparedness strategies Key questions… • Will the actions meeting your preparedness goals? • Do the benefits exceed the costs? • Is the action robust under a range of climate change scenarios? • Is the action flexible itself, and does it increase flexibility in how a planning area is managed? • Can the action be implemented and in what time frame? Additional factors… • Are there unique “windows of opportunity” for implementing a particular action? • Is the action equitable? • Will the action decrease the risk of losing unique environmental or cultural resources? • Will the action address a risk for which there is greater scientific confidence?

29. Planning for Climate Change cont’d • MILESTONE 4: • Implement your preparedness plan (Chapter 11) • Ensure that you have the right implementation tools • MILESTONE 5: • Measure your progress and update your plan (Chapter 12) • Develop and track measures of resilience • Update your plan

30. MS#4: General Implementation Tools • Zoning rules and regulations • Taxation (including tax incentives) • Building codes/design standards • Utility rates/fee setting • Public safety rules and regulations • Issuance of bonds • Infrastructure development • Permitting and enforcement • Best management practices • Outreach and education • Emergency management powers • Partnership building with other communities

31. MS#5: Measuring Progress • Has awareness about climate change and its projected impacts increased? • Community surveys, track “hits” to web pages, • Track requests for climate change-related publications, • Types/number of climate change questions at public events, • Changes in public officials’ understanding of climate change impacts • Metric: Have you increased technical capacity in your priority planning areas? • Number of on-staff technical experts and/or existence of an on-going relationship with outside climate science advisors, • Existence and regular use of ongoing forums for sharing the latest information on climate change

32. MS#5: Measuring Progress cont’d • Is climate change information being considered in decisions in your priority planning areas? • The number of plans or other governing document in which climate change is addressed, • Existence and thoroughness of guidelines on how to integrate climate change information into decision making, • Existence and number of dedicated staff to help facilitate preparedness actions across departments. • Existence and amount of funds for vulnerability and risk assessments, preparedness actions, and measurement of resilience; • Existence of forums which have been established for information sharing about vulnerabilities, risks and preparedness; information about who attends these forums, what information is shared and used, and how information is shared and used.

33. MS#5: Measuring Progress cont’d • Are community partnerships in place to enable the most robust decision making possible? Have you engaged community stakeholder in development and implementation? • The existence and regular use of ongoing forums for sharing the latest information on climate change with internal and external stakeholders; • The existence of “consensus” reports on vulnerabilities and risks in your priority planning areas, developed collaboratively by a full range of stakeholders; • The existence of a community task force or citizens’ advisory panel on climate change preparedness in your priority planning areas, representing a range of different community perspectives and other specific interests.

34. Appendices • Appendix A. Summary of Observed Changes in the United States • Appendix B. Climate Change Impacts Science Primer • Appendix C. U.S. National Assessment Regional Summaries • Appendix D. Sources of Information on Climate Change Science, Impacts, and Adaptation

36. Who Has Downloaded the Guidebook? • Cities/Counties: • Albany, Annapolis, Athens (Ohio), Bellingham, Bend, Berkeley, Bloomington, Charlottesville, Crystal River, El Cerrito, Evanston, Fairfield, Gaithersburg, Hennepin County (MN), Indianapolis, Issaquah, Kansas City, Keene (NH), Kirkland, Lake Oswego (OR), Los Angeles, Lynden, Marathon, Milwaukie, Olympia, Pasadena, Portland, Roanoke, Sacramento, Sammamish, San Francisco, San Jose, Santa Cruz, Sarasota, Seattle, St. Helena, Sunnyvale • Multiple state/federal agencies in US and Canada (including some in the Midwest! [KS, TX, WI, KY, IL]) • Multiple U.S. and foreign universities (India, Germany, Mexico, Portugal, Norway) • Multiple community planning groups and NGOs (Sierra Club, etc.)

37. Who Has Downloaded the Guidebook? cont’d • U.S. Air Force (McChord AFB, WA) • International communities, groups: • Asian Development Bank, • Australia Greenhouse Office • Cebu City Government (Philippines) • Conservation International (Madagascar) • Tortola Dept. of Disaster Management (British V.I.) • Korea Maritime Institute • Muangklang Municipality (Thailand) • Ruapehu District Council (New Zealand) • Taiwan Sustainable Development Institute • UNEP Caribbean Regional Coordinating Unit (Jamaica) • World Bank

38. What’s Next? • Hard copies of the guidebook • Enhance CIG website to support adaptation planning • Apply for grants to get more guidebooks published • ~2 years: survey users to determine impact and get feedback (guidebook v.2?) • Build case studies

39. Capoeira competition theme: Heat your body, not the planet